Flirting with Models

My guest is Rob Croce, Senior Portfolio Manager at Newton Investment Management Group. This episode is all about what Rob considers to be the two super factors: trend and carry.  More importantly, how Rob uses them to inform how risk is taken within asset classes, across asset classes, and over time. Rob is not afraid to get in the weeds, either.  For example, on the trend side we discuss details such as how to combine trend signals of different speeds, how to balance the probability of a trend signal being noise versus its likelihood of continuing, and how trend signals can be improved using clustering ideas. From high level thoughts about diversification to low level details about measuring bond carry correctly, there’s a lot to unpack in this episode. Please enjoy my discussion with Rob Croce.

In this episode I speak with Michele Aghassi, principal at AQR Capital Management where she serves as a portfolio manager for the firm’s equity strategies. The conversation spans three major points: optimization, the opportunity in emerging equities today, and factor investing.  While these are the headline topics, the underlying theme of the conversation, in my opinion, is the idea of unintended bets.   More specifically, how controlling for unintended bets, whether through optimization or thoughtful consideration, can sharpen your resolve in your conclusions.  Whether it is the influence of China in emerging markets, the influence of currency in foreign equity returns, or crowding effects in factors, being aware of the potential for unintended bets can shape the how, where, and even the when of portfolio construction. Please enjoy my conversation with Michele Aghassi.

In this episode I chat with Jason Josephiac, Senior Vice President and Research Consultant at Meketa Investment Group.   Jason has largely spent his career in the institutional allocation space, first in manager research at United Technology’s pension and now on the consulting side of the table. Given this background, I spend the first half of the conversation trying to peel back the layers of how Jason thinks allocators should attack the portfolio construction process.  This includes his views on the risks of LDI, portable alpha in theory versus practice, and why he prefers to view the world in an absolute risk / absolute return framework. In the back half of the conversation we discuss Meketa’s Risk Managed Strategies framework, with its three buckets of first responders, second responders, and diversifiers.  We cover topics such as long volatility, managed futures, and what actually constitutes a diversifier. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Jason Josephiac.

In this episode I speak with the anonymous twitter user @macrocephalopod. The arc of our conversation follows the arc of his career: beginning with slow-frequency style premia in a hedge fund to building a prop desk that trades mid-to-high frequency strategies in crypto. A large part of the conversation can be characterized as comparing and contrasting the roles through the lenses of research, operations, and risk management.  For example, in what ways is long/short equity meaningfully different than long/short crypto?  Or, how important are topics like market impact, fill ratios, and borrow fails in mid- versus slow frequency strategies? While crypto is the venue, I believe the wisdom imparted in this episode spans all markets. Please enjoy my conversation with @macrocephalopod.

My guest is Roni Israelov, CIO of NDVR.  Prior to NDVR, Roni was a principal at AQR Capital Management, where he worked on global risk models, high frequency factors, and lead the development and oversight of options-oriented strategies. Taking a page from Roni’s career and research, our conversation is far ranging.  We discuss topics from global asset risk models to the application of high frequency signals to tail risk hedging.  While there are insights to glean in each of these topics, I think the conversation helps paint an insightful picture about how Roni thinks about research in general. Towards the end of the conversation we talk about the new research Roni is tackling at NDVR, a financial advisory firm for high net worth individuals.  The role brings new challenges to consider, such as liability management and risk tolerance within the framework of portfolio optimization.  Even though the topics differ, I think you’ll hear a very common thread in how the research is performed. Please enjoy my conversation with Roni Israelov.  

Doug Colkitt is an ex-high frequency trader, ex-MEV bot searcher, and founder of the decentralized exchange CrocSwap. In this episode, we talk about all three.  We begin with high frequency trading, where Doug walks us through the differences between maker and taker strategies, why queue position is so critical for makers, and why volatility is a high frequency trader’s best friend. We then discuss Ethereum-based MEV strategies.  Doug explains what MEV is, how the architecture of the Ethereum block chain allows it to exist, and a high level topology of the different types of MEV strategies that exist.  He also explains how the game theory behind MEV changed dramatically with the launch of Flashbots. Finally, we talk about his new decentralized exchange CrocSwap and its primary innovations, including dynamic fee levels, identification of toxic flow, and vaults that enable KYC. I hope you enjoy my conversation with Doug Colkitt.

My guest this episode is Jeff Yan, founder of Chameleon Trading.   Jeff began his career in high frequency trading at Hudson River Trading but soon moved over to the world of crypto where he built one of the largest market making firms in the space. After Jeff gets me up to speed with the basics of high frequency market making, we dive into some of the more esoteric components, particularly with respect to centralized crypto exchanges.  These include infrastructure quirks, adversarial algorithms, and why HFT P&L might actually be predictive of medium-term price movement. In the back half of the conversation, Jeff explains the problems he sees with current decentralized exchanges and introduces Hyperliquid, a new decentralized trading platform built on its own blockchain to provide performant order book execution for perpetual futures. Please enjoy my conversation with Jeff Yan.

Jason Buck is the co-founder and CIO of Mutiny Funds and maybe one of the most interesting people I know. Jason made, and subsequently lost, a fortune in commercial real estate in the 2008 crash.  This “ego destroying event” was the catalyst for him to completely rethink the idea of resiliency, both in business and investments. Jason spent the better part of the 2010s developing the Cockroach portfolio, a modern take on Harry Brown’s permanent portfolio.  A quarter stocks, a quarter bonds, a quarter CTA, and a quarter long volatility, Jason has designed the portfolio to provide all weather returns, with the possibility of serving as an entrepreneurial hedge. We discuss the value of tail hedging, tail hedges versus long volatility trades, the limits of manager diversification, and managed futures/CTAs versus static commodity positions. As a final note, this episode was recorded live at the Exchange ETF event in Miami. Enjoy.

There is no doubt that the tools of machine learning and the promise of artificial intelligence has captured the imagination of quantitative researchers everywhere.  But I am aware of few fund managers who have wholesale adopted the ideas into their investment stack as thoroughly as Angus Cameron. In this dive back into the archives, we return to Season 4, Episode 6 where I spoke with Angus about his background as a discretionary macro trader and his evolution into a fully systematic, machine-learning driven investment stack.  Not just in how signal is identified, but in how trades are structured and managed. If the idea of a swarm of AI trading bots doesn’t get you excited, this might not be the episode… or the podcast… for you!

In our industry, we’re all too often guilty of asking, “what is your alpha,” rather than, “what is your process for finding alpha?”  Yet, in the long run, it is the process that is important.   I’m equally guilty of this.  In the history of this podcast, I’ve probably overemphasized the outcome of research versus the process of research. There are a few exceptions, though.  And in this dive into the archives, I wanted to return to Season 2, when I spoke with Chris Meredith, Co-Chief Investment Officer at O’Shaughnessy Asset Management. There are a lot of nuggets in this episode, ranging from ingesting data to working with research partners to a discussion of hardware setup.  But the part that has always stuck with me the most was Chris’s process for prioritizing research proposals based upon an AUM-scaled information ratio.   I’ll let Chris explain.  Enjoy.