NAB Morning Call

Topics discussed include China's equity market and rescue package, the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's easy policy, comparison of PMIs, Bank of Canada interest rates and potential rate cuts.

US equities hit new highs reflecting optimism. Weak data and pessimism for Chinese economy don't impact US ebullience. Bond markets were contained. Bank of Japan press conference and revised forecasts may determine future policy changes. NAB Business Survey is out today. Analysis of bond yields, Fed expectations, US vs China equities. Global equity markets, Bank of Japan, Australia's position, and the bond market. Bond market response to US Treasury movements. US Treasury issuing two-year notes, New Hampshire primary, and speculation on Trump vs Biden election.

Tech sector rallies as major tech stocks drive the S&P to its highest level since January 2022. Varying economic conditions seen across different regions, with US consumer sentiment soaring while UK and Europe face a potential recession. Updates on upcoming tech earnings from Netflix, Tesla, and IBM. Discussion on Australia's plans to combat the cost of living crisis and potential impact on rate cuts by the RBA. Insights on recent statements from Fed speakers, rate cut expectations, surprising retail sales in Canada and the UK, and potential government action on the cost of living crisis. Speculation on the impact of upcoming economic events and political developments.

Guest Frances Coppola, UK economist and writer discusses the tie between Bitcoin's value and central bank policies. The recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC is explored, including the potential for increased legitimacy and de-risking of cryptocurrency investments. The impact of ETFs on the price and appeal of cryptocurrencies is debated, as well as the future of regulations and the long-term appreciation of Bitcoin.

Friday 19th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yields continue to push higher as the expectation for delayed cuts mounts. The weekly jobless claims will help the Fed’s case here, with a surprise fall showing how tight the labour market still is. But these are volatile numbers, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, particularly over the holiday period. The same applies to the surprise drop in Australian employment numbers yesterday, although the trend is still showing a rise and there’s nothing to change the RBA’s path for now. Plus, peace hopes for the Middle east and a preview of our first Weekend edition of 2024. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast discusses the pricing for delays in rate cuts in markets, the positive data releases in retail sales growth, the rebound in UK inflation delaying chances of cuts by the BoE, the revised expectation for a rate rise by the RBA, and the current economic slowdown in China, including decreasing GDP growth and retail sales.

Wednesday 17th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABBond yields have ushed higher in the US after the Fed’s Christopher Waller made a speech on the economic outlook at The Brookings Institute, called ‘Almost as Good as it Gets, but will it last?’. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he appeared less dovish than anticipated, hence expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back. Now the question is, will any central banks be cutting in the first half of this year? Today we look at the latest European data, the UK’s muddy employment numbers, as well as looking ahead to a busy 24 hours, with a swathe of China data, UK inflation and US retail number. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 16th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABGerman GDP fell 0.3% last year, even if they did manage to narrowly avoid a technical recession. Europe’s industrial production also fell in the latest data. Yet ECB members continue to talk down expectations for rate cuts at least until the middle of the year. Phil asks JBWere's Sally Auld about the wisdom of keeping rates higher in an economy that is slowing, and does that explain why markets are out of kilter with the central banks rhetoric?. In the US there will be a air bit of focus on what the Feed’s Christopher Waller has to say on rate cuts. There’s also discussion about why the PBoC didn’t cut their medium-term lending facility. Data wise we see Australia’ s consumer confidence today, along with UK wage data, Canada’s CPI and NZ’s quarterly survey of business opinion. Plus the results of the Iowa Caucus. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 15th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThere were big falls in 2 year Treasury yields on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this can be attributed to softer than expected producer prices in the US, which feeds through to the PCE deflator number that the Fed uses as its inflation measure. So what has this done to rate cut expectations? Ray says we’re still not back to where we were in the lead up to Christmas. Inflation is coming down much more slowly in Europe. Will it be delayed further by the crisis in the Red Sea? China published weaker loans data at the end of the week, and the PBoC is expected to lower the medium-term loan rate today. We’ll also see whether there’s any response from China to the Taiwan election result whilst the US holds the first Republican Caucus, in Iowa, where Trump is well ahead in the polls. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 12th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation was a little bit of a surprise. Whilst the headline rate was expected to rise a little, it came in higher than forecast, whilst the core rate didn’t fall as much as had been hoped for. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the Fed’s super core measure is the part of the inflation picture that refuses to come down, all of which could impact the speed at which the Fed will bring rates down. Meanwhile NAB has revised the forecast for Q4 CPI for Australia on the back of this week’s November data. It provides a CPI rate lower than the RBA’s forecast, so does that mean we can expect rates in Australia come down faster?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.