NAB Morning Call

Monday 5th February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS payrolls numbers on Friday showed a surprisingly large upswing, mirroring the ADP numbers earlier in the week. The data also showed a higher-than-expected increase in wages. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this puts paid to any hopes of a March rate cut, with the first fully priced cut expected in June. He adds there’s a chance that inflation data could be revised up a little later this week. The BoE’s Huw Pill meanwhile has been promoting the need to wait longer before cutting, adding to the underperformance of Gilts on Friday. It’s a quiet start to the week, but the main interest locally is obviously the RBA tomorrow, with the rates announcement coinciding with the publication of the Statement of Monetary Policy, followed by a press conference by Michele Bullock. A lot to take in.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd FebruaryPlease note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.Sydney and Melbourne property prices are down from their peaks, whilst Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth reached all time highs last month. But for how long? Will Sydney and Melbourne bounce back? Phil talks to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Residential Research about recent trends in the property market which, despite everything, continues to enjoy rising prices, but for how long? What impact is migration having on demand for dwellings in Sydney and Melbourne. What’s driving the widening gap between house prices and apartments? And what are the trends Eliza thinks we’ll see this year that might surprise you. Even if you are not a property investor, or considering a housing purchase, this is compulsory listening for anyone gathering ammunition for Australia’ favourite dinner party conversation – house prices! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 2nd February 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABIt wasn’t a unanimous decision by the Bank of England overnight. Some of the board wanted to lift rates, the majority wanted to hold, but there was one who still wanted to push them higher. All in all a March cut is now extremely unlikely according to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says those pricing in 100bp of cuts this year have probably got it wrong. We also look at the fed’s decision, one day on. Shares are higher and bond yields lower, so it seems the prospect of delays in cuts hasn’t phased the markets too much. The latest ISM report painted a slightly more optimistic picture for US manufacturing, but prices remain a concern. Wages will be watched keenly, of course, in the non-farm payrolls out on Friday in the US. Jerome Powell said this week he was looking for more “good data” – maybe this will be one of those reports. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 1st February 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABAt the FOMC today a unanimous decision was made to keep rates on hold, but there was suggestion that they’d be cutting rates anytime soon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says this will dent the optimism of those hoping for a lower rate in March. Australia’s inflation numbers yesterday are also unlikely to change the stance of the RBA next month. The Bank of England meets later today – three of the nine board members voted for a hike last time.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 31st January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWe are less than 24 hours away from the next FOMC meeting. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says an indication that the Fed was dropping its tightening bias would help validate the higher expectations for cuts in market pricing. But will it happen? Even though inflation is falling, consumer confidence is also on the rise and there are more than 9 million jobs looking for employees. Also today we discuss Australia’s retail numbers yesterday, what we can expect in today’s CPI and the latest forecasts from the IMF, which paints a slightly rosier picture in their latest World Economic Outlook.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 30th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABFor all the delaying tactics of central bank speakers, markets are still pricing cuts earlier for the fed and the ECB. So who goes first? NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a two-horse race, although markets are pricing in early cuts in Europe. That could all change, of course, depending on what’s said by the FOMC tomorrow. Europe’s destiny will be somewhat shaped by it’s GDP numbers today, which are expected top show that the Euro area is in recession. There’s also discussion about Australia’s retail numbers out today, which are expected to show a fall in December in response to the bounce in sales (because of sales) in November. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 29th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABYou want busy, we’ll give you busy.The FOMC and the Bank of England meet this week and five of the magnificent 7 report earnings. We’ll also see the latest Australian CPI read and payrolls data from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to catch up on data from the tail end of last week, which saw US core-PCE dip below 3%, whilst European data continues to show more of a downturn, with signs that the ECB may be changing its tune on waiting till June to cut rates. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Discussion on the performance of Australian equities in 2023 compared to US shares. Analysis of potential strategies for investing in Australian shares in 2024, considering lower rates and increased consumer cash. Exploring the dominance of financials and materials sectors in the Australian market. Insights on the timing and impact of rate cuts on the share market. Exploration of challenges and opportunities in the real estate sector.

Discusses China's economic recovery efforts, including a reserve requirement cut and potential fiscal stimulus. Analyzes Japan's bond yields and the possibility of positive interest rates. Examines the impact of a half percent cut in China's minimum reserve requirements. Analyzes PMIs in Europe and implications for rate cuts. Highlights the positive performance of the US economy and upcoming economic data releases.

Topics discussed include China's equity market and rescue package, the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's easy policy, comparison of PMIs, Bank of Canada interest rates and potential rate cuts.