NAB Morning Call

Friday 12th January 2024NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS inflation was a little bit of a surprise. Whilst the headline rate was expected to rise a little, it came in higher than forecast, whilst the core rate didn’t fall as much as had been hoped for. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the Fed’s super core measure is the part of the inflation picture that refuses to come down, all of which could impact the speed at which the Fed will bring rates down. Meanwhile NAB has revised the forecast for Q4 CPI for Australia on the back of this week’s November data. It provides a CPI rate lower than the RBA’s forecast, so does that mean we can expect rates in Australia come down faster?  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 11th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -NABAustralian inflation fell faster than expected in November. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent what this means for the rate path from the RBA. He says the monthly data is a relatively new indicator and is still volatile, so we should be cautious in interpreting the numbers and certainly there wasn’t anything to make the RBA too comfortable. We can expect a more definitive market response to US CPI later on. If the number falls below consensus and highlights potential for a faster cutting cycle from the Fed expect that to drive the US dollar lower. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The podcast discusses cautious market sentiment at the beginning of the year, focusing on bond yields, central bank rate cuts, and stock market performance. They also analyze the volatility in bond yields and its impact on interest rate cuts. The hosts mention conflicting economic indicators indicating a struggling economy, as well as the decrease in UK and Australian retail sales. They discuss upcoming economic data releases, Taiwan elections, and factors influencing the oil market.

Friday 22nd December 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.In our final edition of The Morning Call for the year JBWeir’s Sally Auld joins Phil to look back about the surprises of 2023, and to give some of her predictions for 2024. Few expected interest rates to rise as high as they did, but even so, there was a lot of recession talk. Yet, somehow, we avoided it, with much greater expectations for a soft landing. So, is that the story for 2024? Perhaps, but Sally springs five potential wildcards on us that we should have in the back of our minds. 2024 is certainly not going to be a year low on risk.  This is our last Morning Call of the year. Thank you for joining us each weekday, and we hope you’ve enjoyed the addition of the Weekend Edition. We’ll be back on Wednesday 10th January ready to interpret whatever the new year throws at us.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 22nd December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABWell, you could argue that if the US wants to get inflation down to 2% that its already there. Why? NAB’s Ray Attrill points out that the latest quarterly PCE read – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – has been revised down to an annual figure that falls within their target range. The monthly number for November, out tonight, could well reinforce this argument and add more weight for rate cuts early in 2024. In other news, Joe Biden has been discussing increased tariffs on the import of EVs from China. Australia could feel the repercussions of that and could be one factor stopping the Aussie dollar reaching 70 US cents anytime soon. Today, Japan’s CPI and the latest revision to UK GDP. Just like the US numbers, could they also be a downward surprise and reopen recession speculation?This is our last daily edition until January 10th, but this afternoon JBWeir’s Sally Auld gives her thoughts on where we’ve been this year and the prospects for 2024. To be listened to at your leisure over the Christmas break. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 21st December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUK inflation fell much faster than expected and more than the Bank of England predicted. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says its clear that there will be no more rate hikes in the UK, reflected in markets today with a sharp rise in equities and a significant drop in bond yields. There was another Christmas gift in the US Conference Board’s consumer confidence read which showed heightened optimism for the new year. The only negative sign was, perhaps, a rise in the jobs plentiful index which could arguably delay the fall in wage growth. Meanwhile, the EU is clearly ready to move on from worrying about inflation to focusing on government debt, with finance ministers today agreeing that all member states should return to a debt to GDP ratio of 60%. Good luck with that! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 20th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe RBA minutes yesterday were more hawkish than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the central bank is aiming for the mid-point of their 2 – 3 percent target range, rather than the top, raising the prospect of rates staying higher, or a more concerted effort to bring inflation down faster. This adds to the speculation that interest rates will be lifted in February, although a lot will depend, of course, on Q4 CPI, out late in January. Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan did and said little and Canada’s core inflation bounced back up a little. A reminder to all that it isn’t beaten yet.   Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 19th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABUS bond yield rose higher overnight, along with equities, as the prospect of a slower path of rates cuts by the Fed sinks in. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a settling down after the rally in bonds we’ve seen in the last month or so, helped by more Fed speakers overnight talking down the prospect of early rate cuts next year. In other news, the German IFO reader can be added to the list of releases showing a European slowdown. The focus today will be on the RBA minutes. Skye isn’t sure there will be much to gain beyond the statement earlier in the month, but never say never. The same applies to the Bank of Japan meeting today – they are not expected to lift rates, or give an indication of when they will, but they have provided a pre-Christmas surprise before.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 18th December 2023NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NABThe US Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that it was too soon to be looking at rate cuts, despite the FOMC dots plot showing members expecting several cuts next year. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland about Williams’ motivation and the market response. Meanwhile, as data from China remains soft the PBoC is pumping 800 billion Yuan into the economy. Tapas explains the approach and whether it will work. European PMI data came in softer than expected, whilst the UK seems a little more resilient in the services sector. But with a central bank governor reluctant to move too quickly, is stronger data good or bad for Britain? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 15th December 2023Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.When it comes to the use and deployment of AI a Deloitte report reckons many Australian businesses are slow to catch on to the risks and opportunities it presents. This week Phil Dobbie talks to Rhiannon Yetsenga, a manager in the Economic Analysis and Policy team at Deloitte Access Economics, about a recent survey of 2,500 Australian employees and students, which highlights how Generative AI in particular is transforming the workplace. Rhiannon says, unlike many business transformations, this one is being employee led. Companies need to be aware that it is happening, learn how to manage risk and take advantage of the opportunities it presents, as a first-step to more complex AI projects. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.