This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler

Brian Klaas, UCL Associate Professor in Global Politics, discusses how Trump's damaging actions have undermined American democracy, the dangers of Trump 2.0, and the potential for political violence. The podcast explores the normalization of extreme rhetoric, division in America, the consequences of a re-elected Trump, and issues with polling and Trump's campaign.

With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza, tensions rising in Yemen and between China and Taiwan, populists eyeing elections across the world and the spectre of another Trump Presidency, 2024 could be the most dangerous year for global stability in two decades. How will the world’s various crises play out? And could there even be reasons for optimism?Gavin Esler looks at the year ahead with Lord Peter Ricketts, Britain’s first National Security Adviser, former chair of the Joint Intelligence Committee and author of Hard Choices – an exploration of Britain’s place in the world. • “All that’s certain in 2024 is uncertainty.” – Gavin Esler• “If there’s been a strategic loser in Ukraine so far, it’s Vladimir Putin… He’s been forced into a junior partnership with China.” – Peter Ricketts• “I’m not so worried about the far right in Europe. I’m much more worried about Trump in the White House.” – Peter RickettsBuy Hard Choices through our affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s fees help support independent bookshops too.Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With his playbook of brutal invasion, cyberwar and intimidation, Vladimir Putin is the nightmare neighbour of every country that borders Russia. Beyond his crimes in Ukraine, could Putin’s ambitions run wider – into the heart of Europe? Gavin Esler explores how Russia is using weak spots along its border from Estonia to the Balkans to fan feuds, create chaos and tear at the fabric of the global order.Jasmin Mujanović explains how Russia is pushing to reignite the simmering Serbia/Kosovo dispute. And Putin-watcher Mark Galeotti explains that while the brutal system that the Russian tyrant has built looks invulnerable, behind the façade it is worryingly brittle.• “For most of Putin’s reign Russia has been at declared or undeclared war with someone. What he likes is a certain low level of chaos.” – Mark Galeotti• “Russia saw Serbia as a really cheap opportunity to invest in low-level chaos… which is now becoming more serious.” – Jasmin Mujanović• “Putin is going to look at what will be politically bloody, hard-fought American Presidential election and see how he can use it to tear the United States apart.” – Mark GaleottiSupport This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more.Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From ‘Stop the Boats’ to ‘Build the Wall’, mass migration is the great upheaval of our times, opening a poisonous political divide. Will population movement really tip our world into chaos as the populists and far-right agitators warn? Will democracies have to choose between mass migration or low growth? Are hardliners like Italy’s Meloni or Hungary’s Orbán really cutting migration to their countries like they say? And what does “solving” migration even mean?Just days after Suella Braverman’s incendiary Commons speech and Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick’s theatrical resignation over the Rwanda policy, Gavin Esler looks for answers with Prof Hein de Haas, author of How Migration Really Works. • “Immigration is the price you pay for being a wealthy market economy. That’s the bottom line.”• “Migration rhetoric is a vote-winner but it’s very dishonest… We have to be aware of what politicians say and what they do.” • “The Rwanda policy is an act of desperation. It’s been a huge failure and a political distraction.”Buy How Migration Really Works through our new affiliate bookshop and you’ll help fund This Is Not A Drill by earning us a small commission for every sale. Bookshop.org’s commission helps support independent bookshops too.Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon to get early episodes, merchandise and more. Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Exploring the increase in global conflicts and their potential dangers. The changing nature of conflicts, including trust state conflicts, civil wars, and internationalization. Challenges in Gaza's governance and reconstruction. Assessing support for Ukraine and exploring the consequences of unresolved conflicts. The connection between climate change, conflict, and the lack of governance in fragile states.

Why did Ukraine’s much-discussed counter-offensive of summer 2023 fail to turn the tide of the War? What’s really happening on the ground, and how might the third year of this historic conflict take shape? Conflict journalist Oz Katerji reports from Ukraine to discover how and where Kyiv has succeeded and faltered – what would change the war in Ukraine’s favour – and what the spectre of a Trump Presidency would mean for Ukraine’s freedom. We’re proud that Oz, a seasoned reporter, film-maker and podcasters, is joining the TINAD team. He’ll be hosting special editions on Ukraine and other flashpoints around the world at regular intervals. Gavin Esler returns next week.Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more.• “The problem is the people watching the war on their screens and not taking account of how it’s happening in reality, on the ground.” – Maria Avdeeva, Ukrainian defence analyst• “The Brits understand this conflict far better than the Americans, for the simple reason that the Brits have a presence embedded on the ground.” – Michael Weiss, The Insider• “Everyone in Ukraine is aware that the war will be long. Ukraine will win. There is no other option. But it won’t be as fast as we were hoping a year ago.” – Maria Avdeeva• “Trump’s first impeachment was over Ukraine and he sees it as an abscess to be lanced… A Trump presidency would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine.” – Michael WeissWritten and presented by Oz Katerji. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Hamas atrocities of 7th October and Israel’s overwhelming retaliation have plunged the region into its worst chaos in 50 years. How deeply involved was Iran in the Hamas attacks? Did Netanyahu’s political desperation and strategic bungling really open the door to the most anguished day in Israel’s history? And is there a way to end the carnage before it spreads? Gavin Esler looks for answers with author and journalist Kim Ghattas who is based in Beirut – a Hamas stronghold – and Guardian columnist Jonathan Freedland, author of The Escape Artist: The Man Who Broke Out of Auschwitz to Warn the World. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more.• “Iran has been using the Palestinian cause as a way to assert itself as a leader in the region for 45 years.” – Kim Ghattas• “Netanyahu needs to be in the Prime Minister’s chair to stay out of prison.” – Jonathan Freedland• “Hamas thought everyone would pitch in after their attacks, but there has been no uprising. In the Arab world you’re starting to hear ‘Iran will fight Israel to the last Arab… or to the last Sunni.’” – Kim Ghattas• “Like most militaries, Israel does not want to see photographs of dead children. To Hamas, photos like those are an asset in the battle for world opinion.” – Jonathan FreedlandWritten and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill – the new name for Doomsday Watch, with new host Gavin Esler. In our first episode: It’s one year to the US Presidential election. If Donald Trump is the victor he will be unbound by any fear of legal or democratic restraint. What will Trump do to get there? And what will he do if he wins?Gavin Esler talks to Bill Kristol, editor-at-large of conservative magazine The Bulwark, who has broken with the Republicans in revulsion at the party’s surrender to the MAGA ideal; and historian Sarah Churchwell, author of Behold America: The Entangled History of “America First” and “The American Dream”, to understand the United States’ fateful choice. Support This Is Not A Drill on Patreon for early episodes, merchandise and more. Buy Behold America here and help the podcast via our affiliate links.• “The worst thing is that Trump is succeeding because of the demagoguery, the incitement, the violence and the contempt for the rule of law – not in spite of it.” – Bill Kristol • “Trump is of a kind that we’ve seen before, but of a degree that we’ve never seen before. And he’s achieved power that we’ve never seen before.” – Sarah ChurchwellWritten and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome to This Is Not A Drill, the brand new weekly show about geopolitical threats, where they come from and how to fight them. We’re building on the legacy of Doomsday Watch to look even more widely about the dangers, corruption, conflicts, disinformation, rivalries and ruthless realpolitik that are making our world ever-more dangerous. And we’ve got a brand-new host: Gavin Esler, former BBC News presenter, Washington correspondent and host of Newsnight. Gavin will be talking to highly experienced diplomats, academics and journalists to guide you through the world’s worsening geopolitics nightmare.New episodes start weekly from Weds 14 Nov 2023 – and two days early for Patreon supporters. Follow now on your favourite app. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, for the second time since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, world leaders met to discuss the challenges facing the NATO security alliance.With two previously isolationist nations, Finland and Sweden, newly joined or about to join - this week’s Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania spoke of a newly energised organisation.But perhaps predictably in an age of war in Europe - there remain tensions and very big questions. The biggest of all - what to do about Ukraine?To discuss what it means for the war in Ukraine; the nature of global security, and the still-dominant role the USA plays in this post-WW2 organisation, Arthur Snell is joined by: - Dr Ulrike Franke: senior fellow at the European Council on foreign relations - John Lough: Chatham House associate fellow of the Russia & Eurasia Programme and the former NATO man in Moscow - Steven Pifer: former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior fellow at The Brookings Institution.Written and presented by Arthur Snell. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Assitant Producer Liam Tait. Art by Jim Parrett. Original music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. Doomsday Watch is a Podmasters production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices