Exploring the increase in global conflicts and their potential dangers. The changing nature of conflicts, including trust state conflicts, civil wars, and internationalization. Challenges in Gaza's governance and reconstruction. Assessing support for Ukraine and exploring the consequences of unresolved conflicts. The connection between climate change, conflict, and the lack of governance in fragile states.
The number of violent conflicts in the world is increasing and lasting longer, threatening to merge into wider conflagrations, as chaos becomes a route to power for autocrats and populists.
The changing nature of conflicts, the involvement of international players, and geopolitical competition are contributing factors to the increase in global conflicts, while political distraction, frozen UN Security Council, and decreased commitment to peace initiatives hinder effective conflict resolution.
Deep dives
Increasing Global Conflicts and their Impact
The world is experiencing a significant increase in conflicts, with active conflicts in 55 states in 2022, lasting an average of 8 to 11 years. Approximately 2 billion people, a quarter of the world's population, are living in conflict-affected areas. The number of forcibly displaced individuals due to conflict has reached 114 million. The changing nature of conflict, such as more internal civil wars and international involvement, along with shifting geopolitical dynamics, have contributed to the difficulty in resolving conflicts. Political distraction, reluctance to invest political capital, and a frozen UN Security Council further complicate resolution efforts.
Factors Contributing to the Rise of Conflict
There are several factors contributing to the increase in global conflicts. Following the economic crisis of 2008, countries turned their focus inward, leading to a period of political domestic concerns and a shift towards isolationism. The changing nature of warfare, easier access to technology and arms, and the involvement of international players have further complicated conflict resolution. Additionally, a more multipolar world and geopolitical competition have contributed to increased conflict. The lack of political attention and decreased commitment to peace initiatives have hindered efforts to resolve conflicts effectively.
Challenges for International Institutions and Mediation
International institutions, particularly the UN Security Council, are facing challenges in addressing and resolving conflicts. The Security Council has become increasingly contentious and paralyzed, making it difficult to pass resolutions and take decisive action. The UN's functionaries and agencies are limited in their ability to assert themselves without the cooperation of powerful states. Conflicting interests and lack of cooperation among states and mediators have further complicated conflict resolution efforts. The lack of binding mechanisms and selective engagement by some Western actors have also exacerbated the challenges faced by international institutions.
Outlook for World Peace and Cooperation
The prospects for world peace seem uncertain, with concerns about escalating conflicts. However, it is important to keep the current situation in perspective. While conflicts are increasing, the West and NATO still possess significant military capabilities and alliances. Other factors, such as economic strength and the ability to cooperate and find solutions, provide optimism for addressing global challenges. Despite the complexity and urgency of the issues, there are opportunities for middle powers and broader coalitions to contribute to conflict resolution and international cooperation. Recognizing the unsustainability of the current trajectory may spark new approaches and a renewed commitment to finding viable solutions.
Are we entering a new age of war? The number of violent conflicts in the world is increasing, and they’re lasting longer. Wars in Ukraine and Israel/Palestine threaten to merge into wider conflagrations. Autocrats and populists see chaos as a route to power. America can no longer guarantee global stability, and democracy is faltering.
Gavin Esler speaks to international conflict analyst Emma Beals and Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King’s College London Sir Lawrence Freedman about the new dynamics of conflict… and whether we can avoid another global war.
Written and presented by Gavin Esler. Produced by Robin Leeburn. Original theme music by Paul Hartnoll – https://www.orbitalofficial.com. Executive Producer Martin Bojtos. Group Editor Andrew Harrison. This Is Not A Drill is a Podmasters production