This Is Not A Drill with Gavin Esler
Are we stumbling into World War Three?
Dec 6, 2023
Exploring the increase in global conflicts and their potential dangers. The changing nature of conflicts, including trust state conflicts, civil wars, and internationalization. Challenges in Gaza's governance and reconstruction. Assessing support for Ukraine and exploring the consequences of unresolved conflicts. The connection between climate change, conflict, and the lack of governance in fragile states.
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Quick takeaways
- The number of violent conflicts in the world is increasing and lasting longer, threatening to merge into wider conflagrations, as chaos becomes a route to power for autocrats and populists.
- The changing nature of conflicts, the involvement of international players, and geopolitical competition are contributing factors to the increase in global conflicts, while political distraction, frozen UN Security Council, and decreased commitment to peace initiatives hinder effective conflict resolution.
Deep dives
Increasing Global Conflicts and their Impact
The world is experiencing a significant increase in conflicts, with active conflicts in 55 states in 2022, lasting an average of 8 to 11 years. Approximately 2 billion people, a quarter of the world's population, are living in conflict-affected areas. The number of forcibly displaced individuals due to conflict has reached 114 million. The changing nature of conflict, such as more internal civil wars and international involvement, along with shifting geopolitical dynamics, have contributed to the difficulty in resolving conflicts. Political distraction, reluctance to invest political capital, and a frozen UN Security Council further complicate resolution efforts.
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