In Moscow's Shadows

A short. 'one act' special: with the news (still unconfirmed) that Navalny is being sent to IK-2 penal colony in Vladimir region, I look at the prison, and what that may mean for him.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

With Navalny in prison, the opposition mobilising, and the state cracking down, what will happen next?The only honest answer anyone can give is "no idea." So instead of trying to make predictions, I instead offer up a variety of scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities and also highlight some specific issues we need to bear in mind.In the second part, I build off a piece In wrote in the Spectator and address the question of whether 'Iron Felix' Dzerzhinsky will be returning to Lubyanka Square - or at least his statue - or if Alexander Nevsky will doom him to perpetual exile.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

It's a deliberately provocative title, I know, but how might the 'Navalny effect' impact late Putinism? A swing towards blunt and uncompromising authoritarianism? A genuine 'reform that you may preserve' conservative reformulation? The truth is likely to be something between the two, but it is worth considering that even if Navalny is not successful in bringing genuine democracy to Russia - we'll have to see - he may nonetheless improve ordinary Russians' lot.In the second half, quite why did the Kremlin deliver such a kicking to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell?The articles I mention are this from The Bell (in Russian), and this from BNE Intellinews.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Yesterday saw major protests all across Russia, a genuine success for Team Navalny. But now what? My rough and uncurated first thoughts...You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Another short 'cellcast', though given its timeliness, going public straightaway.In this cellcast, recorded on 18 January 2021, I take a very speculative, un-thought-through look at the Kremlin's options for dealing with Navalny now he is once again in its hands as of last night...You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

The FSO, the Federal Protection Service (or Federal Guard Service) is more that just Putin's dark-suited bodyguards, or the goose-stepping soldiers at the Eternal Flame. In my latest exploration of Russia's security community, I look at these 'watchers of the watchers' who even do their own opinion polling. (The Meduza article I reference is here.)In the second part, I look at the opposition's concerns about Trump's twitter ban, an interesting study of electoral politics by Andras Toth-Czifra and a piece in Nezavisimaya gazeta, and look for some optimism...You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

So Russia has a new laser system, called Peresvet. Pere-who? This gets me talking, for the last of the Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas cellcasts, about the battle of Kulikovo in 1380 - and why it matters in 2021.(It is, by the way, a bit of a fascination for me, and if you're interested you can find more about it in my book Kulikovo 1380: the battle that made Russia)Support the show

How did Defence Minister Shoigu make it from graduating from Krasnoyarsk Poly as a construction engineer to being discussed as a potential future president? In this third cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I give my quick take.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including the other Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, as only the cellcasts are being made generally available) right here. Support the show

How might a scandal from 2019 affect who runs the FSB in 2021? And should we consider levels of elite embezzlement a good index of their confidence? In this second cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I take a look at the agency's future.One erratum, by the way, that serves me right for trying to convert big numbers on the fly: the 120 billion rubles I mention at one point is, of course, £120 million, not £12 million...You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including the other Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, as only the cellcasts are being made generally available) right here. Support the show

Today in 1979, Afghanistan was waking up under Soviet domination. In this first cellcast of the 2020-21 Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas, I pull out three aspects of that conflict of relevance today.The Levada poll I mention on Navalny, by the way, is here. And if anyone is interested in my PhD on the impact of the war, the book-of-the-thesis is Afghanistan: the Soviet Union's last war (1995), and I have a book on Operation Storm-333 coming out this March from Osprey.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including the other Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas) right here. Support the show