In Moscow's Shadows

Rumours that Zhirinovsky is going to step down from leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party look more credible these days, and oligarch Oleg Deripaska is even being mooted as a successor. So, it's time for a bit of an exploration of the LDPR, what it stands for, what role it plays, and where it might go.After the break, I take a quick look at a story in Znak on police procurement (here) and the Amazing Activities of the Singular Bastrykin. I talk about Korolev in this cellcast and in this article.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Who are the main 'siloviki' or 'men of force,' the heads of Russia's security structures? In response to a request from a patron, I give a run-through of the people and their prospects.Relevant other IMS episodes I mention are on Shoigu (here), Naryshkin (here) and Patrushev (here).And then after the break, I take a quick look at Biden's "killer" comment, how it was received, and what it might - or might not - mean.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

All the Ms. First of all, as a counter to the understandable pessimism about Russia at the moment, I look at some of the aspects of Moscow that still make me marvel, and consider how they offer signs of long-term (which really means post-Putin) hope for Russia as a whole.And then after the break, we have mob murder, as the newly-opened case of the 2009 murder of old-school gangster Vyacheslav 'Yaponchik' Ivankov says something not just about the decline of the traditional criminal 'vory v zakone' but also how the Kremlin tries to manage the underworld balance of power. (I talk about this wider issue much more in my book The Vory)You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

A short. 'one act' special: with the news (still unconfirmed) that Navalny is being sent to IK-2 penal colony in Vladimir region, I look at the prison, and what that may mean for him.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

With Navalny in prison, the opposition mobilising, and the state cracking down, what will happen next?The only honest answer anyone can give is "no idea." So instead of trying to make predictions, I instead offer up a variety of scenarios, to illustrate the range of possibilities and also highlight some specific issues we need to bear in mind.In the second part, I build off a piece In wrote in the Spectator and address the question of whether 'Iron Felix' Dzerzhinsky will be returning to Lubyanka Square - or at least his statue - or if Alexander Nevsky will doom him to perpetual exile.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

It's a deliberately provocative title, I know, but how might the 'Navalny effect' impact late Putinism? A swing towards blunt and uncompromising authoritarianism? A genuine 'reform that you may preserve' conservative reformulation? The truth is likely to be something between the two, but it is worth considering that even if Navalny is not successful in bringing genuine democracy to Russia - we'll have to see - he may nonetheless improve ordinary Russians' lot.In the second half, quite why did the Kremlin deliver such a kicking to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell?The articles I mention are this from The Bell (in Russian), and this from BNE Intellinews.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Yesterday saw major protests all across Russia, a genuine success for Team Navalny. But now what? My rough and uncurated first thoughts...You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Another short 'cellcast', though given its timeliness, going public straightaway.In this cellcast, recorded on 18 January 2021, I take a very speculative, un-thought-through look at the Kremlin's options for dealing with Navalny now he is once again in its hands as of last night...You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

The FSO, the Federal Protection Service (or Federal Guard Service) is more that just Putin's dark-suited bodyguards, or the goose-stepping soldiers at the Eternal Flame. In my latest exploration of Russia's security community, I look at these 'watchers of the watchers' who even do their own opinion polling. (The Meduza article I reference is here.)In the second part, I look at the opposition's concerns about Trump's twitter ban, an interesting study of electoral politics by Andras Toth-Czifra and a piece in Nezavisimaya gazeta, and look for some optimism...You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

So Russia has a new laser system, called Peresvet. Pere-who? This gets me talking, for the last of the Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas cellcasts, about the battle of Kulikovo in 1380 - and why it matters in 2021.(It is, by the way, a bit of a fascination for me, and if you're interested you can find more about it in my book Kulikovo 1380: the battle that made Russia)Support the show