In Moscow's Shadows

Quite what is Russia's game plan over Ukraine? It seems hard to explain through common sense, so I conduct a thought experiment: what would Putin have to be thinking to believe that a war, with all the consequent and catastrophic political and economic costs, might make sense?In the second part, I look at some developments in the Russian underworld that suggest that a long nightmare - the prospect of nation-wide mafia wars - might well actually be on the wane.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Something of a miscellany. First of all, latest thoughts - that turn out to be disappointingly inconclusive - about what's going on with Ukraine.Then reflections on the appointment of a career cop as the new head of FSIN, the Federal Penitentiary Service, and the prospects for pragmatic reform. (The 2011 blog I mentioned is here.)Then short and sour comments about the vacuous and dangerous virtue signalling that is the proposed Congressional resolution not to recognise Putin as president “if the autocrat remains in power” after 2024.And finally, in response to a question from a Patron, observations about how Russians are getting by, and the increased visibility of pawn shops (lombards, in Russian).You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

In the first part, a little exploration of MID, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its decline - and yet why it still ought not to be taken lightly. Then in the second half I look at the current crises in Belarus and Ukraine.The article by Kadri Liik I mentioned is here, and my earlier 'Free Sergei Lavrov!' article here. I also looked at the Belarus crisis (and why it should not be turned into a 'Putin story') here. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

While still processing a month spent in Russia, I feel that the uniting leitmotif is survivalism, that every sector - from ordinary Russians through the liberal intelligentsia and the bureaucracy, all the way to the Kremlin - are hunkering down, bracing for winter. I explore what this means to each.Then in the second half I tackle a series of questions sent in by patrons, from whether I felt at risk in Russia (in short: no) to whether you can now get decent parmesan there (in short: yes). If anyone has any other such random questions they'd like me to answer, do send them my way.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

A trip to Tula, 200km south of Moscow, provides a chance to mix a little history and travelogue with some thoughts about what the city reveals about the nature of provincial life, regional politics and the state economy versus the market economy. In the second half, I look at Tula's governor Alexei Dyumin, a former bodyguard to Putin and for some still a potential successor. How much do governors matter?The travel blog I mention is Travels in Deepest Muscovy, which will later feature a photo-essay or two in Tula.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Just back to Russia, my first trip since February 2020, and for this podcast I try something different - a random collection of impressions, mainly recorded on the street (so apologies for the often poor sound quality). Normal podcasting will resume shortly!You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Two quite big topics this episode. First of all, the restrictive new rules on 'Foreign Agent' status that, if applied, would make it almost impossible to discuss military, security and even space topics. They are as much about drawing sharper lines - are you with us or against us - as encouraging self-censorship.Then, after the break, some rumination on 'hybrid war' - why it's not that helpful a term, and why, when we talk about Russia, there is no one notion of 'hybrid war' but three.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

I confess at this stage I couldn't think of much to say about the Russian elections that wasn't obvious, or hadn't been said, so instead I recorded a 'magazine' episode covering a range of other topics:Team Navalny's latest video (here), this time on the corruption of Foreign Minister Lavrov, and why the opposition needs a new big ideaThe Zapad-2021 exercises and their political significance (coverage by Mike Kofman here and Konrad Muzyka here)Three stories that went under-reported in Russia: on AUKUS, on Putin's health (my Spectator piece is here) and Sputnik VRumours that Sergei Shoigu is being sent to Siberia - in a good way.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

A shorter episode that looks at a vicious criminal's end in a prison riot in Kamchatka, and after talking a little about prison realities in Russia, considers some possible lessons for Russia as a whole.I mention the vexed issue of police numbers, something I discuss here and here.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Sometimes it's worth digging into what look like less important stories, to see what lessons the offer about the big picture developments, so I tackle three - who's likely to be the next ambassador to Cape Verde, why airfare hikes contribute to street violence, and why Naryshkin is now claiming to be a long-time mate of Putin's - and see what I can make of them.For those figures I threw out, the proportions of staff of different Presidential Administration departments estimated to be current or former security officers are:63% Security Council (SB) Secretariat 28% Foreign Policy Directorate (UVneshP)19% Expert Directorate (UE)71% Directorate for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries (UMKSZS),62% Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation (UPS) For the share of one-to-one or one-to-few meetings with the President in 2019:1% Kostyukov (GRU)5% Zolotov (National Guard(5% Kolokoltsev (MVD)11% Naryshkin17% Bortnikov (FSB)23% Shoigu (MoD)29% Patrushev9% OtherYou can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show