In Moscow's Shadows

For an experimental change in format, this episode is given over to a long conversation with Fabian Burkhardt of IOS-Regensburg, who works on Russian elites, institutions and authoritarian politics. He gives his sense on the state and loyalties of the elites, on the chances of any kind of palace coups, and the degree to which we are all flailing around in the fog of (info)war.As for relevant publications of Fabian's on the topic of the podcast: "Institutionalising Authoritarian Presidencies: Polymorphous Power and Russia’s Presidential Administration" , "Foolproofing Putinism", "The Fog of War and Power Dynamics in Russia’s Elite: Defections and Purges, or Simply Wishful Thinking?"Useful sources for listeners some of which Fabian used in his prep or mentioned in podcast:Adam Casey, "Putin Has Coup-Proofed His Regime"Timothy Frye "Why Regime Change in Russia Might Not Be a Good Idea"Vladimir Milov "Ugroza perevorota v Rossii. Okruzhenie Putina sposobno na zagovor? FSB, Sovbez, FSO, Genshtab i drugie." [The threat of a coup in Russia. Is Putin's entourage capable to stage a conspiracy? FSB, Security Council, FSO, General Staff and others]Mark Galeotti "Putin is devouring his children", "Putin’s totalitarian turn"Stanislav Markus "Meet Russia’s oligarchs, a group of men who won't be toppling Putin anytime soon"Farida Rustamova "They’re carefully enunciating the word clusterf*ck", "'Now we're going to f*ck them all.' What's happening in Russia's elites after a month of war"Andrey Pertsev "Blindsided Russia’s top officials were caught off guard by Putin’s war in Ukraine. Many of them want to resign — but can’t.", "Filling the void Putin’s administration no longer hopes to take Kyiv. The Russian president has yet to make a final decision."Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan "Could the Siloviki Challenge Putin?"Dossier Center "Beseda na doprose. Deistvitelno li arestovan glava 5-i sluzhby FSB" [Interrogation of Beseda. Was the head of the FSB's Fifth Service really arrested?]You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Who is General Dvornikov, the new Russian operational commander for the war in Ukraine? Will Prime Minister Mishustin and the other technocrats be able to prevent the militarisation of the Russian economy? Four scenarios for the war. And why it's all about 'enemies' versus 'traitors' for Putin now...The piece on Rusich I mentioned is here, and the Telegraph piece is here.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Another brief and unedited podcast trying to track some of the latest Ukraine-related Russian stories, all distinctly depressing:- the war crimes of Bucha (and the Kirill Shamiev twitter thread I mentioned is here)- comparing Ivan the Terrible and Vladimir (Putin) the Pretty Terrible Too - the dilemmas for ordinary Russians - and why today's support may not be tomorrow's (the Farida Rustamova piece I mention is here)You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

A brief and thoroughly unedited look at four particular issues relating to Ukraine:- the 'new strategy' of concentrating on the Donbas- where's Shoigu?- fear and loathing in the National Guard- a comparison with medieval Lithuania (yes, really)You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

Rather than try and follow the day-by-day, I tackle one of the tricky conundra: not just why the Russians have done so badly, but why the Ukraine war hasn't been fought the way the Russian army is meant to fight. My suspicion is that it is what happens when autocracy meets technocracy, and I explain what I mean.In the second part, I look at the current claims that Colonel General Beseda of the FSB is under arrest and the hints of opening divisions in the security apparatus, as well as the wider question of how we try and make sense of it all in the midst of active information warfare being waged on every side.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

What can one say about the unfolding horror in Ukraine. In this podcast I alight on a few specific issues: Putin's nuclear signalling (at least I hope that's all it is), the idiocy of 'No Fly Zones' in this context, Russian morale, and how, if Putin is re-booting the Brezhnev franchise, this could in the long-term let Russia finally complete its reform process.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

It may well be, as US/UK leaders are saying, that it is too late, that Putin is determined to wage war on Ukraine, but even as we assiduously wargame the potential routes of advance and attack, we should continue to try and peacegame, too, to apply the same imagination to framing any potential settlement. It would be exquisitely difficult and complex, but right up until the tanks cross the border, we ought to try. Today, I try and sketch out some thoughts as to what such a deal - one that does not sell Kyiv down the river - might involve. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

With Schrodinger's War both imminent and unthinkable there is, to be blunt, only so much that can usefully be said about Russia and Ukraine. I start with a few observations on whether insiders are trying to warn Putin off escalation and what it means if Russia does launch a full-scale invasion (in short, welcome the Brezhnevian stagnation and the rule of the hawks), before turning to some listener questions. Specifically, why Russia is so good at hacking the international system, whether it will stay in Syria through 2022 (yes) and whether Bortnikov will retire (also yes). I talk about putative FSB director-elect Korolev in a piece for Raam op Rusland here, and talked about the debate over recognising the Donbas pseudo-states in this IMS episode. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

I spin a post on the Nezygar Telegram channel out to explore the current uncertain state of play over Ukraine, covering topics from the current US claims of what its intelligence says about both Zelenskyy and Putin to whether recognising the Donbas pseudo-states is being floated in Moscow precisely as an escape route.  In the second segment, I tackle some of the requests for predictions sent in by Patrons and offer what turn out to be some disappointingly unexciting responses. The article on Minsk II for the Council on Geostrategy is here.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here. Support the show

One of the short bonuses provided to Patrons over the 2021-22 Christmas and New Year season, released generally a month later.A Christmas tale of villainy and corruption.There are all kinds of rumours about embezzlement and theft at a state bank, but the directors swear blind that all is fine.The chief teller is clearly rich beyond his means, and his wife is never seen but that she is dripping with diamonds, but no one sees fit to enquire further.Eventually, when it turns out that the bank has been plundered into near-bankruptcy, there’s an enquiry, but the chief director of the bank – who incidentally is a close crony of the ruler – is put in charge of the investigating commission.And this is despite the eye-witness account of his removing bullion from the bank’s vaults as the scandal breaks.Lo and behold, all the blame is placed on the teller and sundry other small fry, while the directors go scot free.Sounds like just another tale of modern Russia?You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials (including retrospectively the archive of past bonus posts) right here. Support the show