Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

In this special episode to coincide with the publication of Moody’s 2023 Global Credit Conditions Outlook, we discuss how persistent inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth will cast a cloud over the borrowing environment next year. We look at the factors that make this turn in the credit cycle unique, and the likely path for corporate and sovereign defaults. We also examine why social challenges are a risk we are watching especially closely, and where there could be potential for positive economic surprises that would help stabilize credit conditions.Guests: Elena Duggar and Colin Ellis, Managing Directors for Credit Strategy at Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Long-time emerging markets investor Mark Mobius speaks with Atsi Sheth of Moody’s about the risks and opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment, effects of the strong dollar, and the outlook for cryptocurrencies as an asset class. This interview took place on the sidelines of Moody’s recent South Africa Risk Summit in Johannesburg, and also touches on Dr. Mobius’s views on investing in Africa and how he thinks increased digitalization of economies will play a large role in improving governance frameworks across the continent.Guests: Mark Mobius, Founder and Partner, Mobius Capital Partners LLP; Atsi Sheth, Managing Director –Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: William Foster, Vice President –Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture  page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

For banks in the US and Europe, this year’s sharp climb in interest rates has been positive for their performance, helping lift net interest income and net interest margins. But the higher rate environment could become unfavorable for banks as margin improvement begins to taper off and higher credit costs take hold. How are banks preparing? What do prior monetary policy cycles tell us about the correlation between higher interest rates and margin performance? And what happens if borrowers can no longer afford their higher debt-service obligations, especially if the economy weakens further?Guests: Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy & Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Allen Tischler, Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Early lights out at the Eiffel Tower. Lowered thermostats. Cold showers. Europe is bracing for a tough winter as it tries to scale back energy consumption to counter cuts in Russian gas flow and surging fuel prices. How are energy-intensive companies altering production to cope with the market disruption? What are the knock-on effects for other industries? And what policy paths are governments pursuing to soften the impact on households, and what are the risks?Guests: Petter Bryman, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Matthias Hellstern, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

More than two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many US office workers still are not back at their desks, as many have embraced work-from-home and other flexible work arrangements. How are commercial property owners, lenders and local governments adapting, and what does this mean for creditworthiness? What will it take to draw more workers back to the office? And how do the evolving workplace trends in the US compare with those in other parts of the world?Guests: Ranjini Venkatesan, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Nicholas Samuels, Senior Vice President – US Public Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Victor Calanog, Senior Director – Head of CRE Economics, Moody’s Analytics.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Growth of the G-20 economies will slow markedly this year after a strong rebound from the COVID-19 crisis in 2021, as high inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and central bank monetary policy has become more hawkish. How are the uncertain macro dynamics affecting the financing environment for corporate borrowers, and how vulnerable are lower-rated companies to a worsening economy? Is there a risk that central banks will overdo it and that higher interest rates become a catalyst for a recession? And why will the next few months be particularly critical in determining the path of the global economy?Guests: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President – Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service; Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President/Senior Credit Officer – Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Cybersecurity risk is evolving in novel ways, with increasing potential to cause significant economic disruption and financial losses for attack victims as hackers become more sophisticated. Which sectors are most vulnerable? What types of entities have the best and worst cyber defenses? And how are organizations managing cyber risks?  Guests: Jim Hempstead, Managing Director – Utilities, Moody’s Investors Service; Sarah Hibler, Associate Managing Director – Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed energy security to the top of the policy agenda in Europe, raising questions about whether the desire to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas will come at the expense of efforts to decarbonize the region’s economy. What are the options for European countries as they try to become more energy independent, and which countries are best placed to do so? And while there is no easy way to fill the energy gap in the short term, could the Russia-Ukraine crisis have the long-term effect of accelerating Europe’s pivot toward greater adoption of clean energy? Guests: Rahul Ghosh, Managing Director – ESG, Moody’s Investors Service, and Douglas Segars, Managing Director – Infrastructure Finance, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Soaring food and energy prices, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are stoking inflation and reducing households’ purchasing power in many countries. How are governments and companies trying to address affordability concerns, particularly for the poorest members of society? What will be the impact on consumption and economic growth? And what role might diminished living standards play in fomenting social and political risks?Guests: Matt Robinson, Associate Managing Director – Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign, Moody’s Investors Service, and Joanna Fic, Senior Vice President – Public Project and Infrastructure Finance, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President-Senior Credit Officer – Sub-Sovereign, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is fomenting new risks for the global economy and broader international relations. On this episode, a panel of Moody’s Investors Service analysts provide perspective on the spillover effects of the military conflict, from higher oil and food prices, to the growing number of refugees, and rising cybersecurity threats against critical infrastructure and other targets. Guests: Elena Nadtotchi, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Leroy Terrelonge, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Cyber Risk Group, and Evan Wohlmann, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors ServiceTo read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).