Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Home prices are falling in the US and Europe after a surge during COVID-19, as interest rates rise at a rapid clip and economic growth slows. On this episode, we discuss what’s different about this housing market downturn, particularly the big changes in mortgage lending since the global financial crisis, and why the credit performance of outstanding European mortgages will likely be much more uneven in the current higher interest rate environment compared with mortgages in the US. We also discuss why many US consumers will still struggle with home affordability even as home prices come down.Guests: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President – Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service; Luisa De Gaetano Polverosi, Associate Managing Director – Structured Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

ESG issues will come into sharp relief this year as corporate debt issuers grapple with growing scrutiny over their decarbonization plans, social risks intensify and the rules of the road for ESG investments evolve – all in an environment of heightened macroeconomic, financial and geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss the highlights of our recently published ESG Outlook and what are the key ESG trends that will shape credit quality in 2023.Guests: Rahul Ghosh, Managing Director – Sustainable Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Rebecca Karnovitz, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Environmental, Social and Governance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We discuss how recent geopolitical realignments and the splintering of international trade and financial flows will have credit effects for many sovereigns, and how deepening regionalization, not globalization, may be the trend of the future.Guests: Anne Van Praagh, Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors Service; and Shannon K. O’Neil, Vice President, Deputy Director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On this episode, we assess the major policy announcements from the COP27 climate summit and what they mean for the sovereign and corporate credit environment and for climate risk modeling. We discuss the “loss and damage” agreement on providing aid to poorer countries that have suffered some of the worst effects of climate change, innovations in climate finance, and what new technologies will be needed to bring about carbon transition of hard-to-abate business sectors.Guests: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Swami Venkataraman, Associate Managing Director – Environmental, Social and Governance, Moody’s Investors Service; and Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Risk Officer, RMS, Moody’s Corp.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this special episode to coincide with the publication of Moody’s 2023 Global Credit Conditions Outlook, we discuss how persistent inflation, rising interest rates and slowing growth will cast a cloud over the borrowing environment next year. We look at the factors that make this turn in the credit cycle unique, and the likely path for corporate and sovereign defaults. We also examine why social challenges are a risk we are watching especially closely, and where there could be potential for positive economic surprises that would help stabilize credit conditions.Guests: Elena Duggar and Colin Ellis, Managing Directors for Credit Strategy at Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Long-time emerging markets investor Mark Mobius speaks with Atsi Sheth of Moody’s about the risks and opportunities in the current macroeconomic environment, effects of the strong dollar, and the outlook for cryptocurrencies as an asset class. This interview took place on the sidelines of Moody’s recent South Africa Risk Summit in Johannesburg, and also touches on Dr. Mobius’s views on investing in Africa and how he thinks increased digitalization of economies will play a large role in improving governance frameworks across the continent.Guests: Mark Mobius, Founder and Partner, Mobius Capital Partners LLP; Atsi Sheth, Managing Director –Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: William Foster, Vice President –Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture  page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

For banks in the US and Europe, this year’s sharp climb in interest rates has been positive for their performance, helping lift net interest income and net interest margins. But the higher rate environment could become unfavorable for banks as margin improvement begins to taper off and higher credit costs take hold. How are banks preparing? What do prior monetary policy cycles tell us about the correlation between higher interest rates and margin performance? And what happens if borrowers can no longer afford their higher debt-service obligations, especially if the economy weakens further?Guests: Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Senior Vice President, Credit Strategy & Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Allen Tischler, Senior Vice President, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Early lights out at the Eiffel Tower. Lowered thermostats. Cold showers. Europe is bracing for a tough winter as it tries to scale back energy consumption to counter cuts in Russian gas flow and surging fuel prices. How are energy-intensive companies altering production to cope with the market disruption? What are the knock-on effects for other industries? And what policy paths are governments pursuing to soften the impact on households, and what are the risks?Guests: Petter Bryman, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Matthias Hellstern, Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

More than two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many US office workers still are not back at their desks, as many have embraced work-from-home and other flexible work arrangements. How are commercial property owners, lenders and local governments adapting, and what does this mean for creditworthiness? What will it take to draw more workers back to the office? And how do the evolving workplace trends in the US compare with those in other parts of the world?Guests: Ranjini Venkatesan, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Nicholas Samuels, Senior Vice President – US Public Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Victor Calanog, Senior Director – Head of CRE Economics, Moody’s Analytics.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Growth of the G-20 economies will slow markedly this year after a strong rebound from the COVID-19 crisis in 2021, as high inflation erodes consumer purchasing power and central bank monetary policy has become more hawkish. How are the uncertain macro dynamics affecting the financing environment for corporate borrowers, and how vulnerable are lower-rated companies to a worsening economy? Is there a risk that central banks will overdo it and that higher interest rates become a catalyst for a recession? And why will the next few months be particularly critical in determining the path of the global economy?Guests: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President – Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service; Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President/Senior Credit Officer – Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.