Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

On this episode of the Big Picture podcast, our analysts explore the situation in labor markets and its broader implications for the global economy and corporate credit quality.Guests: Yasmina Serghini, Managing Director within the Corporate Finance Group at Moody’s Investors Service, and Gabriel Agostini, Assistant Vice President within the Credit Strategy and Research Group at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Office within the Sub-Sovereign Group at Moody’s Investors Service

As higher borrowing costs and structural shifts compound cyclical trends in commercial real estate, our analysts explain where the risks lie and how they could affect lenders and the broader economy. Guests: Ana Arsov, MD- Financial Institutions at Moody’s Investors Service, Keith Banhazl, MD-Structured Finance at Moody’s Investors Service and Matthias Hellstern, MD-Corporate Finance at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: William Foster, Senior Vice President within the Sovereign Risk team at Moody’s Investors Service

Policy rates may be approaching their peaks, but central bankers are unlikely to change course anytime soon. In this episode of The Big Picture podcast, we discuss what this means for credit risk.Guests: Atsi Sheth, MD-Global Strategy & Research at Moody’s Investors Service, and Jorge Rodriguez-Valez, Senior Vice President within Global Strategy & Research at Moody’s Investors ServiceHost: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President within the Sovereign Risk team at Moody’s Investors Service

The underutilization of women in the workforce has a huge cost in terms of lost productivity and economic output around the world. What progress has been made and what will it take for women to achieve parity in labor force participation, pay and management roles?Guests: Dawn Holland, Director of Economic Research, Moody’s Analytics, and Raphaele Auberty, Analyst – Sub-sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

The chief economist of Moody’s Analytics joins host William Foster to discuss the consequences of debt limit brinkmanship for the US sovereign, the economy and global financial markets.   Guest: Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

One year after Russia invaded Ukraine, European economies are confronting a plethora of challenges and a transformed geopolitical landscape. We discuss the trade-offs for Europe as it seeks long-term replacements for Russian gas supplies while keeping decarbonization plans on track, the prospects for certain countries in stabilizing their government debt levels, and how European policymakers are responding to the US Inflation Reduction Act. Guests: Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Director, Bruegel.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Home prices are falling in the US and Europe after a surge during COVID-19, as interest rates rise at a rapid clip and economic growth slows. On this episode, we discuss what’s different about this housing market downturn, particularly the big changes in mortgage lending since the global financial crisis, and why the credit performance of outstanding European mortgages will likely be much more uneven in the current higher interest rate environment compared with mortgages in the US. We also discuss why many US consumers will still struggle with home affordability even as home prices come down.Guests: Madhavi Bokil, Senior Vice President – Credit Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service; Luisa De Gaetano Polverosi, Associate Managing Director – Structured Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

ESG issues will come into sharp relief this year as corporate debt issuers grapple with growing scrutiny over their decarbonization plans, social risks intensify and the rules of the road for ESG investments evolve – all in an environment of heightened macroeconomic, financial and geopolitical risks. In this episode, we discuss the highlights of our recently published ESG Outlook and what are the key ESG trends that will shape credit quality in 2023.Guests: Rahul Ghosh, Managing Director – Sustainable Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Rebecca Karnovitz, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Environmental, Social and Governance Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

We discuss how recent geopolitical realignments and the splintering of international trade and financial flows will have credit effects for many sovereigns, and how deepening regionalization, not globalization, may be the trend of the future.Guests: Anne Van Praagh, Managing Director, Global Sovereign Risk, Moody’s Investors Service; and Shannon K. O’Neil, Vice President, Deputy Director of Studies, and Nelson and David Rockefeller Senior Fellow for Latin America Studies, Council on Foreign Relations.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

On this episode, we assess the major policy announcements from the COP27 climate summit and what they mean for the sovereign and corporate credit environment and for climate risk modeling. We discuss the “loss and damage” agreement on providing aid to poorer countries that have suffered some of the worst effects of climate change, innovations in climate finance, and what new technologies will be needed to bring about carbon transition of hard-to-abate business sectors.Guests: Marie Diron, Managing Director – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service; Swami Venkataraman, Associate Managing Director – Environmental, Social and Governance, Moody’s Investors Service; and Robert Muir-Wood, Chief Risk Officer, RMS, Moody’s Corp.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).