Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Soaring commodities prices in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine are raising new questions about where inflation is headed, and whether supply chain stresses will be further exacerbated. We examine the root causes of current inflationary trends and how central banks will try to tame it. We also discuss whether moderate levels of inflation could be positive for the economy and the financial sector. Guests: Atsi Sheth, Managing Director, Global Strategy & Research, Moody’s Investors Service; Nick Hill, Managing Director, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

China was one of the few large economies to record growth during the pandemic crisis in 2020, but momentum has weakened in recent months. The loss of economic momentum comes as China has imposed strict COVID-19 lockdowns in some regions and its property sector is in the doldrums. What’s behind the recent slowdown and how is the world’s second-largest economy addressing its growth challenges? What is the effect on other economies? And how will the government’s pledges on multiple policy fronts – from reducing leverage to narrowing income inequality and accelerating the shift toward clean energy – reshape China’s economy over the long term?Guests: Gene Fang, Associate Managing Director – Sovereign and Sub-Sovereign, Moody’s Investors Service, and Michael Taylor, Managing Director – Credit Strategy, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Central banks around the world are studying and in some cases moving ahead with the creation of digital currencies that have the same value as physical cash. How do central bank-backed digital currencies work and how do they differ from other types of electronic financial assets such as cryptocurrencies and stablecoins? Could central bank digital currencies improve access to the financial systemand strengthen financial stability? And what kind of disruption will they bring for banks and other segments of the financial system? Guests: Colin Ellis, Managing Director – Credit Strategy, Moody’s Investors Service; Farooq Khan, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service. To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

The pandemic crisis has revealed how disparities in income, healthcare access and educational opportunity can amplify the damage of an economic shock. As policymakers globally look to address these issues through initiatives such as the Next Generation EU Fund, the proposed Build Back Better plan in the US and China’s Common Prosperity agenda, a key question is whether policies aimed at bridging wealth gaps can mitigate the negative economic consequences of widening inequality. Also, is the squeeze of the middle class in some countries spurring greater demands for change, and could it fuel social unrest? And could rising inflation exacerbate the problem? Guests: Susan Fitzgerald, Associate Managing Director – US Public Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Gabriel Torres, Vice President/Senior Credit Officer – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service. Host: Sarah Carlson, Senior Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Reaching net-zero carbon emissions targets will rely to a large extent on replacing fossil fuels with new innovations in areas such as hydrogen power, electric vehicle batteries, biofuels, and carbon capture and storage. Increased development of enabling technologies such as battery charging infrastructure will also play a big role. But do these technologies offer a realistic path toward helping countries meet their emissions targets? How quickly can they be scaled? And how will clean energy technology transform industries from airlines to utilities to automobiles in the coming decades?Guests: Jennifer Chang, Vice President – Senior Analyst, Public Project ＆ Infrastructure Finance, Moody’s Investors Service; Jonathan Root, Senior Vice President – Corporate Finance Group, Moody’s Investors Service; and Swami Venkataraman, Senior Vice President – Environmental, Social and Governance, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: Jennifer Wong, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Sub-Sovereign Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

Government indebtedness has surged as countries have battled COVID-19 and its economic fallout, following a decade of increased borrowing. Total debt across governments around the world soared to $83 trillion in 2020, up from $50 trillion in 2010. And this year, government debt is likely to exceed nonfinancial company debt for the first time in decades. What are the consequences of this borrowing binge for the broader economy? What happens when interest rates start to rise? And why is there such divergence between advanced and emerging market countries in how they are positioned to manage the situation?Guests: Richard Cantor, Chief Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; and Marie Diron, Managing Director ­– Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.Host: William Foster, Vice President – Sovereign Risk Group, Moody’s Investors Service.To read more on this topic, visit The Big Picture page on Moodys.com (some content only available to registered users or subscribers).

In our inaugural episode of The Big Picture podcast series, Michael Rowan of the Global Public Project and Infrastructure Finance team, Anne Van Praagh of the Sovereign team and Simon Harris of the Financial Institutions team share their perspectives on the increasing frequency of devastating climate events and how they affect debt issuers around the globe.Read research related to this episode on The Big Picture topic page. 

Insights from Moody's analysts on hot topics across fixed-income markets, including COVID-19 impact, technological disruption, political shifts, and climate change. Aim to update listeners on emerging trends in the global credit landscape.