Behind the Markets Podcast

Show from 10/18/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel discuss the latest market trends, starting with strong retail sales, the bond yield increases, and a solid third-quarter GDP outlook. Siegel highlights positive productivity growth and deposit expansion, suggesting that the neutral interest rate might be higher than expected. He also comments on upcoming midterm elections and their potential market impact. (10:00) Jeremy then turns to guest Phil Huber, Head of Portfolio Solutions at Cliffwater, who shares insights on the growing role of alternative investments. They delve into private markets, private debt, and the increasing interest in alternatives for portfolios, emphasizing the importance of diversification, liquidity management, and manager selection in these areas. Guest: As both a wealth management practitioner and an investment-industry thought leader, Phil Huber, CFA, CFP®, is uniquely qualified in helping investors design, implement, and stick with evidence-based portfolios built to fulfill long-term financial goals and objectives. Phil is the Head of Portfolio Solutions for Cliffwater, a leading alternative investment adviser and fund manager. Prior to joining Cliffwater in 2024, Phil was the Chief Investment Officer for Savant Wealth Management, a multi-billion dollar wealth management firm. Phil has been involved in the financial services industry since 2007. He earned a bachelor’s degree in finance from the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University. He is a member of the CFA Society of Chicago. He is the author of The Allocator’s Edge: A Modern Guide to Alternative Investments and the Future of Diversification. Phil has been featured by a number of media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, InvestmentNews, CityWire RIA Magazine, and Bloomberg TV. Follow Phil on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-huber More Insights from Cliffwater: https://www.cliffwater.com/Insights Direct Lending for the Long Run: https://www.cliffwater.com/ResourceArticle?docId=23740 Cliffwater Direct Lending Index: https://www.cliffwaterdirectlendingindex.com/

Show from 10/11/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest inflation data, particularly focusing on the CPI, PPI, and jobless claims. Professor Siegel expresses mixed reactions, noting improvements in the PPI but concerns about other inflation indicators like car insurance and housing costs. He also mentions the market's resilience and optimism despite weaker data, particularly regarding inflation and jobless claims, and forecasts potential future Fed rate cuts. (9:00) Jeremy is then joined by Anna Rathbun, Chief Investment Officer at CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, who discusses the firm’s broad services and her perspective on economic data, including small business employment and inflation volatility. Rathbun emphasizes the uncertainty of the economic trajectory, explains the firm’s approach to portfolio construction, and shares insights into global markets, highlighting opportunities in India and Japan while cautioning against China. She also offers thoughts on U.S. geopolitical resilience and the potential for recession-driven tax policy shifts. Guest: Anna is the chief investment officer for CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, LLC (CBIZ IAS), a Registered Investment Advisory firm. Anna is responsible for overseeing the investment activities of CBIZ IAS through the CBIZ national Investment Committee. She helps to set the direction of the firm as a member of the Executive Committee. Learn more about Anna at: https://www.cbiz.com/about-us/employee-directory/employee-details/anna-j-rathbun Follow Anna on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/anna-rathbun-cfa-caia-aa561689

Show from 10/04/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel open this week’s episode discussing the strong market report, noting gains in productivity despite a decline in hours worked, and the potential for a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed. Professor Siegel highlights the recalibration of long-term interest rates, predicting they may settle around 4-4.5%, and emphasizes the lowered risk of recession. (12:00) Jeremy is then joined by Yashwant Bajaj, founder and CIO of Four Ships Asset Management, for a special tribute to Ken Taheny, who tragically passed away. The conversation covers the outlook for Japan, its managed yen depreciation, and its geopolitical positioning in the global supply chain, particularly in semiconductors and other strategic sectors. Yashwant also shares insights into Japan's potential industrial revitalization and the challenges and opportunities facing the country. Learn more about Yashwant at: https://www.four-ships.com/ Follow Yashwant on LinkedIn: https://sg.linkedin.com/in/yashwant-bajaj-68433053

Show from 09/27/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Jeremy Siegel discuss the latest market data, focusing on US economic indicators and the impact of monetary policy. Professor Siegel highlights the increase in M2 money supply, home price trends, and the PCE deflator, suggesting the Fed may continue to lower rates. He shares his outlook on the 10-year treasury yield, China's economic stimulus, and Japanese equities before signing off. (10:00) Jeremy continues with guest Tom Morgan, who shares insights from his experience on Wall Street, his interest in human behavior, and his transition to a more holistic approach to decision-making. Tom discusses the impact of left versus right brain dominance on investing and personal life, emphasizing the importance of balance and intuition. He also talks about his network, the Leading Edge, where he helps people explore new identities and enhance their intuitive decision-making. Guest: Tom Morgan is a former financier and founder of The Leading Edge, a media platform and transformational community dedicated to sharing world-changing ideas and facilitating life-changing experiences. Learn more about Tom at: https://www.theleading-edge.org/ Follow Tom on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-morgan-3a619372

In a riveting discussion, Professor Jeremy Siegel shares his insights into the Federal Reserve's unexpected decision to hold rates amid robust economic data, revealing his predictions for gradual rate cuts ahead. Alejandro Lopez-Lira, an Assistant Professor at the University of Florida, dives into the transformative role of AI in stock prediction, discussing his new book and the implications of large language models like ChatGPT in enhancing traditional financial strategies. Together, they explore the evolving intersection of technology and finance.

Show from 09/13/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss this week’s market movements, highlighting the implications of recent inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Professor Siegel emphasizes his expectation for a series of gradual rate cuts over the coming months, expressing concerns about the Fed’s pace of adjustments. (15:00) Jeremy continues the conversation with Wharton Professor Chris Geczy, who shares his insights on inflation, market dynamics, and his experiences with the intersection of AI and investment management. They delve into the implications of fiscal policy, the evolving role of AI in finance, and the importance of diversified investment strategies in today’s market environment. Guest: Chris Geczy has been on the Finance Department faculty at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania since 1997. He is Academic Director of the Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research. He is also Academic Director of the Wharton Wealth Management Initiative at Wharton Executive Education. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and a Ph.D. in finance and econometrics from the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago (now the Booth School). Learn more about Chris at: https://fnce.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/geczy/ Follow Chris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-geczy-ph-d-a69114

Peter Boockvar, CIO at Bleakley Advisory Group, shares his insights on the economic landscape shaped by prolonged high interest rates. He discusses the weakened market leadership and the crucial role of commodities in diversified portfolios. Boockvar also delves into gold's price trajectory and the competition between Bitcoin and gold as investment choices. He emphasizes the need for rethinking asset allocation strategies in the current volatile environment, highlighting opportunities in emerging markets, especially in Asia.

Show from 08/30/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss the latest market data, including recent jobless claims, the inflation outlook, and upcoming Fed decisions. Professor Siegel emphasizes the need for the Fed to lower rates to avoid unnecessary recession risks and comments on the stable but unimpressive economic performance. (09:08) Jeremy continues the discussion with guests Richard Oller and Jake Hollinger, who share insights on the real estate market, including rental trends stabilizing post-pandemic, the impact of interest rates on property valuations, and the challenges of negative leverage. They also explore the broader supply-demand dynamics in housing, potential policy solutions for affordability, and the evolving cultural shift towards renting over homeownership. Guests: Richard, a lawyer by training, in 1985 founded the Wentworth Group (now First Service Residential) which over the next 15 years grew into one of the largest residential real estate management firms in the United States. In 2004 Richard aligned with his current partner, Jeffrey Goldstein, sharing the helm at Multifamily Management Services and Affiliates (MMS) and GoldOller. As a founding member of GoldOller Real Estate Investments, LLC, Jakes serves as President and Chief Operating Officer. In this role, Jake directs new investments for the Goldoller portfolio and oversees management operations for all investments. Jake has over 15 years of experience working with real estate investments in acquisitions, development, finance, and management. Learn more about Richard at: https://goldoller.com/the-go-team/ Learn more about Jake at: https://goldoller.com/the-go-team/ Follow Jake on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/bill-miller-cfa-a421075

Show from 08/23/24 Host Jeremy Schwartz and Professor Siegel discuss Powell’s recent speech at Jackson Hole, noting its dovish tone and implications for future Fed rate cuts. Professor Siegel emphasizes the ongoing strength in economic data, such as jobless claims and new home sales, while expressing concern over the timing and scale of rate cuts. He predicts that value stocks, small caps, and dividend payers will benefit as the Fed’s easing cycle continues. (12:21) Jeremy is joined by Bill Miller, who shares his insights on the economy and markets, including the strength of small-cap stocks. The two discuss opportunities for home builders and the impact of Fed policy on interest rates. Miller also discusses his firm’s value-oriented investment strategy, including positions in companies like Stellantis and PayPal, and his bullish stance on Bitcoin as a long-term investment. Guest: Bill Miller IV, CFA, CMT has managed the firm’s Income Strategy since April, 2009. Prior to working exclusively with Miller Value Partners, Bill worked at Legg Mason Capital Management since 2008 covering the specialty finance and consumer spaces with a focus on high-yielding securities. Bill earned his MBA from the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth after working as an analyst at the management consulting firm McKinsey & Company. He graduated Phi Beta Kappa and magna cum laude from Tufts University with a degree in economics. Bill earned his CFA designation in 2011 and his CMT designation in 2018. Learn more about Bill at: https://millervalue.com/ Follow Bill on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/bill-miller-cfa-a421075

In this lively outdoor chat, Jim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research, and Jack Farley from Blockworks illuminate financial markets while fishing in Maine. They dissect the implications of high inflation, explore a potential 'no landing' scenario for the economy, and analyze the transformative role of ETFs in the bond market. The duo also shares insights on how the Federal Reserve's moves on interest rates could affect future economic trends and discusses the intersection of finance with the current political climate.