Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Happy New Year and welcome to the very first Facts vs Feelings episode of 2024!In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze market trends and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the recent market rally, the role of inflation and the Federal Reserve, and the potential for continued growth, especially in small and mid-cap stocks. They explore economic cycle indicators, the impact of inflation and rate cuts, and the unpredictability of market returns. Forecasts for the S&P 500 are debated, with a focus on the likelihood of higher gains despite the challenges of accurate predictions.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Market trends and potential outlook for 2024Factors contributing to the recent market rallyPerformance of small and mid-cap stocksThe significance of small-cap industriesEarly versus late economic cycle indicatorsImpact of inflation and rate cuts on market performanceForecasts for the S&P 500 for 2024Likelihood of positive returns in the marketThe importance of understanding odds and adjusting investment strategiesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With 2024 just around the corner, there are big uncertainties for the U.S. economy regarding inflation, interest rates, political uncertainty, and a possible recession.How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment? What are the sectors to look at? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, to explore the 2024 economic outlook of Ned Davis Research. They discuss the effects of the political uncertainty, what sectors to watch in 2024, the possibility of a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks and the implications of higher short-term interest rates. Additionally, they touch on the labor market, the Fed, and the possibility of a recession.Together they discuss: Ed’s over 20 years at NDR, emphasizing the collaborative and data-driven approachWhether the Fed can successfully achieve a soft landing for the economy and the potential turbulence aheadThe chance of a recession and the factors contributing to this riskThe political implications for the Fed's decision-making processThe importance of considering both soft data and hard data in analyzing the economy and the mixed signals they provideThe historical market performance during presidential election yearsThe potential rotation towards small and mid-cap stocksJerome Powell's performance as the Fed ChairThe favored sectors and the underweighted sectors for the upcoming yearAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ed Clissold: Twitter: @edclissoldLinkedIn: Ed ClissoldNed Davis Research Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector, and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles. Ed has held a number of other positions since joining the firm in 2002, including Global Equity Strategist, Senior Global Analyst in the Global Asset Allocation group, and Analyst in the Custom Research Services department. Previously, Ed worked at Strong Capital Management and as a Market Strategist at J.C. Bradford & Co. 

The U.S. economy has been showing signs of strength, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and ever-evolving global uncertainties. One of the most encouraging indicators is the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in November.What does this mean for the markets? What is the outlook for 2024?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the current state of the economy and job market, inflation, and market performance. They address the good news of the unemployment drop, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, and the positive outlook for investors in 2024.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The positive trends in the job market, highlighting the recent good news in employment numbersThe significance of the JOLTS report, highlighting Jerome Powell's concern over openings per unemployed workerThe recent decrease in used car prices and its potential impact on inflationThe current state of inflation and the Fed's decision to keep rates high, with speculation on potential rate cuts in the futureWhy small caps and mid-caps have been outperformingThe positive stock market indicatorsAn anticipation for the Fed meeting and the discussion on potential rate cuts for 2024, as well as the upcoming CPI reportAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Recessions are periods of economic contraction that typically last for several months or longer. With all the news about a possible recession for 2024, will we actually experience one?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore some of the indicators and factors that suggest that the current economic situation is not indicative of a recession, and that the stock market is still optimistic about the future. They also pay tribute to Charlie Munger, one of the most influential and respected investors of our time, and share some of his wisdom and insights on investing and life.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The strong performance of stocks in November and the resilience of the 60/40 portfolioAn analysis of the S&P 500 performance after gaining 8.9% in a monthQuotes and insights from Charlie Munger, emphasizing his ability to connect with people through stories and his advice on investingThe Dow and S&P 500 are at or near all-time highs, indicating that the market is looking forward and suggesting that a recession is not currently expectedThe strong performance and growth in manufacturing and construction sectorsAn Analysis of the robustness of balance sheets in corporate America and householdsThe sustained strength of consumer spending, with references to net wealth, stock ownership, and consumption trendsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors. Based on the increases we've seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group chat about the year-end rally in the stock market, exploring factors such as seasonal trends, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and positive market sentiment. Additionally, they touch on record-breaking Black Friday sales, potential interest rate cuts, and the impact on the housing market.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The year-end rally in the stock market and the shift in sentiment from bearish to bullishThe S&P's four-week win streak and the significance of persistent buying in the marketThe broadening participation of sectors and stocks in the market rallyBlack Friday sales and statisticsConsumer debt and net worth, highlighting how households are in better financial shape now compared to pre-COVID timesWhy the increase in mortgage rates did not have a significant impact on the consumer and the housing marketA speculation on the potential for inflation to decrease and rate cuts to occur in 2024And more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist and leading expert on macroeconomic policy, joins Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese to discuss the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from her time at the Federal Reserve. They explore topics such as the mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, the importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index, and the potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investments.

With the recent inflation data, can we say that the Fed has stopped raising rates? How will this affect the economy if this is to happen? What’s next for the stock market for the remainder of the year?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the stock market. They explore the recent inflation data and its implications for the Fed. Additionally, they touch on the potential catalysts for a year-end market rally and the current state of credit spreads in the market.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The inflation data and how it confirms the belief that the Fed is done with rate hikesThe positive impact of lower inflation on small cap stocksWhy small caps and midcaps are performing well due to expectations of lower interest ratesA potential year-end rallyHow rising interest rates negatively affected stocksThe potential positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage rates and housing activityOptimism about opportunities in the marketAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

In this podcast, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese discuss the recent market rally and potential year-end rally, the actions of the Federal Reserve and their impact on the economy, the disconnect between the labor market and inflation, the growth in the labor force and low number of layoffs, and the anticipation for the future in the markets.

October 2023 proved to be a challenging month for the stock market. Various factors, such as geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, earnings disappointments, and the Federal Reserve's policy, caused the market to suffer a decline in sentiment and confidence. What are the projections for the market's performance for the remainder of the year? In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese talk about the recent market correction and its potential as a healthy adjustment. They explore how geopolitical risks may have influenced the market and remain optimistic about a year-end rally. Additionally, they speculate on the Federal Reserve's actions. Ryan and Sonu discuss:  The recent stock market correction, its causes, and the potential for a rebound Previous bear markets and their impact on market returns The resilience of the economy despite challenges like the pandemic McDonald's positive earnings despite price increases, indicating consumer demand and potential economic signals The US economy's growth post-pandemic with other countries The better-than-expected Q3 GDP growth The increase in government spending and defense spending Three lesser-known positive indicators in the economy The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and the likelihood of a rate hike And more! Resources: Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47) Talking Investing Lessons with Cliff Asness (Ep. 55) Talking About the Bond Bear Market with Daniel Ivascyn (Ep. 57) Connect with Ryan Detrick:  LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu Varghese:  LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese 

The global economy is facing unprecedented challenges and uncertainties, which has disrupted supply chains, boosted inflation, and strained fiscal and monetary policies.How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment, and what are the implications for the bond market? Today, we chat about this and more with a very special guest!In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese speak with Daniel Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO. They explore the current state of the economy, rising yields, and the future path of inflation. Dan also shares details about the role of PIMCO's advisory board and the value of bonds as diversifiers for stocks. Additionally, he talks about his experiences in the industry, his mentors, and his early experiences.They discuss: The main drivers behind the increase in yieldsWhy the economy has remained strong despite the aggressive actions of the Federal ReserveThe factors influencing nominal bond yieldsThe experience of taking over a large companyThe value in fixed income markets for long-term investorsThe role of bonds as a diversifier for stocksConcerns about companies with lower credit ratings facing challenges in borrowing and rolling over debtHis early struggles in trading markets and the mentorship he receivedWhy US treasuries are still considered a safe asset and how they can benefit from flight to quality flows during times of crisisAnd more!Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Daniel Ivascyn is the Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO,and a managing director in the Newport Beach office [which office/company? Are we still talking PIMCO?]. He is lead portfolio manager for the firm’s income, credit hedge fund, and mortgage opportunistic strategies, and is also a portfolio manager for total return strategies. He is a member of PIMCO's Executive Committee and a member of the Investment Committee. Morningstar named him Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year (U.S.) for 2013, and he was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame in 2019. Prior to joining PIMCO in 1998, he worked at Bear Stearns in the asset-backed securities group, as well as T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Investments. He has 33 years of investment experience and holds an MBA in analytic finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in economics from Occidental College.