Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist and leading expert on macroeconomic policy, joins Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese to discuss the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from her time at the Federal Reserve. They explore topics such as the mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, the importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index, and the potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investments.

With the recent inflation data, can we say that the Fed has stopped raising rates? How will this affect the economy if this is to happen? What’s next for the stock market for the remainder of the year?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the stock market. They explore the recent inflation data and its implications for the Fed. Additionally, they touch on the potential catalysts for a year-end market rally and the current state of credit spreads in the market.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The inflation data and how it confirms the belief that the Fed is done with rate hikesThe positive impact of lower inflation on small cap stocksWhy small caps and midcaps are performing well due to expectations of lower interest ratesA potential year-end rallyHow rising interest rates negatively affected stocksThe potential positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage rates and housing activityOptimism about opportunities in the marketAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

In this podcast, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese discuss the recent market rally and potential year-end rally, the actions of the Federal Reserve and their impact on the economy, the disconnect between the labor market and inflation, the growth in the labor force and low number of layoffs, and the anticipation for the future in the markets.

October 2023 proved to be a challenging month for the stock market. Various factors, such as geopolitical tensions, inflation fears, earnings disappointments, and the Federal Reserve's policy, caused the market to suffer a decline in sentiment and confidence. What are the projections for the market's performance for the remainder of the year? In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese talk about the recent market correction and its potential as a healthy adjustment. They explore how geopolitical risks may have influenced the market and remain optimistic about a year-end rally. Additionally, they speculate on the Federal Reserve's actions. Ryan and Sonu discuss:  The recent stock market correction, its causes, and the potential for a rebound Previous bear markets and their impact on market returns The resilience of the economy despite challenges like the pandemic McDonald's positive earnings despite price increases, indicating consumer demand and potential economic signals The US economy's growth post-pandemic with other countries The better-than-expected Q3 GDP growth The increase in government spending and defense spending Three lesser-known positive indicators in the economy The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and the likelihood of a rate hike And more! Resources: Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47) Talking Investing Lessons with Cliff Asness (Ep. 55) Talking About the Bond Bear Market with Daniel Ivascyn (Ep. 57) Connect with Ryan Detrick:  LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick Connect with Sonu Varghese:  LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese 

The global economy is facing unprecedented challenges and uncertainties, which has disrupted supply chains, boosted inflation, and strained fiscal and monetary policies.How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment, and what are the implications for the bond market? Today, we chat about this and more with a very special guest!In this episode, Carson's Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick & VP, Global Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese speak with Daniel Ivascyn, Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO. They explore the current state of the economy, rising yields, and the future path of inflation. Dan also shares details about the role of PIMCO's advisory board and the value of bonds as diversifiers for stocks. Additionally, he talks about his experiences in the industry, his mentors, and his early experiences.They discuss: The main drivers behind the increase in yieldsWhy the economy has remained strong despite the aggressive actions of the Federal ReserveThe factors influencing nominal bond yieldsThe experience of taking over a large companyThe value in fixed income markets for long-term investorsThe role of bonds as a diversifier for stocksConcerns about companies with lower credit ratings facing challenges in borrowing and rolling over debtHis early struggles in trading markets and the mentorship he receivedWhy US treasuries are still considered a safe asset and how they can benefit from flight to quality flows during times of crisisAnd more!Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Daniel Ivascyn is the Group Chief Investment Officer at PIMCO,and a managing director in the Newport Beach office [which office/company? Are we still talking PIMCO?]. He is lead portfolio manager for the firm’s income, credit hedge fund, and mortgage opportunistic strategies, and is also a portfolio manager for total return strategies. He is a member of PIMCO's Executive Committee and a member of the Investment Committee. Morningstar named him Fixed-Income Fund Manager of the Year (U.S.) for 2013, and he was inducted into the Fixed Income Analysts Society Hall of Fame in 2019. Prior to joining PIMCO in 1998, he worked at Bear Stearns in the asset-backed securities group, as well as T. Rowe Price and Fidelity Investments. He has 33 years of investment experience and holds an MBA in analytic finance from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and a bachelor's degree in economics from Occidental College.

The Middle East is home to some of the world’s oldest civilizations, religions, and cultures.At the same time, it is the scene of some of the most pressing geopolitical issues of our time. The recent escalation of violence between Israel and Hamas has raised concerns about the stability of the region and the prospects for peace, and the situation also presents opportunities and challenges for the global economy, particularly the oil markets. In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Matthew Gomoll, MBA, CEPA, CEP®️, Partner, Wealth Advisor at Carson Wealth. Matt shares his insights on the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine, including the potential implications for the region and the world. Ryan and Sonu also cover the impact of geopolitics on the stock market, inflation, and the economy, and the outlook for the stock market in the coming year.They discuss: Matt's background as a wealth advisor and former U.S. Army Special Forces officerThe geographical and historical context of Israel's position in the Middle East and the ongoing threat from Hezbollah and HamasThe impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict on the marketsHistorical examples of how stock markets have performed in the aftermath of major geopolitical eventsHow the US has become the largest producer of oil and its shift from being a net importer to a net exporterThe concept of excess savings and its impact on the economyThe performance of small caps and financials in the first year of a bull market and the potential outlook for 2024And more!Resources:Sign up now to the 2023 Excell Represent ConferenceConnect with Matthew Gomoll: LinkedIn: Matthew GomollConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Matthew Gomoll has seen firsthand what a difference financial planning can make – not just for your wealth but for your life.His passion is to truly help clients work towards their goals. Whether that is feeling comfortable to retire, preparing a business to sell, buying that vacation home you’ve always wanted, finally paying off that debt weighing you down, or caring for a loved one in old age, the measure of his success is when you do the things in life that are important to you.His background as a Special Forces Officer gave me years of experience listening, identifying root issues, and communicating in terms that can be easily understood. Matthew's service has also instilled the values of integrity, duty, loyalty, and quick thinking under fire – skills and values he draws on every day as an advisor.As a CERTIFIED EXIT PLANNING ADVISOR and CERTIFIED ESTATE PLANNER™, Matthew enjoys leading efforts on your behalf across a team of CPAs, attorneys, bankers, and other professionals to help you make the best decisions possible for your family or your business. He has specific experience in helping business owners grow the value of their business and position it for an eventual transition. Matthew also specializes in working with estate planning attorneys on all of the financial considerations for a family’s estate. 

Investing is a complex and uncertain activity that requires careful analysis, discipline, and patience. There are many factors that can influence the performance of different investment strategies, such as market conditions and investor preferences.Today, we speak with a leading figure in the field.In this special edition of the Facts Vs. Feelings podcast, recorded live at the Excell conference in Nashville, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese speak with Cliff Asness, Managing and Founding Principal at AQR Capital Management.Together, they chat about investment management, the importance of understanding uncertainty in the market, and the need to learn from past mistakes. They also touch on topics such as market bubbles, momentum strategies, and the parallels between decision-making in sports and investing.They discuss: The challenge of quantifying investment strategies and determining if they align with clients' expectationsA critical mistake made during the launch of his firm, AQRA definition of a bubble and examples of past bubbles in the marketCliff’s journey from considering law school to becoming a quantitative finance researcher, highlighting pivotal momentsThe challenges and misconceptions surrounding momentum investingCliff’s research on the optimal time to pull a hockey goalie and how it relates to investment strategiesThe parallels between sports and investingAnd more!Connect with Cliff Asness: LinkedIn: Cliff AsnessX: Cliff AsnessWebsite: AQR Capital ManagementConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest: Cliff Asness is a Founder, Managing Principal, and Chief Investment Officer at AQR Capital Management. He is an active researcher and has authored articles on a variety of financial topics for many publications, including The Journal of Portfolio Management, Financial Analysts Journal, The Journal of Finance, and The Journal of Financial Economics. He has received five Bernstein Fabozzi/Jacobs Levy Awards from The Journal of Portfolio Management in 2002, 2004, 2005, 2014, and 2015. Financial Analysts Journal has twice awarded him the Graham and Dodd Award for the year’s best paper, as well as a Graham and Dodd Excellence Award, the award for the best perspectives piece, and the Graham and Dodd Readers’ Choice Award. He has won the second prize of the Fama/DFA Prize for Capital Markets and Asset Pricing in the 2020 Journal of Financial Economics. In 2006, the CFA Institute presented Cliff with the James R. Vertin Award, which is periodically given to individuals who have produced a body of research notable for its relevance and enduring value to investment professionals. Prior to co-founding AQR Capital Management, he was a Managing Director and Director of Quantitative Research for the Asset Management Division of Goldman Sachs & Co. He is on the editorial board of The Journal of Portfolio Management, the governing board of the Courant Institute of Mathematical Finance at NYU, the board of directors of the Q-Group, the board of the International Rescue Committee and the board of trustees of The National WWII Museum. Cliff received a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.S. in engineering from the Moore School of Electrical Engineering at the University of Pennsylvania, graduating summa cum laude in

Fourth quarters are often crucial times for the economy and the markets as they capture the trends from previous quarters and set the tone for the next year. However, this year’s fourth quarter may be more uncertain and volatile than usual...What can investors do to prepare for the potential challenges and opportunities ahead?In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese share their expectations for the fourth quarter, including the potential impact of a government shutdown. They also explore the historical performance of the stock market in Q4 and the strength of the dollar.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The impact of a government shutdown on the economyAn analysis of the historical performance of the fourth quarterThe strength of the economy and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates more than anticipatedThe risk of an energy shock and how it can impact portfoliosAn analysis of the weakness of regional banks and its impact on small capsThe recent personal consumption expenditures report, core inflation trends, income growth, and consumption levelsThe surprising increase in net wealth among the bottom 50% of income earners over the last three and a half yearsAnd more!Resources:Facts Vs. Feelings (Ep. 53) - Talking About the Economy with Alejandra GrindalConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Dive deep into the pulse of the economy with top experts!In this special live edition episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese chat with Alejandra Grindal, Chief Economist at Ned Davis Research. Together, they dissect the influence of macroeconomics on investment choices, unravel the pandemic's effect on inflation, consumer confidence, and retail sales, and shed light on the profound influence of the global landscape, especially China, on the US.They discuss: The correlation between the stock market and the economyThe impact of the pandemic on inflation and whether it will be a long-term or temporary effectReasons behind the low productivity growth and its potential impact on long-term economic growthThe importance of business investment for productivityHow consumer indicators can be influenced by political polarizationThe importance of considering multiple indicators before making economic predictionsThe importance of the US economy and the impact of ChinaAnd more!Resources: Website: Ned David ResearchLinkedIn: Ned Davis ResearchX: Ned Davis ResearchYouTube: Ned Davis ResearchConnect with Alejandra Grindal: LinkedIn: Alejandra GrindalConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Alejandra Grindal is the Senior International Economist for Ned Davis Research Group. She is the primary person in charge of the firm’s global economic outlook and is responsible for identifying global economic trends and themes, particularly as they relate to developments in equity, fixed income, commodity, and currency markets. In recent years Alejandra has been particularly focused on global demographics and labor force trends, China’s economic transition, and Japan’s lost decade. She joined Ned Davis Research Group in 2006. Alejandra is a member of the National Association for Business Economics, where she is co-chair of the International Roundtable. She is a frequent speaker at professional and investment conferences and her work has been cited in the financial media. Prior to joining Ned Davis Research Group, Alejandra taught Microeconomics and Macroeconomics at Florida State University during her graduate studies and then worked as a full-time professor at Santa Fe College and Edison College. Alejandra also worked in the British Parliament as a research assistant, where she participated in policy and constituent research and campaign marketing.Alejandra received her Masters degree in Economics and a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics and International Affairs, with summa cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa distinction, from Florida State University.

Live from the Excell Conference in Nashville, this week we bring you incredible stories and valuable guests!In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese sit down with Paul Hickey, Co-Founder: Bespoke Investment Group and Bespoke Market Intel, Sam Ro, CFA, Founder of TKer.co, and Frank Cappelleri, Founder and President at CappThesis.  They cover various topics, including the current state of the economy, technical analysis, market trends, inflation, and the impact of higher energy prices on the economy. They also share their experiences running their own companies and the importance of adapting to market feedback. Together, they discuss:The message of the market from a technical point of view, focusing on bullish patterns and low volatilityThe weak consumer sentiment and its correlation with presidential approval ratings and inflationThe early days of their businesses, including not having basic supplies, going independent, and the importance of listening to the market The performance of small caps and the factors affecting their movementDetails about their companies and how they help investors and advisorsWhether the economy is in an early cycle or heading towards a recessionThe need to know your time frame when trading and the benefits of being market agnosticAnd more!Connect with Paul Hickey: LinkedIn: Paul HickeyBespoke Investment GroupConnect with Sam Ro: LinkedIn: Sam RoTKer by Sam RoConnect with Frank Cappelleri: LinkedIn: Frank CappelleriCappThesisConnect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese