Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

The world is facing unprecedented challenges and opportunities in 2024. From geopolitical tensions and trade wars to technological innovations and environmental issues.How can investors navigate these times? How will the emergence of cryptocurrencies and digital assets affect the financial system and regulation? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the economic outlook and global issues. They also dive into the implications of Bitcoin ETFs, volatility, and risk tolerance in cryptocurrency markets. Additionally, they touch on inflation and rates, referencing the CPI and PPI, the M2 concerns, and the male labor participation rate.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The geopolitical scene, focusing on the Red Sea issues and the impact on global shipping and oil pricesThe recent election in Taiwan and the potential impact on ChinaThe drama surrounding the Bitcoin ETF approvalAn analysis of inflation data, including CPI and PPI, and its impact on potential rate cuts by the FedThe significance of M2 being negative year over year and its potential impact on the economyThe male labor participation rate and its comparison to historical levelsThe beginning of earnings season, bank performance, and significant developments in the aviation and technology sectorsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With signals of growth faced against global uncertainties, what can we expect from the global economy in 2024?How will these factors affect the performance of various sectors and markets, and what strategies can investors adopt to navigate this year? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, share their 2024 outlook on the economy and stock market. They analyze the surprises from 2023 and explain why there is still no likelihood of a recession. Additionally, they explore potential Fed rate cuts and provide an outlook for bonds, housing, manufacturing, and fixed income strategies.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Surprises and trends from 2023, including economic growth and employment gainsThe main drivers to avoid a recessionThe current labor market, job creation, unemployment rate, and wage growthProductivity's impact on economic growth and the outlook for 2024The likelihood of future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and their potential impact on the economyThe outlook for stocks and bonds in 2024The influence of housing demand, supply, and interest rates, as well as the impact of fiscal policy on manufacturing and constructionThe market's historical performance in midterm and pre-election yearsThe strength in small and mid-cap stocksAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Happy New Year and welcome to the very first Facts vs Feelings episode of 2024!In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group analyze market trends and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the recent market rally, the role of inflation and the Federal Reserve, and the potential for continued growth, especially in small and mid-cap stocks. They explore economic cycle indicators, the impact of inflation and rate cuts, and the unpredictability of market returns. Forecasts for the S&P 500 are debated, with a focus on the likelihood of higher gains despite the challenges of accurate predictions.Ryan and Sonu discuss: Market trends and potential outlook for 2024Factors contributing to the recent market rallyPerformance of small and mid-cap stocksThe significance of small-cap industriesEarly versus late economic cycle indicatorsImpact of inflation and rate cuts on market performanceForecasts for the S&P 500 for 2024Likelihood of positive returns in the marketThe importance of understanding odds and adjusting investment strategiesAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

With 2024 just around the corner, there are big uncertainties for the U.S. economy regarding inflation, interest rates, political uncertainty, and a possible recession.How can investors navigate this complex and volatile environment? What are the sectors to look at? In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, chat with Ed Clissold, Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research, to explore the 2024 economic outlook of Ned Davis Research. They discuss the effects of the political uncertainty, what sectors to watch in 2024, the possibility of a shift towards small and mid-cap stocks and the implications of higher short-term interest rates. Additionally, they touch on the labor market, the Fed, and the possibility of a recession.Together they discuss: Ed’s over 20 years at NDR, emphasizing the collaborative and data-driven approachWhether the Fed can successfully achieve a soft landing for the economy and the potential turbulence aheadThe chance of a recession and the factors contributing to this riskThe political implications for the Fed's decision-making processThe importance of considering both soft data and hard data in analyzing the economy and the mixed signals they provideThe historical market performance during presidential election yearsThe potential rotation towards small and mid-cap stocksJerome Powell's performance as the Fed ChairThe favored sectors and the underweighted sectors for the upcoming yearAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ed Clissold: Twitter: @edclissoldLinkedIn: Ed ClissoldNed Davis Research Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu VargheseAbout our guest:Ed Clissold, CFA, is the Chief U.S. Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group. He and his team are responsible for the firm’s U.S. equity, style, sector, and equity theme analysis. They do so via a combination of a top-down analysis of the macroeconomic and fundamental environments and a bottom-up analysis of factors specific to the asset class, market cap, style, sector, or theme. He and his team also provide in-depth macro research on fundamental topics such as earnings, dividends, and cash flow.Ed writes several U.S. Strategy publications, which provide an intermediate-term outlook on U.S. markets via a combination of top-down and bottom-up analyses. He also writes a quarterly Benchmarks report, which analyzes the attribution of returns across asset classes, sectors, market cap, and styles. Ed has held a number of other positions since joining the firm in 2002, including Global Equity Strategist, Senior Global Analyst in the Global Asset Allocation group, and Analyst in the Custom Research Services department. Previously, Ed worked at Strong Capital Management and as a Market Strategist at J.C. Bradford & Co. 

The U.S. economy has been showing signs of strength, despite the challenges posed by the pandemic and ever-evolving global uncertainties. One of the most encouraging indicators is the unemployment rate, which fell to 3.7% in November.What does this mean for the markets? What is the outlook for 2024?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore the current state of the economy and job market, inflation, and market performance. They address the good news of the unemployment drop, the Federal Reserve's approach to inflation, and the positive outlook for investors in 2024.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The positive trends in the job market, highlighting the recent good news in employment numbersThe significance of the JOLTS report, highlighting Jerome Powell's concern over openings per unemployed workerThe recent decrease in used car prices and its potential impact on inflationThe current state of inflation and the Fed's decision to keep rates high, with speculation on potential rate cuts in the futureWhy small caps and mid-caps have been outperformingThe positive stock market indicatorsAn anticipation for the Fed meeting and the discussion on potential rate cuts for 2024, as well as the upcoming CPI reportAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Recessions are periods of economic contraction that typically last for several months or longer. With all the news about a possible recession for 2024, will we actually experience one?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, explore some of the indicators and factors that suggest that the current economic situation is not indicative of a recession, and that the stock market is still optimistic about the future. They also pay tribute to Charlie Munger, one of the most influential and respected investors of our time, and share some of his wisdom and insights on investing and life.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The strong performance of stocks in November and the resilience of the 60/40 portfolioAn analysis of the S&P 500 performance after gaining 8.9% in a monthQuotes and insights from Charlie Munger, emphasizing his ability to connect with people through stories and his advice on investingThe Dow and S&P 500 are at or near all-time highs, indicating that the market is looking forward and suggesting that a recession is not currently expectedThe strong performance and growth in manufacturing and construction sectorsAn Analysis of the robustness of balance sheets in corporate America and householdsThe sustained strength of consumer spending, with references to net wealth, stock ownership, and consumption trendsAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors. Based on the increases we've seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group chat about the year-end rally in the stock market, exploring factors such as seasonal trends, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and positive market sentiment. Additionally, they touch on record-breaking Black Friday sales, potential interest rate cuts, and the impact on the housing market.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The year-end rally in the stock market and the shift in sentiment from bearish to bullishThe S&P's four-week win streak and the significance of persistent buying in the marketThe broadening participation of sectors and stocks in the market rallyBlack Friday sales and statisticsConsumer debt and net worth, highlighting how households are in better financial shape now compared to pre-COVID timesWhy the increase in mortgage rates did not have a significant impact on the consumer and the housing marketA speculation on the potential for inflation to decrease and rate cuts to occur in 2024And more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

Claudia Sahm, former Federal Reserve economist and leading expert on macroeconomic policy, joins Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese to discuss the Sahm Rule as an indicator of recessions, the impact of COVID-19 on the economy, and insights from her time at the Federal Reserve. They explore topics such as the mismatch between the supply of workers and the demand for jobs, the importance of shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index, and the potential impact of recent productivity growth on long-term investments.

With the recent inflation data, can we say that the Fed has stopped raising rates? How will this affect the economy if this is to happen? What’s next for the stock market for the remainder of the year?In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group & Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group dive into inflation, the Federal Reserve, and the stock market. They explore the recent inflation data and its implications for the Fed. Additionally, they touch on the potential catalysts for a year-end market rally and the current state of credit spreads in the market.Ryan and Sonu discuss: The inflation data and how it confirms the belief that the Fed is done with rate hikesThe positive impact of lower inflation on small cap stocksWhy small caps and midcaps are performing well due to expectations of lower interest ratesA potential year-end rallyHow rising interest rates negatively affected stocksThe potential positive effects of lower interest rates on mortgage rates and housing activityOptimism about opportunities in the marketAnd more!Resources:Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Connect with Ryan Detrick: LinkedIn: Ryan DetrickConnect with Sonu Varghese: LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

In this podcast, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese discuss the recent market rally and potential year-end rally, the actions of the Federal Reserve and their impact on the economy, the disconnect between the labor market and inflation, the growth in the labor force and low number of layoffs, and the anticipation for the future in the markets.