On Investing

In this final episode of 2025, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones reflect on a year marked by uncertainty and volatility in the markets. They discuss the ping-pong nature of policy changes, the resilience of the economy, and the impact of retail traders on market sentiment. Their analysis also touches on the speculation surrounding the next Fed chair and the mixed signals from recent job data. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Currency trading is speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly.  For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions The book 4000 Weeks: Time Management for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.) has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.(1225-MVBY) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this insightful conversation, Kevin Gordon, Head of Macro Research at Charles Schwab, discusses the shifting dynamics of the U.S. economy and the rising concerns of a K-shaped recovery. He explores the implications of inflation trends, labor market challenges, and the impact of AI on capital expenditures. Collin Martin, a fixed income strategist, delves into corporate credit quality and recommends investment-grade bonds. Meanwhile, Cooper Howard highlights the resilience of municipal bonds, emphasizing their strong ratings and tax-equivalent advantages.

The discussion delves into the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair and its implications for market dynamics. The hosts analyze how a politicized nomination might influence interest rates and bond yields. They explore varying perspectives among Fed members and the complexities of global central banks on long-term yields. Additionally, listeners learn about the rising dispersion in equity markets, revealing investment opportunities beyond the typical big players. Finally, they preview key economic data this week and what it could mean for federal decisions.

In this conversation, Peter Atwater, a researcher and author, dives into his Confidence Map framework, detailing how investor sentiment shapes decision-making. He discusses the impact of social media on market movements and the need for portfolios that reflect varied emotional states rather than historical trends. Peter also explores the K-shaped economy and how generational differences influence confidence levels. His insights offer a fresh perspective on navigating the complexities of investing amid uncertainty.

Mike Townsend, a Washington-based political analyst at Charles Schwab, shares his insights on the recent end of the government shutdown. He discusses the key provisions in the agreement, including back pay for federal workers and the political implications of the Affordable Care Act subsidies. The conversation also delves into the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the timeline for resuming reliable government data. Townsend emphasizes that while debt concerns linger, political will to address them seems limited in the near term.

This discussion highlights key insights from the ADP jobs report, revealing a modest job gain that may keep the Fed on hold. The impact of the government shutdown on data collection is significant, suggesting upcoming reports could be messy. They delve into the latest earnings season, showcasing strong growth despite increasing dispersion among large tech firms. The conversation also explores a shift away from low-quality 'zombie' companies, urging a focus on higher-quality stocks as market dynamics evolve.

David Beckworth, a Senior Research Fellow at the Mercatus Center and host of the Macro Musings podcast, shares his insights into the complexities of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. He discusses the implications of stablecoins and CBDCs, highlighting their potential to reshape the financial landscape. Beckworth outlines strategies for the Fed to calmly downsize its balance sheet and addresses the challenges posed by rising federal debt. His expertise sheds light on how these monetary shifts impact investors and the economy.

This week, Collin Martin sits in for Liz Ann Sonders. Kathy Jones and Collin discuss the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut. They analyze the current state of the credit markets, particularly focusing on recent defaults and the implications for high-yield bonds. The discussion also covers the demand dynamics in private-versus-public credit markets and the potential risks associated with high-yield investments. Finally, they look ahead to upcoming economic indicators and the challenges posed by a lack of data.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer’s continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index- Measures the performance of the US Dollar-Denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. It is a market-value weighted index.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1025-02S5) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Pat Harker, former president of the Philadelphia Fed and current Penn Wharton professor, delves into pressing economic challenges, including the impact of the government shutdown on monetary data. He highlights the importance of private-sector data as complements to traditional stats. Harker also warns of risks to Fed independence amid political pressures and discusses balancing inflation with labor market needs. He shares insights from his tenure, emphasizing pragmatic policymaking and potential solutions for long-term debt challenges.

This week, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the implications of the ongoing government shutdown and the impact on key economic indicators and market data. They analyze the current state of the bond and equity markets, the reliance on alternative data sources in the absence of government data, and the upcoming earnings season. Their conversation highlights the bifurcations in market performance, particularly between larger and smaller companies, and the impact of fiscal policy on global bond markets. They also touch on consumer behavior in response to tariffs and the importance of monitoring key economic indicators moving forward.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) are inflation-linked securities issued by the US Government whose principal value is adjusted periodically in accordance with the rise and fall in the inflation rate. Thus, the dividend amount payable is also impacted by variations in the inflation rate, as it is based upon the principal value of the bond. It may fluctuate up or down. Repayment at maturity is guaranteed by the US Government and may be adjusted for inflation to become the greater of the original face amount at issuance or that face amount plus an adjustment for inflation. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are guaranteed by the US Government, but inflation-protected bond funds do not provide such a guarantee.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1025-T88J) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.