On Investing

Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP Research, studies jobs, wages, and technology’s impact on work. She explores what 26 million paychecks reveal about payroll trends, overtime, job-switching premiums, labor shortages, and purchasing power. The conversation also examines AI’s uneven effects across generations and the skills needed for technology to boost productivity.

Eric Liu, co-founder and Head of Equities at Vanda Research, studies investor positioning and market flows. He explains how retail traders, quantitative funds, and prediction markets are reshaping market dynamics. The conversation explores neutral positioning, unwound crowded trades, emerging markets, concentration, and why large-cap technology remains dominant as higher yields and geopolitical shocks test equities.

Rising yields may be telling a very different story than they did in the Great Moderation era. Record stock indexes conceal narrow mega-cap tech leadership, weak breadth, and widespread drawdowns. The discussion explores bond positioning in a higher-for-longer environment, the appeal of short and intermediate maturities, and upcoming jobs and inflation data that could shape Federal Reserve policy.

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin examine the Fed’s latest rate hike and the persistent inflation keeping policy tight. They explore the stock selloff, Treasury yields topping 5%, AI-driven investment, fiscal concerns, and the forces pushing borrowing costs higher. They also preview upcoming inflation, labor, sentiment, and business-activity data.

Ivy Zelman, co-founder of Zelman & Associates and a leading housing-market analyst, examines a housing slowdown without clear recession signals. She explores affordability, mortgage lock-in, construction barriers, regional divides, and the retreat of rental investors. The conversation also looks at younger adults, multigenerational living, data centers, and demographic shifts that could reshape housing demand and consumer spending.

Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech raises the odds of another rate hike and puts renewed pressure on markets. The discussion explores higher yields, vulnerable technology stocks, the importance of tightening speed, and a more volatile inflation era. AI infrastructure faces political and supply hurdles, while jobs, inflation, credit, and business sentiment data come into focus.

They examine why inflation stays stubborn, pointing to energy costs, tariffs, and AI-driven investment. They discuss Treasury efforts to pull down long-term yields and whether buybacks mask bigger fiscal problems. They explore tension between fiscal moves and Fed policy. They preview key upcoming economic data that could reshape rate expectations.

Jim Bullard, former St. Louis Fed president and monetary policy researcher now in academia. He warns the Fed may be tolerating ~3% inflation instead of 2%. They discuss which data matter for policy, AI’s productivity potential and financing, geopolitical risks, and how markets are pricing a higher-for-longer rate world.

Dr. Richard Clarida, former Federal Reserve Vice Chair and Columbia professor, brings macroeconomic and monetary-policy expertise. He breaks down how policymakers read inflation, labor markets, and supply shocks. He also explores AI’s near-term inflationary risks and longer-term productivity effects, plus what changing Fed leadership could mean for communications.

With Liz Ann Sonders away, Collin Martin is joined by Schwab Head of Macro Research and Strategy Kevin Gordon for an in-depth conversation on the economy, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, equities, and global markets. The episode opens with the idea that "good news can be bad news" for markets. Kevin explains that strong economic data, particularly in the labor market, can sometimes hurt stocks because it increases the likelihood of tighter monetary policy. The conversation then turns to interest rates and the surprising resilience of markets despite elevated bond yields. Collin and Kevin discuss the Fed's increasingly hawkish tone, the unusual presence of multiple dissents favoring rate hikes, and concerns about communication from Chair Kevin Warsh.  Looking ahead, Collin and Kevin identify inflation data, labor-market reports, Fed commentary, retail sales, and inflation-expectation surveys as the key indicators investors should monitor in the weeks ahead. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Currencies are speculative, very volatile and not suitable for all investors. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Diversification, rebalancing, and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider that offers vast computing, storage, and networking resources through a distributed infrastructure of interconnected servers and software. (0826-TEWK) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.