On Investing

Parsing the Latest Inflation Numbers

Jul 18, 2025
In this discussion, the experts break down the latest inflation data and its implications for the Federal Reserve's decision-making. They dive into how tariffs affect core goods and analyze rising global yields. The impact of a weaker dollar on the tech industry is examined, alongside the booming job market for AI engineers. Challenges in the housing market are highlighted, particularly issues around affordability and stagnant sales, making it a timely exploration of current economic dynamics.
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INSIGHT

Tariff Impact Hidden in Inflation

  • Inflation data reveals tariff impacts hidden beneath headline numbers, especially in core goods excluding autos.
  • Goods affected by tariffs rise, while non-tariff goods prices stay flat or fall, signaling inflation components diverging.
INSIGHT

Complacency Masks Market Risks

  • Market momentum driven by retail traders and short covering reveals lingering complacency about tariffs.
  • Large institutional speculators remain risk-averse, hinting the upside pain trade persists.
INSIGHT

Fed's Dilemma on Inflation and Rates

  • Inflation is turning upward again, nearing 2.5%-3%, complicating Federal Reserve's rate cut prospects.
  • Fed likely to hold rates steady unless labor market softens with rising unemployment.
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