Forward Guidance

*AUDIO DISCLAIMER: Mic issue during the recording led to some high levels on Jack's end. We're aware, and we're sorry! Might want to tap the volume down a couple notches for this one.Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Forward Guidance to break down the rapidly escalating hostility between Russia and Ukraine. Shapiro puts in context including Russia’s recognition of Luhansk and Donestk as independent sovereign republics and the punitive sanctions on Russia. Shapiro tells Jack Farley that, if Russian tanks roll down the tanks of Kiev, the West might cut Russia off from the payment rails for global commerce, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). If Russia were unable to sell its natural gas, wheat, and other commodities in Western markets, Shapiro continues, there could be a commodity “doom loop” that would cause prices to skyrocket. Shapiro also shares his outlook on China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Shapiro also serves as chief strategist at Perch Perspectives and the Geopolitics editor at Lykeion. This interview was recorded on Tuesday, February 22, at 10 am Eastern Time.Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShapFollow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectivesFollow Lykeion @thelykeion___If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Bilal Hafeez joins Jack Farley to discuss and analyse the differences between Europe and the United States on this episode of Forward Guidance. Not only does he lay out the departing events and patterns that distinct each region, but also explore other countries, like China and Brazil.Along with that, Hafeez also outlines his crypto views, experience during the last two years, and what he sees going forward for crypto. Follow Bilal Hafeez @bilalhafeez123Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack_If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, brings his expertise in trading, timing, and technicals to Forward Guidance. Thornton shares with Jack Farley the serious risks he sees to the stock market, such as the end of quantitative easing (QE), coordinated central bank rate hikes, widening spreads, inverted yield curves, and, perhaps most importantly, the highest inflation in 40 years.Tommy Thornton’s Twitter: @TommyThorntonJack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks__If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) tackle the latest in central banking news, from the the Bank of Japan’s (8301.T) announcement that it would pin Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 25 basis points, to the massively-overhyped “emergency” Fed meeting on Monday, to St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard’s comments that the Federal Reserve’s credibility is “on the line.”Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Jack Farley to share in-depth his framework for understanding the new interplay of inflation, the Fed, and asset prices in 2022. Bianco argues that the mounting pressures on central banks to tame inflation mean that they are far less worried about maintaining asset prices. Bianco and Farley also discuss DeFi as a threat to the traditional banking industry and the profound economic and social consequences of the rise of work-from-home. Filmed on February 9, 2022.Follow Jim Bianco @biancoresearchFollow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack._If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Alex Gurevich, CIO of Honte Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his learnings from running a large macro hedge fund during the gut-wrenching volatility of March 2020. Using time-date transcripts and charts from his new book, “The Trades of March 2020: A Shield against Uncertainty,” Gurevich tells of the epic mispricings and gut-wrenching drawdowns that sent shockwaves through the global financial world. Gurevich provides insight on institutional macro products such as Eurodollar options, oil futures, currency swaps, and much more. Gurevich looks forward and tells Farley his current outlook on Fed Fund Futures, long-term bonds, as well as risk-assets (“beta”) such as equities and commodities.Alex Gurevich on Twitter: @agurevich23Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Co-hosts Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) break down the surge in European bonds in response to the hawkish shift of Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB). Wang explains his most recent post on the damage that rate hikes inflict onto holders of fixed-income instruments, and the two explore the significance and consequences of a globally coordinated effort by central banks to stop inflation in its tracks.Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Wang’s most recent article on Quantitative hikes: https://fedguy.com/quantitative-hikes/Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Porter Collins and Vincent Daniels were some of the last investors to bet against the Federal Reserve and win. Over 13 years after the events of “The Big Short,” they reflect on the past decade wherein the Federal Reserve tamed asset price volatility by keeping short-term rates very low and steadily expanding their balance sheet via quantitative easing (QE). Learning from this lesson, Daniels and Collins explains how Seawolf Capital largely avoided shorting stocks during 2021 because the Fed had the market’s back. Now that high inflation has forced the Fed’s hand to tighten monetary policy, Daniels and Collins think that 2022 will be an excellent year for short-selling, and that in particular the most vulnerable stocks are unprofitable growth companies that saw enormous price appreciation in 2020 and 2021. The pair explain why they remain bullish on nuclear energy, the cannabis industry, as well as stocks in the shipping and energy sector.Follow Porter Collins @SeawolfcapFollow Vincent Daniels @VD718Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions. BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies. For more information, please visit bcbgroup.com/jack.--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley sits down with Liz Young for a market 101 breakdown. Not only does Liz investigate some of the broader market trends, but narrows focus to explain how human behaviour, current events, and the Fed's mechanisms have all culminated in what we see today.

Jack Farley welcomes back former senior trader for the Fed, Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”), to analyze an action-packed week in which global central banks such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank (ECB) release their plans for forthcoming monetary policy. Wang explains why a continued rise in the U.S. Dollar relative to other fiat currencies would likely force other central banks to tighten at a rate they deem to be too fast. Farley fields questions from the audience regarding balance sheet run-off and pace of rate hikes, and he poses to Wang the eternal questions: “are reserves money”?Joseph Wang’s writings can be found at: https://fedguy.com/Joseph Wang’s Twitter: @FedGuy12Jack Farley’s Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks Twitter: @Blockworks_Link to Blockworks’ newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/