Forward Guidance

The yield curve has flattened dramatically - should investors be worried as the curve is very close to inverting? Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman are on the case.Follow Harley Bassman @ConvexityMavenFollow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow @Blockworks_Bassman's most recent piece: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Convexity-Maven-Dangerous-Curves-Ahead.pdfWang's most recent piece: https://fedguy.com/breaking-the-system/

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Luke Gromen, Founder of FFTT to discuss the situation the Fed finds itself in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years. With a debt to GDP over 100%, is the Fed trapped and inflation the only way out? Luke discusses the post 1971 Nixon shock's effect on the Dollar and walks us through the series of events which led to the Fed now being faced with, a "debt death spiral".Jim explains how inflation is President Biden's biggest problem and what this means for rate hikes ahead of FOMC. Are there signs of a recession in the U.S economy as commodities soar, the 2s 10s yield curve spread tightens & OIS spreads turn negative? Jim & Luke provide an absolute macro power hour you CAN'T afford to miss. To hear their thoughts on commodities, stress in the treasury market, effect of Russia & Ukraine conflict, sanctions speeding up the trend of de-dollarization & the death of globilazation, you're just going to have to tune in to find out.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Willem Middelkoop, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of the Dutch-based Commodity Discovery Fund joins Forward Guidance to asses the macro forces driving commodity markets. What effect will war in Ukraine have on wheat, natural gas & oil prices around the globe? Willem goes on to discuss his book from 2014 titled 'The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame' and how current events are shaping a monetary reset.Willem also describes the famous 1971 Nixon shock, what a gold revaluation would look like, how sanctions could effect commodity markets, the roadmap to a $1 Million Bitcoin & how investors can navigate these volatile markets._Willem Middelkoop on Twitter @wmiddelkoopJack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Jeff Snider to discuss the Fed's control of the dollar and recent news surrounding the dollar's weight and worth.Follow Jeff Snider @JeffSnider_AIPFollow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks____If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the latest news and finds regarding the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine.Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShapFollow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectivesFollow Lykeion @thelykeion___If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Frances Coppola and Joseph Wang break down the true implications and mechanics of sanctions against Russia.Key learnings include:1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system.2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into effect until March 26 and contain many loopholes3) The sanctions on the Russia's Central Bank were declared by governments but *require* action from Fed + ECB4) The U.S. Treasury provided Russian commercial banks with a diagram teaching them how to circumvent its own policyFollow Frances Coppola @Frances_CoppolaFollow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12Follow @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called “inflation-trades” (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself.Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplify’s new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates.Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFsJack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks___BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack__Two papers Green discusses:Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, “In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967Lasse Heje Pedersen, “Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071_If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the impact of Russia's latest moves involving Ukraine.Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShapFollow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectivesFollow Lykeion @thelykeion___If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

*AUDIO DISCLAIMER: Mic issue during the recording led to some high levels on Jack's end. We're aware, and we're sorry! Might want to tap the volume down a couple notches for this one.Jacob Shapiro, Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Forward Guidance to break down the rapidly escalating hostility between Russia and Ukraine. Shapiro puts in context including Russia’s recognition of Luhansk and Donestk as independent sovereign republics and the punitive sanctions on Russia. Shapiro tells Jack Farley that, if Russian tanks roll down the tanks of Kiev, the West might cut Russia off from the payment rails for global commerce, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication). If Russia were unable to sell its natural gas, wheat, and other commodities in Western markets, Shapiro continues, there could be a commodity “doom loop” that would cause prices to skyrocket. Shapiro also shares his outlook on China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and Iran. Shapiro also serves as chief strategist at Perch Perspectives and the Geopolitics editor at Lykeion. This interview was recorded on Tuesday, February 22, at 10 am Eastern Time.Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShapFollow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectivesFollow Lykeion @thelykeion___If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter