Forward Guidance

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter--Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War(06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War?(15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War?(18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South(24:02) BCB Ad(25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas(34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession?(37:36) Inflation(42:28) The Fed(47:03) Final Reflection on President Lincoln

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin.--(00:00) Introduction(02:05) Background and Framework(05:01) Commodity Overview(11:00) Oil & Natural Gas(23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine(26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March(31:07) Backwardation & Contango(34:30) Bearish On Soybeans(39:26) Wheat(41:08) Shipping(46:08) Bearish Copper(48:50) Dollar Strength(50:32) Germany(55:40) Bitcoin

Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'.Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V--Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12Follow @Blockworks_If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle.Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterTimestamps(00:00) Introduction(02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021(03:57) Forecasting A Recession(08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation(14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe(16:42) Oil Market Outlook(19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy(25:12) BCB Group Ad(26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy?(39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil(41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World(57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market(1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility.Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0.--Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @KsidiiiFollow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve.42Macro website: https://42macro.com/Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDaleJack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_----BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it. Follow Andy Constan @dampedspringFollow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks____If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Nick Timiraos to discuss the Fed, forward guidance, and what the recent news all means for both.Follow Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraosFollow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks____If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Carson Block, Investor & Founder of Muddy Waters Research. Known for his role in activist short selling, Carson shares how he began his career in investing, what led him to being an activist short seller & reflects on the past two years of markets in the face of reckless monetary policy.Carson goes on to share the hows and whys of short selling, techniques for identifying fraudulent companies, differences between short selling in China vs the U.S, the role of activist short selling in markets and much more.Carson Block on Twitter @muddywatersreJack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, class is back in session with Imran Lakha as the attending professor. Going through the basics of options, Lakha turns his attentions not only to the absolute fundamentals, but to the whys and hows of options, explaining their use, what can affect them, and when and where they should not be used. Not only is this a perfunctory lesson in options but a deeper dive into their function into the economic world for beginners and masters alike of the macro trade.Lakha on Twitter: @options_insightFarley on Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_