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Forward Guidance
The Bear Market Is Here, What Next? | Joseph Wang & Alfonso Peccatiello
Jun 13, 2022
46:53
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- Market volatility is driven by rising inflation expectations, tightening financial conditions, and the potential for the Federal Reserve to hike rates above the neutral level.
- The reliability of the yield curve as an indicator of recessions has been diminished by structural changes in the market, but if the Federal Reserve tightens policy above the neutral rate, the curve could invert significantly.
Deep dives
Margin Cold Days and the Underlying Reasons for the Sell-off
The podcast episode discusses the concept of margin cold days, where leveraged investors face significant drawdowns and margin calls. However, the sell-off has been ongoing for several months due to macroeconomic reasons. The declining stock and bond markets are attributed to rising inflation expectations, tightening financial conditions, and the need for the Federal Reserve to potentially hike rates above the neutral level. This has created a challenging environment for investors, particularly in Europe, where the situation is even more complex.
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