Forward Guidance

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summithttps://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research:https://blockworks.co/get-research/--In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future.--Subscribe to Sal Mercogliano's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercoglianoFollow Sal Mercogliano on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation(15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry(22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes)(23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply(29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)(33:30) Learning From History(38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates(44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now?(47:11) Non-Owner Operators(52:26) Cruise Lines(1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates?(1:03:08) Individual Stocks--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summithttps://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research:https://blockworks.co/get-research/--In September, the Federal Reserve is set to remove even more liquidity from markets by taking its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program to the next level. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and veteran banker Chris Whalen, join Jack to explain how this additional wave of monetary tightening will send shockwaves through markets, particularly the two assets that comprise the Fed’s balance sheet: U.S. Treasuries and agency Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS).Joseph argues that the U.S. Treasury will likely enact a “buyback” program of its longer-duration securities in order to dampen QT’s volatility, and Whalen contends that if the Federal Reserve sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (as opposed to merely letting them mature), armageddon will ensue.Filmed on August 17, 2022.--Read Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “The Marginal Buyer”: https://fedguy.com/the-marginal-buyer/Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalenFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Joseph Wang’s work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/Chris Whalen’s work can be found here: rcwhalen.com--(00:00) Introduction(01:32) The Effect of Quantitative Tightening (QT) On Commercial Banks(21:00) Vulnerabilities in The Treasury Market(25:15) The Conundrum in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)(32:30) The Fed's Banking "Stress Test"(43:43) Swelling Reverse Repo Facility(48:22) The Fed's Giant Mortgage Problem(59:53) How Far Will The Fed Go In Hiking Rates?(1:02:03) Why Is The Fed's Balance Sheet Not Going Down During QT?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This is a recording of a Twitter spaces in which Jack Farley exchanges macro views with Alfonso Peccatiello, in a preview to their conversation at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit in September 2022, which will feature Mike Green, Danielle DiMartino Booth, and Jurrien Timmer. This recording also featured Andy Constan and Michael Kantrowitz.--Use code MACRO200 to get discounted tickets to the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/?gclid=CjwKCAjwo_KXBhAaEiwA2RZ8hIgyUQTvJmP-g0qAclP5WXFdpLdZSLkarlMTWE9_Po341_j_x5FBBBoCojkQAvD_BwE--Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summithttps://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research:https://blockworks.co/get-research/--Jeffrey Sherman, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, joins Jack to discuss how fixed income markets are handling a slowing economy and the Federal’s Reserve’s withdrawal of monetary accommodation.Sherman breaks down how bond values over 2022 have dropped as credit spreads have widened and interest rates have risen. Sherman shares his outlook on the corporate bonds, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Sherman is circumspect after a strong two-month rally but thinks at this stage there is value to be found in agency & non-agency MBS as well as long-duration Treasury bonds. Filmed on August 10, 2022.--Follow The Sherman Show on Twitter https://twitter.com/ShermanShowPodFollow DoubleLine Capital on Twitter https://twitter.com/DLineCapFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(06:02) Are We In A Recession?(14:01 )The Inverted Yield Curve(22:25) Liquidity(33:09) The "End" Of Forward Guidance(41:17) Outlook on Long-Term Treasury Yields(46:55) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summithttps://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research:https://blockworks.co/get-research/--Hugh Hendry, macro investor and former chief investment officer of Eclectica Asset Management, joins Jack Farley to make the case that central banks are not in control of the global monetary order. Hendry argues that an inverted yield curve is showing that the Federal Reserve is making a severe policy error. He insists that the rises in consumer prices is not “inflation” as he defines it because they are not due to the extending of credit by commercial banks.Hendry passionately exhorts the Chinese ruling class to empower the Chinese consumer and allow the Chinese Yuan (“RenMinBi”) to strengthen to what Hendry thinks is its true market value. Hendry tells Farley he expects commodity prices to remain high due to bad energy policy and he thinks that portfolio managers who are fueling the recent rally in risk assets are making a mistake. Filmed on August 4th, 2022.--Follow Hugh Hendry on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hendry_hughFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Timecodes:(00:00) Introduction(09:56) Why Rising Consumer Prices Is Not Inflation(11:06) The Energy Crisis(19:13) Paul Volcker(21:56) China and the Global "Glut of Saving"(28:09) The Eurodollar System(34:08) Is The Fed Effective(39:31) Did the Fed save the world in 2020--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/si…Bill Wolf, Chief Investment Officer at TrustToken/TrustLabs joins Jack Farley to talk about all things blockchain: his journey into this new form of currency, real GDP loans, and stablecoins.Bill and Jack talk about TrustToken and the services its business offers in the trading and lending space. What red flags does TrustToken find to help other firms who are looking to invest or take out loans? While struggling lenders in the CeFi space had no choice but to declare bankruptcy, Bill tells Jack that his company TrustToken has never had a single default on its platform. Watch to find out how his company avoided risks that have taken many other companies out.Filmed the afternoon of August 2, 2022. Be on the lookout for The Investors Guide to TrueFi Capital Markets, coming out soon on Blockworks.co.--Follow TrustToken on Twitter https://twitter.com/TrustTokenFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:55) Bill's Journey into Blockchain(07:58) Real GDP Loans on Blockchain(17:05) Stablecoins(23:26) Tether(26:08) TrustToken's Structure(38:05) Lending Terms(47:34) Interest Rate Risks(49:13) Fee Structure(53:15) Definition Of A Credit Loss(57:25) Lender Protections(59:45) Correlation Risk(1:08:47) "We're All Going To Pay For The Sins of Others"(1:10:24) The Future Of Blockchain Lending(1:13:57) The Fed--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://www.blockworksresearch.com/sign-up--Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire joins Jack Farley to talk all things housing: how has the housing market changed since 2019 and what will happen to homes as we approach a recession?Logan and Jack talk about inventory and rates in the housing market, as well as the challenges homebuyers may have entering this space. Does Logan think we will be able to get out this unhealthy real estate market soon? You need to watch to find out!Filmed the afternoon of August 1, 2022.--Follow Logan Motashimi on Twitter https://twitter.com/LoganMohtashamiFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:58) The Current Health of the Real Estate Market(12:37) Inventory(16:30) Building Homes in the Early 2000's(22:06) Rates(31:51) Signs of a Recession(48:44) Challenges in the Housing Market(55:38) The State of Housing(1:04:16) Effects of a Housing Recession--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summit https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/--Jacob Shapiro, partner and director of geopolitical analysis at Cognitive Investments, joins Jack Farley for an impromptu bonus episode to cover how tensions in the South Pacific are rapidly ratcheting up. Shapiro explains the potential economic and geopolitical consequences of ongoing conflict between China and Taiwan, and he and Jack also dive deep into the Chinese real estate crisis.Filmed on August 4, 2022.--Follow Jacob Shapiro on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShapFollow Cognitive Investments on Twitter: https://twitter.com/CognitiveInvestFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/--In the summer of 2020, there was no greater proponent of the “commodity supercycle” thesis - the idea that commodity prices would appreciate for many years in a secular fashion - than Tian Yang, founder of Variant Perception. Since then, commodity prices - copper, oil, natural gas, you name it - have skyrocketed. Yet Yang now argues that the commodity supercycle is in “intermission” because economic growth is slowing rapidly and liquidity is collapsing as central banks rapidly tightening monetary policy in order to combat inflation. Yang argues that long-term bonds (“duration) will likely perform well in this environment. Yang also shares his view on the Fed, inflation, volatility, and the dollar.Filmed on August 1, 2022.--Follow Tian Yang on Twitter https://twitter.com/VrntPerceptionFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(05:45) Liquidity Is Collapsing(10:04) How Quickly Will Inflation Fall?(21:38) Is The Fed Put Gone?(26:48) Recessions in Asia, Europe, and the U.S.(31:14) Are Chinese Stocks A Buy?(37:02) European Stocks(38:50) Is The Dollar Rally Over?(45:22) 1984 Historical Analogue(51:40) Term Premium, Explained(57:30) Confidence Levels About Future Inflation(1:02:08) Potential Hedges(1:07:44) Most Common Investor Mistake--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research: https://blockworks.co/get-research/--Noel Smith, Chief Investment Officer & founder at Convex Asset Management joins Jack Farley to talk all things volatility: how does it affect the S & P 500 options, stocks, and bonds? When Noel Smith first came on Forward Guidance in June, he predicted the market would not crash. That has played out very well as the S&P 500 has surged higher since then volatility has fallen. Since Noel’s prediction turned to be completely accurate, Jack wants to know: is Noel a genius, or did he just get lucky? Noel and Jack talk about the dispersion between index volatility and single stock volatility, as well as the flipping of stock/bond correlation. Does Noel think volatility will return to the markets? You need to watch to find out!Filmed the morning of July 27, 2022 (before the FOMC meeting).–Link to Noel’s first video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snBiim-UUWw--Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvexFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(01:30) Reflecting on Smith's Earlier Predictions(07:09) Forward Volatility(10:53) New Outlooks(19:08) Single Stock Volatility and Dispersion Trade(22:00) Navigating High Environments(27:34) The Fall of the 60/40 Portfolio(33:15) The Nature Of Money(37:08) Views on Trading Bonds and Volatility(44:52) Correlations Between Stocks And Sectors(49:52) Euro Dollar Futures Market vs. The Fed(54:40) S and P 500 Options Volatility Market(57:05) Short Squeezes(1:02:10) Looking at Revenues within Companies(1:04:12) Are we headed towards a recession?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.