Forward Guidance

Why has the U.S. dollar exploded higher this year against other currencies, and what does its rise mean for the global economy? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and outspoken dollar bull, joins Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast, to share his thoughts on what the strength of the greenback indicates about inflation, central banks, and growth rates. Johnson argues that a sovereign debt crisis for China and other emerging markets is within the cards. Filmed on September 14, 2022, on the second day of the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit.Follow Brent Johnson on Twitter https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFundFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Follow Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on Twitter https://twitter.com/BlockworksDAS

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/Ted Oakley, founder and managing partner of Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack Farley to argue that asset prices remain well above their fair value, and that the drawdowns investors have seen in 2022 are likely not over. Oakley shares his outlook on inflation, the business cycle, and the Federal Reserve, and he outlines where he is finding value and safety for his investors in this turbulent macro environment.Filmed on September 6, 2022.--Follow Oxbow Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/Oxbow_AdvisorsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(01:38) Why Stocks Remain Overvalued(11:04) Why A Deep Recession Is Imminent(16:02) Energy(20:52) Fixed Income(28:14) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation and Interest Rates(32:32) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve?(41:44) Contrarian View--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/--Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Jack to argue that European energy inflation will not, as many believe, cause an economic crisis. Instead, Dillian contends that, no matter the long-term consequences, governments will find solutions to the energy shortage such as price caps on commodity prices, which Dillian says will “crush” speculators. Dillian shares his framework for evaluating investor sentiment in order to discern the mood of the market and identify ideal turning points to take on contrarian positions.Filmed on September 8, 2022.--Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnapFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:33) Measuring Sentiment via Twitter(04:08) Why Jared Thinks Europe Can Handle Its Energy Situation(06:08) "Speculators Will Get Crushed"(08:08) The Low Cost Basis Fallacy(14:43) Natural Gas(16:30) Price Caps In Energy May Be Coming(21:07) Why Jared Was Bullish on Oil in early 2021(25:30) The Bubble In Macro Doom(27:12) Central Banks Can't Print Oil(31:43) Outlook on Housing & Stocks(36:22) Jared Dillian As Head Of The Federal Reserve(40:06) "Why Are You Not More Bearish?"(48:25) The Dollar(56:22) Longer-Term Outlook on Inflation(58:40) Jared's Book & Concert--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/--Today Jack welcomes Andy Constan, macro investor and publisher of The Damped Spring Report, and Joseph Wang, former senior Fed trader and author of Fedguy.com, to discuss how the Fed’s reduction of its balance sheet via quantitative tightening (QT) is impacting market liquidity and future returns.Constan argues that favorable market conditions that allowed risk assets to rise during the summer are no longer present, and that this “false dawn” is over. Wang argues that QT will drain the banking system of reserves and the Fed may have to plug “leaks” in the financial plumbing.Filmed on September 7, 2022.--Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:44) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Markets(10:38) Equity & Bond Market Flows Over The Past Few Months(15:46) Volatility (Vol) Targeting(24:18) Equity Risk Premium Model(32:13) The "False Dawn" In Asset Prices(38:28) Joseph Wang on Treasury Issuance(43:58) Joseph on "The Reserve Gap"(53:50) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime(57:11) Andy Constan's Outlook on Bonds(1:02:02) How Far Can The Fed Go In Hiking Rates?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/--On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack interviews prolific author and journalist, Bethany McLean. McLean's known most prominently for her 2003 book, The Smartest Guys in The Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. With her coverage of financial scandals in the early 2000s, no one is better equipped for today's discussion about fraud, loopholes, and more. McLean interprets the seismic disruptions in the housing and energy market through her prior work on mortgage-securitizing giant Fannie Mae and on the American shale revolution. McLean argues that financial crimes always require the complicity of the victim, and contends that anyone who thinks they can predict the energy markets or inflation is sorely mistaken.--Follow Bethany McLean on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bethanymac12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:31) How Was The Enron Fraud Allowed To Happen?(12:18) The Rise of Legal Fraud(19:07) Dotcom Bubble 2.0 and Private Equity(23:53) The Housing, Mortgage, and Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Markets(31:55) Inflation And The (Reverse) Wealth Effect(34:34) The Energy Crisis(46:00) Green Energy(48:20) McLean's New Book(49:26) Fictitious Billionaires And Other Hangovers From The 2020 Money Printing Bonanza--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/--Every day, trillions of dollars worth of interest rate derivatives are traded back and forth. And yet despite its stunning size today, 50 years ago the interest rate derivative complex did not exist at all. Today Jack interviews Dr. Richard Sandor, chairman and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX), who is known as the “father of financial futures” because he created the world’s first interest rate and bond futures in the 1970s. Sandor explains how the relentless inflation of the 1970s caused wild swings in interest rates that jeopardized financial stability, and how the financial futures he created helped tame (or at the very least, transfer) these risks.Sandor argues that the London Interbank Offering Rate (LIBOR) to which many interest rate futures (often called “eurodollar futures”) are still pegged has been “discredited” by the schemes of banks to manipulate it (see link below on LIBOR scandal). Sandor shares his vision for the forthcoming LIBOR replacement in June 2023, and tells Jack about his company’s benchmark, AMERIBOR.--Article on LIBOR scandal: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/libor-scandal.aspMore info on Dr. Richard Sandor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_L._SandorFollow Dr. Richard Sandor on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drrichardsandorFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:40) Creating The World's First Interest Rate Future(18:16) Creating A Two-Sided Market(24:10) Paul Volcker's Role In Creating Interest Rate Volatility(27:00) Eurodollars: "LIBOR Is Dead, The Emperor Has No Clothes"(35:21) Replacements for LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)(47:44) Carbon Futures--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/--With the summer rally in risk assets two weeks in the rear view mirror, Jack welcomes two experts on the plumbing of the monetary system, former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minsky” and writer of the “Soon Parted” newsletter. Neilson and Wang exchange views on just how high the Federal Reserve will hike rates in order to tame inflation, with Wang calling Fed chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole a “great performance.”Neilson shares insights on the changing size and composition of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet, and then he proceeds to teach Jack about what the relative levels of various “repo” rates indicates about the supply and demand for Treasury collateral. Lastly, Neilson shares his views on government crackdown of crypto mixer Tornado Cash. Daniel H. Neilson is the principal of Neilson Macro Advisors and author of Minsky from Polity Books, and his newsletter is called Soon Parted.Filmed on August 31, 2022.--Link to Daniel Neilson’s piece on the balance sheet of the European Central Bank (ECB): https://www.soonparted.co/p/defragLink to Daniel Neilson’s piece on Tornado Cash: https://www.soonparted.co/p/tornado-cashFollow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilsonFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/Daniel Neilson’s writings can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:30) Analysis of Powell's Remarks at Jackson Hole(09:54) Inflation Expectations(17:17) Just How Far Behind The Curve Is The European Central Bank (ECB)?(29:38) Plumbing Of The Repo System (Warning: Very Advanced)(49:37) Tornado Cash--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ New York Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit (sale ends Sunday): https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/--NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole.Jack welcomes former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and Michael “Mish” Shedlock, economic blogger and investment advisor, to analyze the twin threats of inflation and recession, and the challenges investors and the Federal Reserve face as they try to navigate both. Shedlock argues that the economy is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve will likely overtighten which could “kill” the stock market. Wang argues that the risk is that the Federal Reserve is too loose, and notes that an excerpt from the July FOMC minutes which Wang saw as “cowardly” caused Wang to be more open to the view that Powell will cave to dovish political pressure. In his own words, “this is the Fed of Arthur Burns.” NOTE: This interview was filmed on August 23, 2022, days before Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole.--Follow Mish Shedlock on Twitter https://twitter.com/MishGEAFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Joseph Wang’s work can be found here: https://fedguy.com/Mish Shedlock’s writings can be found here: https://mishtalk.com/Mish’s article on housing: https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-home-sales-crash-accelerates-sales-down-12-6-percent-in-julyJuly FOMC minutes: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20220727.pdf--(00:00) Introduction(01:37) Are We In A Recession Already?(05:48) Housing(15:00) Stagflation(19:58)The Stock Market(21:12) The Wang Pivot(29:27) The Commercial Banking System(35:16) Asset Allocation(36:51) Gold(39:53) The Pension Crisis--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summithttps://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research:https://blockworks.co/get-research/--On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by Paul Latronica to discuss convertible bonds as an asset class, and more.--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(01:08) What Are Convertible Bonds?(05:00) An Example(19:56) Correlation Between Convertible Bonds and Equity(33:13) Current Valuations(50:44) Finding Alpha In Convertible Bonds(55:20) Current Outlook(1:01:51) Avoiding Pitfalls(1:05:24) Greatest Risk For Convertible Bonds(1:09:33) The Federal Reserve(1:17:32) Most Frequent Mistake--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code JACK250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks Digital Asset Summithttps://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-new-york/Use code “guidance” to get 50% off Blockworks Research:https://blockworks.co/get-research/--In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Dr. Sal Mercogliano, maritime historian and shipping expert, who discusses the current global shipping crisis and its trajectory for the future.--Subscribe to Sal Mercogliano's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercoglianoFollow Sal Mercogliano on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(01:09) Shipping As The Ultimate Driver Of Inflation(15:15) Consolidation In The Shipping Industry(22:11) Are There Enough Ships? (Answer: Yes)(23:38) Emission Reduction Goals In Shipping As A Headwind To New Supply(29:11) Liquified Natural Gas (LNG)(33:30) Learning From History(38:28) Recession's Impact on Shipping Rates(44:50) How Profitable Is Shipping Now?(47:11) Non-Owner Operators(52:26) Cruise Lines(1:00:50) Futures On Freight Rates?(1:03:08) Individual Stocks--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.