Forward Guidance

Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Fed’s current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake.--Follow Richard Field on Twitter https://twitter.com/tyillcFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___--Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off:  https://fgpodcast.link/algorand--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “Algorand Promotion”(00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize(04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake?(14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?(28:02) “Algorand Promotion”(29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?(30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake?(37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field(52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation"(54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It?(57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market?(01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent?(01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008"(01:37:34) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment.Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.--Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppyFollow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SeawolfcapFollow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COMFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceMore info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “KEDM promotion”(00:51) Intro(01:07) Overall Macro Thesis(11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve?(16:06) The Bull Case For Oil(22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting(30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong"(35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment(40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil(55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season(1:02:41) A Market Crash(1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM)(1:11:19) “KEDM promotion”(1:12:16) Outro--Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.comDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

It’s banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking (taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans.That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalen’s unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, you’ll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14.--Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0eFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “Bittrex Ad”(00:10) Intro(00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks(03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over"(07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend)(09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning(12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be?(16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business(21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT)(23:18) “Bittrex Ad”(23:49) Winter For Investment Banking(27:48) The Biggest Risks(30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat(35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)(38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses?(47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America(55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession?(58:09) FinTech(59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS)(01:01:51) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Filmed on October 11, 2022.When George Noble, creator of the $NOPE ETF and veteran hedge fund manager, appeared on Forward Guidance in May, he said that equities represented “return free risk” and that the bear market was just getting started. Now that equities are down over 10% since his last appearance, Noble returns to Forward Guidance to tell Jack that he is extremely bearish, and in fact that he would be shocked if the S&P 500 weren’t under 3000 within 3 months (as of time of recording on October 11, 2022, the S&P 500 stood at 3850).__George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) intro(03:30) U.K. Gilt Crisis(16:20) The Labor Market(20:16) Energy and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)(22:52) The Bull Market In Narratives Is Over(27:20) Just How Bearish Are You, George?'(30:51) The Bull Case(34:07) The Bond Market Is Wrong(39:02) Will A Recession Cause The Fed To Come To The Rescue?(47:03) Cash Is King(50:33) Bad News Is Bad News(58:51) When Will The Market Bottom?(01:09:28) Frogs In The Pot--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack Farley welcomes two financial heavyweights who, in Jack’s view, have predicted and understood this year’s sell-off in bonds more accurately and clearly than anyone else in finance: Harley Bassman, founder of the MOVE Index and managing partner at Simplify Asset Management, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve.Bassman and Wang agree that it is likely that short-term interest rates are close to peaking, but that long-term bonds remain vulnerable to the triple threats of convexity, illiquidity, and duration.Wang argues that the illiquidity in the U.K. gilt market might be a harbinger for the other sovereign bond markets around the world (including the U.S. Treasury market), and Bassman shares several parts of fixed-income that he personally finds attractive, such as AA 22-year callable municipal debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Filmed on October 6th, 2022.--Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex--Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://rb.gy/q0eztpFollow Harley Bassman on Twitter https://rb.gy/8a1rs4Follow Simplify on Twitter https://rb.gy/pavfziFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Bassman is the creator of the Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF ($PFIX), which, on a total return basis as of October 6th, 2022, is up 80% year-to-date and is up 35% since inception in September 2021. Wang’s writings can be found at https://rb.gy/oocxuz and Bassman’s latest commentary as “The Convexity Maven” can be found here: https://rb.gy/xbibuj.--Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://rb.gy/uxefzoGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) Introduction(01:00) Is The Sell-Off In Sovereign Bonds Finally Over?(11:57) Risks in The Stock Market(13:53) When Will Powell Pivot?(18:45) The Housing Market Is Already Broken(20:37) What Will Be The First To Break?(28:08) “Bittrex Ad”(28:42) What Will Be The First To Break?(28:45) How To Hedge Against A Bond Market Sell-Off(34:39) Bullish on High-Rated Long-Term Municipal Bonds(40:31) The Mortgage-Backed Security (MBS) Market(48:12) If Something Breaks, What Will The Fed Do?(52:33) Questions From The Audience(55:29) Recession Risk and Inverted Yield Curves(59:05) Joseph Wang's Take On What Happened In The U.K. Gilt Market(1:02:38) Will Commercial Banks Lose Money?(1:04:21) Reverse Repo Facility(1:05:07) Titanic: Has The Fed Hit An Iceberg?(1:08:17) How High Will The Fed Hike To?(1:09:31) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset SummitGreg Steinmetz, investor and financial writer, joins Jack to share insights from his new book, American Rascal: How Jay Gould Built Wall Street’s Biggest Fortune. Steinmetz maps the financial skullduggery of Jay Gould, an infamous “robber baron” and investor whose market manipulations left an indelible mark on finance. Steinmetz tells Jack about Gould’s unscrupulous schemes in railroad stocks and gold, which destabilized the financial system and made him one of the most hated man in America. Invoking modern-day analogies such as Elon Musk and meme stocks, Steinmetz evaluates the legacy of America’s most daring and ruthless financier, and offers his view on what modern-day investors can learn from Gould’s life.--Follow Greg Steinmetz on TwitterFollow Jack Farley on Twitter Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter Follow Blockworks on TwitterGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily NewsletterMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter--(00:00) Introduction(00:16) Chapter: Why Jay Gould?(04:05) Gould's Greatest Misdeeds(07:10) Chapter: Cornering The Gold Market(14:18) Fragility of The Banking System During "Free Banking" Era(16:56) Gould's "Deposit Trick"(20:02) Tricks in the Gilded Age vs. Tricks in 2022(24:50) Jay Gould and the Media(27:29) Why Was Gould So Hated?(29:13) "Don't Fight the Fed"(33:48) The Railroad Business in the 19th Century(37:03) Investor Psychology(41:38) Lessons Learned From Jay Gould(45:01) Why Are There So Many Structurally Unprofitable Companies?(46:48) Gould and Valuation(49:59) Final Lessons From Gould's Legacy(52:46) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset SummitJim Bianco, founder of Bianco Research LLC, joins Jack Farley to explain how the meltdown in the British bond (“gilt”) market, which occurred on Wednesday, September 28th, is exposing serious cracks in the plumbing of the financial system. Bianco argues that the Bank of England’s injection of liquidity was necessary in order to prevent the failure of a major institution. Bianco tells Farley that the Federal Reserve is not close to “pivoting” to a looser policy because the labor market remains strong. Bianco breaks down key bond market concepts, such as convexity and duration, explains why we are likely already in a recession, and argues that the work-from-home trend is here to stay. Filmed on Thursday, September 29th.--Follow Jim BiancoFollow Jack FarleyFollow Forward GuidanceFollow Blockworks Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter--Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: https://bit.ly/3M1qNIU--(00:00) Introduction (00:30) Chaos In the U.K. Government Bond ("Gilt") Market(08:53) What's Next To Break?(15:41) What Can Bring Inflation Down (Other Than A Global Recession)?(19:18) The Stress On Banks Is Tremendous"(33:46) Are Bonds Attractive At These Levels?(36:56) Bianco's Outlook on Stocks(38:47) I’m Going To Channel My Inner Zoltan Pozsar Here"(51:05) Why Working From Home Is A Permanent Trend(57:09) Closing Thoughts On The Labor Market and The Fed(1:02:14) Asset Allocation in Stocks, Bonds, and Crypto(1:04:49) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/Rory Johnston, investor at Price street and author of Commodity Context, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the price of oil, the commodity at the heart of the turmoil in financial markets and the global economy. Johnston explains why he thinks oil will trade “flat to down” in the short-term as he notes that China’s zero-covid policy has sharply curtailed oil demand but that may change in 2023. He argues that the release of millions of barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the U.S.’ stockpile of emergency oil reserves, has drastically changed the supply dynamics and has likely depressed the price. Johnston also shares with Farley his views on other important drivers of oil market such as the proposed price cap, sanctions on Russian oil, and the response function from U.S. shale oil producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).NOTE: This interview was filmed on September 23rd, a day where the price of oil fell by as much as 7%.--Follow Rory Johnston on Twitter https://twitter.com/Rory_JohnstonFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:13) Why Is Oil Crashing?(05:41) Demand Destruction & Recession Risk(12:46) Is The Backwardation In Oil(16:44) Biden's Release of Strategic Petroleum Reserve(27:21) Price Cap On Russian Oil(36:18) The Gasoline Crisis(39:56) Coal(42:53) Volatility and Illiquidity In Oil Markets(46:57) European Electricity Prices(50:17) Natural Gas Unit Economics(54:02) The Mechanics Of A Price Cap on Russian Oil(1:02:18) U.S. Shale(1:11:49) Is Oil Going To Go Up?(1:14:21) How Would A Recession Impact The Price Of Oil?(1:16:35) About Commodity Context(1:18:43) Closing Thoughts On Twitter Sentiment(1:20:57) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the Fed hiking interest rates rapidly in order to fight inflation, cash is finally earning its highest yield since before the Great Financial Crisis. Peter Crane, President of Crane Data, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, join Jack to discuss how the growing attractiveness of cash might cause markets to “break” as investors pull capital out of risk assets and deploy it in cash and money market funds, which harvest yields on cash by investing them in ultra-short duration loans to extremely safe counterparties, primarily the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve. Filmed on September 22, 2022.--Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets to Blockworks’ London Digital Asset Summit: https://blockworks.co/events/digital-asset-summit-2022-london/--Follow Peter Crane on Twitter https://twitter.com/cranedataFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(02:10) Reflecting On the Fed's September FOMC Meeting(04:48) What Is A Money Market Fund?(14:37) What Will Break?(18:41) Maturity & Composition(25:31) Why Are There No Inflows Into Money Market Funds?(27:37) Quantitative Tightening (QT)(31:316) Who Invests In Money Market Funds?(39:19) Offshore Dollar Money Market Funds(43:03) New SEC Regulation on Money Market Funds ("Swing Pricing")(51:45) What Part of The Financial System Will Crack First?(1:05:12) How Bad Is Treasury Liquidity?(1:06:33) Pete Crane on Stablecoins(1:10:55) Joseph Wang On Sales of Mortgage-Backed Securities(1:12:16) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

When trying to find a culprit for the bear market in stocks this year, investors often point to the surging yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. But that’s only part of the story. Today Jack is lucky to speak to Dr. Aswath Damodaran, professor of valuation and corporate finance at NYU Stern School of Business, who is a pioneer in the field of valuation. Damodaran explains how the intrinsic value of a stocks is its future cash flows discounted back to the present with a “discount rate,” which is the sum of a risk-free rate on a Treasury bond and an “equity risk premium.” Damodaran notes that, in addition to risk-free rates surging higher, equity risk premia have expanded significantly. Damodaran also shares his views on inflation, the Federal Reserve, as well as currencies and crypto. Farley aFilmed on September 9, 2022.Data sets can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s website: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/Lectures and presentations can be found on Aswath Damodaran’s YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/c/AswathDamodaranonValuation--Follow Aswath Damodaran on Twitter https://twitter.com/AswathDamodaranFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/----(00:00) Introduction(00:35) The "Sleep Test"(03:40) Inflation's Impact on Equity Valuations(19:43) Equity Duration(40:41) Cost of Capital for Individual Companies(44:17) Commodity & Energy Stocks(52:06) How Liquidity Increases Asset Values(59:53) Crypto, Currencies, and Commodities: Why They Are Impossible To Truly Value(1:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Overconfidence--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.