Forward Guidance

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates.Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192--Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) What Is The Soft Landing?(04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low”(12:45) January Inflation Data(19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates?(24:50) Outlook for Stocks(29:02) Permissionless Plug(30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound(36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade(41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening?(45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys(51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates(01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now?Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve, shares his insight on why, despite the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) and rapid rate hikes, liquidity remains high. Kelly and Wang agree that the risk of a true financial crisis such as the one in 2008 is unlikely to occur, because as Kelly argues, banks have much more capital to endure losses.Filmed on February 13, 2023.--Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/forwardguidance*26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.**As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).--Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Steven Kelly on bank regulation: https://rb.gy/isdjlmJoseph Wang on QT https://rb.gy/fdwd5j--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) What Is A Financial Crisis?(05:14) "It's Really Hard To Find Capital In A Crisis"(08:16) Bank Capital Ratios(16:35) What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now?(22:06) The Federal Reserve As The Dealer Of Last Resort(27:20) Public Ad(28:28) Joseph Wang On The Fed During March 2020(34:25) Do Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening (QT) Increase Risk of Financial Crisis?(36:51) Why Is Liquidity Rising?(42:51) What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now?(46:36) "Everything Looks Fine"(50:49) Unrealized Losses on Bank Balance Sheets Due To Rate Hikes(54:05) Inverted Yield Curve(54:56) The Debt Ceiling(01:00:41) Is There A Limit To How High The Fed Can Hike?(01:03:36) Potential Risks In The Shadow Banking System(01:13:19) Inflation As A Financial Risk Itself--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the world’s leading expert on global liquidity, a key concept in finance that relates to the relative ease of financing in markets around the world.After previously calling in 2022 that a collapse in liquidity would usher in a bad year for risk assets, Howell returns to Forward Guidance with happier tidings. Howell now argues that global liquidity conditions reached a nadir in October 2022 and since then have been rising, in part due to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injecting trillions of Yuan into the Chinese financial system, as well as money market funds pulling cash from the Fed’s reverse repo (RRP) facility. Howell also shares with Forward Guidance listeners his thoughts on why the yield curve is sending a false signal, as well as on private credit creation and cross-border flows.--Follow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercapFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:40) Liquidity Is Rising - Why?(06:17) But What About Quantitative Tightening (QT)?(09:03) Treasury Market Liquidity & Bank Reserves(18:10) People's Bank of China Is Injecting Lots of Liquidity(25:48) Y2K Fed Comparison(30:50) Market Outlook for 2023(32:58) Curve Ad(35:12) Liquidity Outlook For Next Few Years(41:38) Inverted Yield Curve Could Be Sending False Signal(50:40) Are Rate Cuts Actually Coming?(59:40) Private Sector Liquidity & Cross-Border Flows(1:06:50) Consequences On Global Economy(1:13:01) Is Liquidity Resurgence Already Priced In?(1:17:48) "Rebound" Phase In Liquidity Cycle--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Neal Berger Founder, President and Chief Investment Officer of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show to discuss how he managed to correctly identify, and profit, from the 2022 bear market.After posting triple digit returns of 163% in 2022 (as reported by Bloomberg), Neal identified the sell off in stocks and bonds that would occur as central banks around the world tightened liquidity, in response to the record high inflation rates that shocked markets all around the world. In this interview, Neal walks through the market dynamics that allowed him to spot this trend reversal of the previous 10+ years. As central banks began tightening & reducing liquidity, Neal launched the contrarian macro fund in April 2021 and saw an opportunity that many overlooked. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(16:14) The Fed in 2022(21:52) "The Sell-Off Was Orderly"(24:02) Blockworks Research(25:36) The Summer Rally of July & August 2022(27:24) Thoughts On Current Rally(32:02) Rates & Stock Relationship(36:11) Permissionless Plug(37:14) The Labor Market Is Strong(40:31) Are Stocks Pricing In A Soft Landing?(44:23) Defining Liquidity(46:42) Which Is Neal Berger More Bearish On - Stocks Or Bonds?(48:43) Is This A Suckers' Rally?(50:53) IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER - DON'T TRY THIS AT HOME(51:46) Yield Curve View--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.Dominique Dwor-Frecaut's latest piece on Macro Hive Prime (moved in front of paywall for the benefit of Forward Guidance listeners): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/fed-review-a-bullish-meeting-for-equities/Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Come Hell Or High Water”: https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/--Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_HiveFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://www.macrohive.com/jack or use promotional code JACK at checkout at https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308. Offer ends February 20, 2023. --Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:05) February Fed Meeting Debrief(04:28) The (Bond) Market Is Wrong(07:11) Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"(01:03) Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go(15:46) Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case(28:06) Curve Ad(29:10) Why Is Inflation Falling?(36:57) Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?(46:34) The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime(57:40) Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"(01:07:17) Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate(01:10:40) How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?(01:14:45) Higher For Longer!--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Roger Hirst, managing editor at Real Vision Creative Studios and macro editor at Lykeion Research, joins Forward Guidance to share his macro outlook for 2023. Hirst tackles the ongoing fight in the bond market over the degree to which central banks - namely, The Bank of England, The Federal Reserve, and The European Central Bank - can keep interest rates at restrictive levels before being forced to “pivot” and cut rates. Hirst also shares his view on China, silver, and the labor market.Lykeion Research https://www.thelykeion.com/research/For more information about Real Vision Creative Studios, email customvideos@realvision.comThis episode is sponsored by Public.com. Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance to move your cash into a Treasury Account today.___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(04:31) Disconnect Between Central Banks And Markets(11:29) The Labor Market Is Tight But Not Strong"(14:36) Fighting Against The "Doomsday Scenario"(20:57) Base Case For 2023(24:09) Is Refinancing Risk Delayed?(29:40) Soft Landing Won't Happen But Plane Will Be Circling The Airport For Long Time(33:43) Public Ad(35:49) Controlled Explosions In China"(41:52) The Merging of Geopolitics and Macro(46:48) The Debt Supercycle(49:53) Actionable Trade Ideas: Copper, Silver, and Calls(56:23) Bonds and Oil(01:04:51) Private Equity(01:09:26) Recession Type and Length(01:15:59) The Power Of Changing Your Mind

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show alongside Mike Ippolito of On The Margin for a discussion on Powell's press conference on Wednesday 1st February.Markets started the new year with a strong rally seeing gains of around 7% in the S&P 500. Many anticipated a hawkish press conference from Jerome Powell in a bid to tighten financial conditions and try ease some of the "animal spirits" that we saw throughout 2021. Jim makes just that comparison. "This market is showing signs of 2021" with the most speculative and highest beta names rallying the most. We walk through Powell's comments in the press conference after raising rates 25 basis points and what the path ahead will mean for markets, the economy and most importantly inflation.--Follow Jim: https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the February Fed meeting rapidly approaching, Jack Farley welcomes Colby Smith, U.S. economics editor for the Financial Times (FT), to share her expectations for the February meeting, and her insights about the transmission of the Fed’s policy to the market and the public. She argues that the disconnect between the rate cuts being priced into the interest rate futures market and the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts will be one of the most salient issues at tomorrow’s press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell. Smith and Farley also discuss the latest economic data, the politics of the Fed, and the looming issue of the U.S. debt ceiling.Follow Colby Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/colbyLsmithFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.--Timestamps:(00:41) Expectations For The Fed's February FOMC Meeting(09:24) Are Financial Conditions Too Loose?(18:26) "The Fed's Threshold For Pain Is A Lot Higher"(25:48) Forward Guidance(30:55) Curve Ad(32:00) Employment Costs & Other Economic Data(37:09) Will The Fed Hike Again In May (After It Likely Hikes Again in March)?(40:12) New Voting Members on The FOMC(43:26) Will Powell Be In "Attack Mode" Tomorrow?(47:49) The Fed's Balance Sheet & Quantitative Tightening (QT)(51:14) The Debt Ceiling(53:34) The Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility

Sam Burns, founder of Mill Street Research, explains why he thinks the bull market in stocks can last for much longer. He notes that many companies are still growing their earnings substantially despite inflation and economic uncertainty, and argues that the outperformance of cyclical stocks over defensive stocks is an indicator that the bull market in stocks has legs. Filmed on January 26, 2023.Follow Mill Street Research on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MillStResearchFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:35) Outlook for 2023(06:00) Cyclical Stocks Are Outperforming Defensive Stocks(11:37) Stocks vs. Bonds Valuations(17:17) Earnings Growth Outlook for S&P 500 Stocks(20:46) Incentives of Sell-Side Analysts(28:35) Earnings Revisions By Sector(31:30) Permissionless Plug(32:33) China, Gold Miners, and Airlines(37:06) European Stocks(43:35) What Is Sam Most Bearish On?(45:53) The Fed(55:40) Inverted Yield Curve

Milton Berg is a quiet legend of technical analysis whose work is regularly used by the world’s most accomplished investors. He joins Jack Farley to share his reading of specific patterns in the market that to him are strong bullish indicators. Berg argues that the recession already occurred in 2022 and that the best time to buy stocks is coming out a recession. Berg shares with Farley in-depth analysis of the breadth and volume characteristics of recent price action that make him think that the bear market is over. Berg is particularly constructive on China and gold miners, and in addition he and Farley debate the meaning of the steep yield curve inversion.Milton Berg Advisors is a boutique consulting and research firm that offers investment advisory services exclusively to institutional investors. More info can be found at https://miltonberg.com/.Follow Milton Berg on Twitter https://twitter.com/BergMiltonFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:34) Milton Berg's Way Of Analyzing Markets(09:31) A Transition From Inflation To Recession Is Bullish For Stocks(12:13) Comparison To Dot-Com Crash(17:24) "The Market Bottomed In June"(21:12) Bullish On Chinese & U.S. Stocks(29:37) Permissionless Plug(30:39) But What About Bear Market Rallies?(42:58) "I Have Zero Sell Signals"(45:08) But What About The Inverted Yield Curve?(47:44) The Unemployment Rate(56:53) China Stocks and Gold(01:04:44) Milton Berg's Outlook on Treasury Bonds__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.