Forward Guidance

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/.Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co.--Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market(05:08) The U.S. Auto Market(13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next?(24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market(30:30) Tesla(33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream?(45:23) Europe's Auto Market(51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles(01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers(01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance(01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book “The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global.” Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of “risk-free” trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by “yes men,” and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global).Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much “worse” than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jack’s reading that FTX likely misused (or at least “mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (“repo”) markets in 2022, as well as the Fed’s dilemma between price stability and financial stability.Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrmFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global?(02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008(11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds?(20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX(23:29) Cross-Margining(32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades(40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades(43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM(47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate(53:59) The Fed's Dilemma(58:51) The Repo Market in 2022__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX.James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud.He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James’ writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/James’ piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolventJames’ piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift__Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburgFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:45) "Is Alameda Research Insolvent?"(03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius(12:35) Binance(15:01) Crypto Contagion(19:13) Curve Ad(20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis(35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From?(40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With?(45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop?__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner at JST Capital, a financial services firm focused 100% on digital assets, joins Jack to explain just what the hell is going on in crypto after the spectacular collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s (“SBF”) crypto empire, consisting of the crypto exchange FTX and the hedge fund Alameda Research. Freeman tells Jack that he judges the state of the crypto market using three key factors: liquidity, leverage, and volatility. Liquidity falls after big market events, so liquidity is poor and might even get worse in the short-term. Freeman argues that volatility might fall, however, as leverage is wrung from the system, and he also shares his fall on the crypto lender Genesis, whose fate hangs in the balance, as well as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC), which is owned by the same parent company, Digital Currency Group (DCG). This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 22nd, 2022. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:35) Scott Freeman's Background(04:27) Early Trading in Crypto in 2014 and 2015(09:06) Crypto in 2020(12:01) Crypto Liquidity Has Declined In 2022(15:25) Leverage, Futures, and Options in Crypto(19:23) Where Does Yield Come From?(20:42) Was the Fall of Celsius Surprising?(22:07) Algorand Ad(23:52) Alameda & FTX(29:41) The Myth of Sam Bankman-Fried(34:58) Credit Risk on CeFi Crypto Exchanges(39:06) Cold Storage and Decentralized Exchanges ("DEX"es)(40:13) General Market Outlook(42:30) Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC)(49:07) Is There A Silver Lining?__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, joins Jack for a wide-ranging discussion on central banks, derivatives, and market structure. Hari shares his knowledge on everything from interest rate swaps to the demise of FTX, and he argues that short-expiry options are structurally cheaper than options with longer-dated tenors. Lastly, Hari and Jack exchange thoughts on what it means to attain true expertise in a specific market discipline. Follow Hari Krishnan on Twitter https://twitter.com/HariPKrishnan2Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjHari Krishnan’s book, “Market Tremors”: https://rb.gy/4l3yhj--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://fgpodcast.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:24) “Dominant Agents" In Finance(04:49) Are Central Banks Really That Powerful?(13:26) The Shadow Banking System(17:28) The Effect Of Interest Rate Changes By Central Banks(19:12) Curve Ad(25:05) Why Are Swap Spreads Negative?(27:16) Crypto Contagion & The Fall of FTX(38:56) Leverage Within Crypto(42:45) Anti-hedging In Bitcoin Miners(44:36) Volatility In 2022(58:08) The Next Phase Of This Bear Market(01:04:27) The Role Of Macro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability.William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Academic papers referenced:"Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah"Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8"Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikqWilliam White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling:https://rb.gy/robwk2--Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:09) Looking Back At 2022(04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions(11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error"(23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models?(25:25) Algorand Ad(27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do?(40:43) The Debt Trap(46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake?(54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap(58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money(01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here(01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Zed Francis, chief investment officer at Convexitas, joins Jack to talk about interest rate risk, what really happened to the British pension system, and tail risk as a portfolio diversifier. Francis argues that December 2022 will see a wave of mandatory liquidations by the U.S. retirees forced to take mandatory distributions on their retirement accounts. These forced sales will be larger as a percentage of the typical 60/40 portfolio than they normally are, due to the drawdown in stocks and bonds that have already occurred this year. Filmed on November 8, 2022.--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjAbout Convexitas: https://www.convexitas.com/Convexitas’ piece on Liability-Driven Investment (LDI): https://www.convexitas.com/insights/liability-driven-investment-de-risking-if/Convexitas’ piece on duration risk: https://www.convexitas.com/insights/rates-free-risk-duration-duration-everywhere/__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:33) The Financialization Of Everything(10:27) Private Markets(17:01) Duration (Interest Rate Risk) Explained(19:35) The Losses From Rising Rates Are Immense(26:26) The U.K. Pensions Crisis - Explained In Great Detail(38:41) Stocks and Volatility(41:53) "Ignore The VIX"(45:19) Tail Risk(50:47) Are Active Investment Managers Underweight Stocks?(01:00:07) The Different Phases of A Bear Market(01:07:46) The Credit Markets Are Frozen(01:10:21) A "Waterfall of Liquidations" Is Coming From Forced Selling From Retirement Accounts(01:19:45) The Value Of Portfolio Overlays(01:26:00) Basis Risk__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike McGlone, macro strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins Jack to share his outlook on how commodities, bonds, and crypto will perform during this period of economic turbulence wherein some form of global recession is predicted by most mainstream economists. McGlone argues that the price of oil remains too high to allow for economic growth, and that the pending economic slowdown is destroying demand and will continue to do so.NOTE: This interview was filmed the afternoon of November 8th, 2022, a time at which the extent of crypto exchange FTX’s distress was still being discovered, and when it still looked like Binance would acquire FTX. Follow Mike McGlone on Twitter https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:15) We're Going Down"(05:28) FTX's Implosion Causing Cascades Within And Beyond Crypto(07:43) McGlone's Bearish Case For Crude Oil(11:57) Have Interest Rates Peaked?(22:00) Have We Reached Peak Oil Demand?(26:04) Is ESG Making The Oil Supply Curve Less Elastic?(29:42) Forward Curve In Oil(38:29) China Is In A Severe Recession(47:56) Why Is Liquidity So Poor In Paper Oil?(50:12) Bitcoin and Inflation(55:39 Does FTX's Fall Change The Regulatory Approach Towards Crypto?__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.This is a deleted scene from an interview that Jack did with Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital, which originally aired on October 18, 2022. Link to the original interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRiDkbNl-6g--Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppyFollow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SeawolfcapFollow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COMFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceMore info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/--Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.com or jack@blockworks.co--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

In an emergency episode, Jack speaks to one of the sharpest crypto minds he knows, Matt Fiebach, research analyst on the Blockworks Research team, about the turmoil engulfing FTX, a digital asset exchange that up until very recently was considered one of the safest and most blue chip exchanges.Matt breaks down the collapse in confidence that led to FTX Token falling 80% over the course of one day, and FTX’s rumored acquisition by Binance, a digital asset behemoth led by Chengpeng Zhao (“CZ”) that, should the acquisition close, would become the undisputed king of all crypto exchange. Matt and Farley consider financial contagion risk within crypto as well as in the broader traditional finance (“tradfi”) world.__Follow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksresFollow Matt Fiebach on Twitter https://twitter.com/MattFiebachFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:54) Overview of FTX's Problems(02:49) Alameda Research's Balance Sheet(09:09) FTX As A Big Blue-Chip Player In Crypto(13:16) Possible Outcomes(16:31) Was FTX Investing Customer Assets?(20:25) Risk Of Contagion(27:48) Matt Fiebach's Background(30:42) About Blockworks Research(31:49) Closing Thoughts__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.