Forward Guidance

Interest rates are a key measure of the price of money, but as the plural suggests, there is one more than just one interest rate. Today Jack dives deep into the interest rate structure with whiz kid Kemen Linsuain, known commonly as DC Analyst, who knows a thing or two about the many different kinds of risk-free rates that punctuate the financial system. Kemen tells of the Federal Funds rate, which is the nominal overnight rate that the Federal Reserve controls, to other rates within the Fed’s remit such as the interest on reserve balances (IORB) and the reverse repo rate (RRP). Kemen and Jack then discuss overnight interest rates not within the Fed’s control such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR), and then other rates and derivatives such as Treasury bill futures and swap rates. Note: the vast majority of rates discussed in this conversation are short-term rates with minimal amounts of credit risk, and should not be confused with corporate bond yield, mortgage rates, or commercial banking rates. Lastly, Kemen shares his thoughts on crypto, and tells Jack about his latest venture into crypto as a content creator at Gauntlet. --About Gauntlet: https://gauntlet.network/DC Analyst blog: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/Latest chartback from DC Analyst: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-17Follow Kemen on Twitter https://twitter.com/AnalystDCFollow Gauntlet on Twitter https://twitter.com/gauntletnetworkFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:08) Interest Rate Mayhem in 2022(14:19) Repo Markets(21:08) Curve Ad(22:14) Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)(37:03) Interest Rate Derivatives Market(41:39) LIBOR to SOFR Transition(50:14) Spread Between EFFR & SOFR (Effective Fed Funds Rate & Secured Overnight Financing Rate)(55:26) Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) and Forward Rate Agreements (FRA)(56:50) Negative Swap Spreads(59:48) Term Premium(01:02:12) Thoughts On The Fed(01:06:53) Crypto & DeFi(01:13:34) Where Did The (Crypto) Yield Come From?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes George Goncalves and Joseph Wang to share their 2023 outlook on the Federal Reserve and inflation. Goncalves, Head of U.S. Macro Strategy at MUFG Securities, argues that inflation is slowing rapidly and the Federal Reserve is nearly done with raising interest rates. Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, contends that 2023 will be the year that “transitory will die” and that the Federal Reserve will tighten as far as it can as inflation stays high. Wang and Goncalves also discuss the housing market, quantitative tightening, yield curve inversions, and their outlook on risk assets.--Follow George Goncalves on Twitter: https://twitter.com/bondstrategistFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:59) A 2023 Global Macro Outlook(09:33) The Tightening of Financial Conditions(13:37 Forecasting The Fed Terminal Rate Into 2023(20:33) Curve Ad(21:36) A Classic Boom/Bust Cycle?(29:12) Lagarde Is Undoubtedly Hawkish(31:26) Should We Listen To The Fed's Forward Guidance?(36:58) The Cycle of Financial Conditions(47:19) Stocks, Bonds & The Wealth Effect(49:54) 2023 Outlook For Risk Asset's(56:37) Analysing The Effects Of Quantitative Tightening(01:03:12) George & Joseph's Final Thoughts & Outlook For 2023(01:12:00) The Outlook For Bonds Throughout 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins today’s interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto.--To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022.Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/--Follow Bilal Hafeez on Twitter https://twitter.com/bilalhafeez123Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_HiveFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023(05:32) Severe Recession Incoming(10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023(22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain(25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace(31:16) China(38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess?(42:08) Bond Market Outlook(49:39) Energy(54:21) Is Europe In A Recession?(55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates?(57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime(01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar(01:09:59) Crypto--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there’s no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado.Weston tells Jack that the BOJ’s decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year.Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022.Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022.--Follow Katie Stockton on Twitter https://twitter.com/StocktonKatieFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki__This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.__Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA)(05:30) Support And Resistance(11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions(24:02) Curve Ad(25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer(33:02) Outlook on S&P 500(35:36) Outlook on Oil(44:48) Gold(46:47) Treasury Yields(50:24) Sector Analysis(54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is something unlike any other that’s ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can China’s economy emerge stronger than ever? Let’s just say that today’s guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners.An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.--Follow Kyle Bass on Twitter https://twitter.com/JkylebassFollow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsmanFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:06) Kyle Bass’ 2023 Macro Outlook(04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices?(13:10) China's Economy(23:00) The Chinese Communist Party(28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate?(43:57) Russia and Putin(48:42) Uranium and the Fed(52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of November’s inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12.__Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting(04:37) The Dot Plot(13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot?(17:42) The Job Market(24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be?(30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT)(40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse(45:40) Recession(48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling(51:33) Can Services Save Us?

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this “pivot” will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that China’s growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change(05:51) Stock Market Outlook(9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China(18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading(19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy(22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak?(24:09) The U.S. Dollar(26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds(35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023(39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market(45:12) Crypto--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, “How To Invest: Masters On The Craft,” in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success. Link to David Rubenstein’s book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302Link to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601sLink to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s--Follow David Rubenstein on Twitter https://twitter.com/DM_RubensteinFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:25) What Makes A Great Investor?(04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity(09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor(11:42) Fundraising(19:22) Inflation(21:05) The Business Cycle(24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations(27:36) Economic Outlook(29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority.Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022.--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation(02:39) The Housing Market Recession(05:33) The Auto Market(08:05) General Investment Outlook(10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks(13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks(14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook(16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish?(19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)?(22:19) Curve Ad(23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates?(27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds(28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022(33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys(34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks(36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023?(42:56) Energy(44:32) About Oxbow--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.