Forward Guidance

Shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference on November 2nd, 2022, Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, join Jack Farley to share their thoughts from the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://www.decipherevent.com___Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:42) General Thoughts on The November FOMC Meeting(04:48) New Sentence On Monetary Policy Acting With A Leg(12:57) Strong Labor Market(19:44) Why Should The Fed Not Hike By 75 Basis Points in December?(23:29) Powell's Yield Curve Is About To Invert(31:05) Is A Soft Landing Still Possible?(43:38) A Treasury Buyback Program Is NOT Coming to Rescue The Bond Market (At Least In 2022)(51:42) A Financial Accident Is Getting More And More Likely__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With the Fed set to hike interest rates yet again, Jack is lucky to speak to the ultimate Federal Reserve heavyweights: Nick Timiraos, chief economics corresopndent for The Wall Street Journal, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed. Timiraos and Wang share what they will be watching for in the Powell presser on November 2nd, 2022, and discuss how resilient consumer balance sheets are making the Fed’s job even harder. Timiraos Wang argues that Treasury buyback program would be effective in improving liquidity in U.S. government bonds, which is currently very weak, and Timiraos shares how he goes about picking a question to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Filmed on November 1, 2022, the first day of the meeting of the November Federal Open Market Committee. Stay tuned for an upcoming interview with Joseph Wang and Jim Bianco, which will be filmed after the Powell presser on November 2nd. ______Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraosFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj______Joseph Wang’s book, “Central Banking 101”: https://www.amazon.com/Central-Banking-101-Joseph-Wang/dp/0999136747Nick Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage: How Jay Powell And The Fed Battled A President And A Pandemic – And Prevented Economic Disaster”: https://www.littlebrown.com/titles/nick-timiraos/trillion-dollar-triage/9780316272810/Nick Timiraos’ article: “Fed Meeting to Focus on Interest Rates’ Coming Path”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-meeting-to-focus-on-interest-rates-coming-path-11667295181Nick Timiraos’ article: “Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cash-rich-consumers-could-mean-higher-interest-rates-for-longer-11667075614Joseph’s Wang piece, “The Money Still Flows”: https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/Joseph Wang’s piece on Treasury Buybacks (“Quantitative Buybacks”): https://fedguy.com/quantitative-buybacks/______Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/______Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:07) What To Look For In November FOMC Meeting(11:06) The Consumer Balance Sheet Is Strong(19:45) The Fed's Balance Sheet(28:45 )Treasury Liquidity Is Very Weak"(31:20) A Potential Treasury Buyback(31:51) Will The Fed Adjust Its Inflation Target?(46:37) Could The Fed Go From A 50 Basis Point Hike To A Halt In Hiking Rates?(49:36) Asking A Question To Jerome Powell(56:43 )Is The Drain on Banking Reserves Going To Force The Fed To Stop Reducing Its Balance Sheet?Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.______

Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, has been extremely prescient in calling for persistently high inflation. Vincent returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he thinks that inflation will remain close to the 5-7% range over the next decade, due to inflationary demographics, the reversal of globalization, regular energy crises, and declining immigration.Deluard proposes a “holy Trinity” portfolio consisting of energy companies (which benefit from inflation), banks (which benefit from rising rates), and healthcare companies (which perform during a recession and which offer secular growth exposure at much cheaper valuations to the technology sector). Filmed on October 25, 2022.__Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluardFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(08:49) How Aging Demographics Can Actually Be Inflationary(17:34) The Fed's 2% Inflation Target Is Transitory(27:22) Wealth Inequality & Financial Repression(39:29) Stocks Will Perform Poorly(46:38) Would A Fed Pivot Really Be Bullish For Stocks?(51:15) Why Won't The Recession Be Deep?(57:20) The Holy Trinity Portfolio ($XLV, $XLE, and $XLF)(01:02:51) Energy(01:11:09) Chaos In The Sovereign Bond Market(01:14:44) Brazil and Gold(01:16:40) Favorite BooksDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.___

Jack welcomes Sam Martin and Dan Smith, analysts on the Blockworks Research team and hosts of the upcoming podcast 0xResearch, which airs on November 2nd, 2022. Sam and Dan educate Jack about the latest developments in Ethereum, Cosmos, Bitcoin, Convex Finance, and Polygon, and Jack shares his own views about how a Fed “pivot” might impact asset prices.Filmed on October 26, 2022.Follow Sam Martin on Twitter https://twitter.com/swmartin19Follow Dan Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/smyyguyFollow Blockworks Research on Twitter https://twitter.com/blockworksresFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjSign up for the Research daily newsletter here: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily-debrief-by-blockworks-research/--Timestamps;(00:00) Intro(00:25) Macro and Crypto(03:10) Navigating A Crypto Bear Market(10:48) Ethereum Supply Curve(28:18) About The 0xResearch Podcast(30:14) Zero Knowledge Roll-ups(36:37) Ethereum & Cosmos(44:55) Bitcoin(52:30) Jack Answers Macro Questions

Daniel Neilson, economist and author of “Minksy” and the Soon Parted newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update Jack on the European Central Bank’s efforts to control inflation by raising interest rates to the highest level in over a decade. Neilson also shares his views on how the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar is creating financial instability around the world, and why the Federal Reserve might need to extend support to other central banks.Neilson's article, "Dear Dollar," can be found here: https://www.soonparted.co/p/dear-dollarFollow Daniel Neilson on Twitter https://twitter.com/dhneilsonFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj_Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code. _Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In October 2021, Lyn Alden, renowned macroeconomic thinker and investor, joined Forward Guidance for its first episode to argue that the sovereign bond market was vulnerable to inflationary pressures.1 year later, with investors having dumped many trillions worth of government bonds, Alden returns to share her thinking on the long-term debt cycle, the energy markets, and what she sees as growing pressures for central banks to reliquify their beleaguered bond markets.Filmed on October 20th, 2022.Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off: https://fgpodcast.link/algorand--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(19:54) What Will Cause The Fed To Pivot?(26:21) The Treasury Market Is Not In Full Panic Mode Yet(33:45) Recession Risk(35:24) Asset Allocation(38:26) The Dollar and Emerging Markets(45:45) Energy(53:49) When Will The Dollar Stop Rising?(01:01:54) The Long-Term Debt Cycle--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to ring the alarm bell about the housing and auto markets, which by her reading of the data are quickly deteriorating. Booth notes that while the credit quality of mortgages remain high, the mortgage origination market itself falling sharply and, because of a “biblical” quantity of single-family houses about to hit the market, Booth expects housing prices to continue to fall. Booth argues that the car loan market is in even worse condition, as car note defaults mount, the car values plummet and the jubilee-like monetary conditions of 2020 and 2021 wither away. Booth’s description of the car loan market reminds Farley of his reading of the subprime housing meltdown in 2007. Booth and Farley also discuss Bernanke’s Nobel Prize and the means and timing of a Powell pivot.__Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusosFind out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:21) The Housing Recession(09:39) The Brewing Auto Loan Wreck(19:06) Is The Auto Loan Crisis Systemic?(23:14) Sponsor ad Bitrex(24:42) The "Winter" In Investment Banking(26:38) The Fed Is Not Coming To The Rescue(31:31) The Recession Started In January 2022"(43:26) Will The Fed Bail Out The Treasury Market?(48:37) The Bernanke Doctrine Is Failing(51:10) Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize: "The Prize Was Premature"(53:57) Is Jay Powell Making The Right Move?(58:38) Closing Thoughts On The Midterms In The U.S.--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Richard Field, director of The Institute For Financial Transparency, joins Jack Farley to argue that the Federal Reserve made a huge mistake during the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 and is making another one now. Field tells Jack he thinks that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke ought not to have bailed out the major investment banks, but rather should have let banks to realize the full extent of their losses and let the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shut down insolvent institutions and re-open them as entirely new banks. Field also tells Farley why he thinks the Fed’s current tightening of monetary policy is a mistake.--Follow Richard Field on Twitter https://twitter.com/tyillcFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___--Join Kraken, Binance, Arrington Capital, and 2000 others in heading to Dubai this fall for Algorand's DECIPHER conference, happening November 28-30. Tickets are available now -- use code DecipherFam22 for 25% off:  https://fgpodcast.link/algorand--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “Algorand Promotion”(00:20) Chapter: Ben Bernanke's Nobel Prize(04:34) Was Bailing Out The Banks In 2008 A Mistake?(14:16) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?(28:02) “Algorand Promotion”(29:47) Would FDIC Insurance Have Protected Depositors If The Banks Didn't Get Bailed Out?(30:39) Were Zero Rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) A Mistake?(37:03) "Insolvent Banks Can Still Lend," Says Richard Field(52:02) "We're Headed For Deflation"(54:37) If Hiking Rates Doesn't Curb Inflation, Why Do It?(57:01) Just How Weak Is The Housing Market?(01:18:05) Are The Major U.S. Banks Insolvent?(01:27:56) "The Financial System Now Is More Opaque Than Pre-2008"(01:37:34) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack welcomes two investors who have navigated the turbulent markets over the past two years very well: Porter Collins of Seawolf Capital and Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman of Praetorian Capital and Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM). Kuppy explains why the Fed’s job is tough and will only get tougher if the price of oil surges once again. Porter and Kuppy tell Jack why they are very bullish on oil, coal, and uranium as an energy crisis threatens to tip the world into recession, and they discuss some individual companies that each of them thinks can benefit from this strange macro environment.Link to 4-week free trial for Kuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://link.kedm.com/forward. Use special coupon code kedm1ref to get $1,000 off your first year’s subscription. NOTE: to get $1,000 off, you must use the link AND the coupon code.--Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppyFollow Porter Collins on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SeawolfcapFollow KEDM on Twitter: https://twitter.com/KEDM_COMFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceMore info about Praetorian Capital can be found here: https://www.pracap.com/Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “KEDM promotion”(00:51) Intro(01:07) Overall Macro Thesis(11:22) Is The Fed Still Behind The Curve?(16:06) The Bull Case For Oil(22:57) The Sovereign Bond Bubble Is Bursting(30:28) "The Dollar's Strength Will Be Proven Wrong"(35:06) Shorting Stocks In This Macro Environment(40:16) Coal, Nuclear, Natural Gas, and Oil(55:51) Outlooks on Risk Assets and Earnings Season(1:02:41) A Market Crash(1:04:37) Special Info About Kuppy's Event Driven Monitor (KEDM)(1:11:19) “KEDM promotion”(1:12:16) Outro--Disclosure: KEDM is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to KEDM using discount code kedm1ref. For any questions, email info@kedm.comDisclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

It’s banking season. With the big U.S. banks set to report their third quarter earnings, Jack speaks to veteran banker Chris Whalen about what investors should be looking for. Whalen, author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, argues that while some lines of business, such as investment banking and mortgage origination, have slowed rapidly, the core business of banking (taking in deposits and making loans) is stronger than its been since before 2020, because interest rates are significantly higher and banks can now make money on their loans.That being said, problems abound. Many small banks, Whalen argues, would be rendered insolvent if forced to sell their mortgage-backed securities (MBS), because the surge in interest rates has caused their market value to plunge. To hear Whalen’s unabridged thoughts on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, Bank of America, and more, you’ll have to listen to the whole interview! Filmed on Friday, October 14.--Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://rb.gy/enkm0eFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Founded in 2014 by three cybersecurity engineers, Bittrex is a world-class cryptocurrency exchange with a focus on security and trust. Trade over 150 cryptocurrencies in the United States along with lightning-fast trade execution and dependable digital wallets, all protected by industry-leading security practices. Discover why Bittrex is the best kept secret in crypto trading. Open your account today at: http://fgpodcast.link/bittrex--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--(00:00) “Bittrex Ad”(00:10) Intro(00:57) Overall Outlook on U.S. Banks(03:27) "The Party In Investment Banking Is Over"(07:03) Loans Are Going Up, Deposits Are Going Down (The Opposite of Post-GFC Trend)(09:17) Jamie Dimon's Recession Warning(12:35) Where Will The Credit Losses Be?(16:49) Cost Of Funds As A Threat To Banking Business(21:23) Quantitative Tightening (QT)(23:18) “Bittrex Ad”(23:49) Winter For Investment Banking(27:48) The Biggest Risks(30:40) Interest Rate Risks As A Systemic Threat(35:53) Huge Losses In Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)(38:39) Can Banks Hide The Losses?(47:49) Bank of The Ozarks and Bank of America(55:00) How Can Banks Do Well In A Recession?(58:09) FinTech(59:30) Credit Suisse ($CS)(01:01:51) Outro--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.