An oft-cited fact is that rising rates support the profitability of the commercial banking system. Chris Whalen, veteran banker, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors & Author of The Institutional Risk Analyst begs to differ. Whalen explains to Farley that banks make money by the spread between their yield on their loans and their cost of funds, and that while rising rates do increase loan yields, they also increase banks’ cost of funds. Whalen also explains why he thinks the Federal Reserve will be unable to do Quantitative Tightening because it will be stuck with mortgage-backed securities (MBS) for many years.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(12:35) Inflation(18:13) The Problem The Fed Faces with Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)(21:08) Can the Federal Reserve Become Insolvent?(24:57) Mortgage Lending At Commercial Banks27(27:32) BCB Ad(28:20) Are Rising Rates Good For Banks?(31:54) Why A Recession Is Likely?(34:51) Outlook on Bank Stocks and U.S. Treasuries(44:00) Biggest Risk: Non-Bank Lenders(48:31) Credit Card Lending(51:16) Will Banks Suffer Losses from Russia's Invasion of Ukraine?(54:40) European Banks(58:35) Jack's Post-Conversation Explanation

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro research at Fidelity, joins Forward Guidance to explain his outlook of the current macro environment marked by slowing rates of growth and inflation coming down from high levels as central banks scramble to tighten monetary conditions. Timmer notes that while risk-free rates (as measured by Treasury yields) have risen sharply, risk premia as measured by credit spreads - and, in particular, the earnings yield of stocks - have barely budged.Timmer shares his outlook on bonds, commodities, equities at this point in the economic cycle, and he explains his long-term bull case for Bitcoin, as well as why one of his models indicates gold is severely undervalued (not investment advice). Nothing Timmer or Farley say is investment advice.Follow Jurrien Timmer on Twitter @TimmerFidelityFollow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_____Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter--(00:00) Introduction(06:08) Where Are We In The Cycle Now?(12:40) Slaying The Inflation Dragon(21:29) The Stock Market(30:22) Bit.com Ad(31:00) Commodities(36:25) Gold(44:24) Will The Fed Reverse on Quantitative Tightening (QT)?(56:48) Japanification & Yield Curve Control(1:06:18) Bitcoin

Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and George Goncalves to discuss the bond market, plumbing, inflation & more.--Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12Follow George Goncalves @bondstrategistFollow @Blockworks_If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Roger Lowenstein to discuss his new books and the intricacies of the American financial institution during and before the Civil War. Taking a look back at history, Roger is able to make connections to our modern day and how we can empower ourselves by knowing our backstory.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter--Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(02:27) American Finance Before the Civil War(06:46) How Did the North Fund the Civil War?(15:25) How the South Funded The Civil War?(18:56) Disastrous Inflation In The South(24:02) BCB Ad(25:25) Illegal Cotton Smuggling And Parallels To Russian Gas(34:20) Will Commodity Price Shock Cause A Recession?(37:36) Inflation(42:28) The Fed(47:03) Final Reflection on President Lincoln

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Lukas Kuemmerle joins Jack Farley to talk his commodity plan and interests in 2022. As someone interested not only in the strategy, but background of commodities, Lukas provides a comprehensive explanation of each of his commodity interests, discusses the current situation in Germany, and makes a case for his bullishness on Bitcoin.--(00:00) Introduction(02:05) Background and Framework(05:01) Commodity Overview(11:00) Oil & Natural Gas(23:54) Inflation Amid Russia's Invasion of Ukraine(26:15) Why Lukas Got Short-Term Skeptical of Commodity Prices In March(31:07) Backwardation & Contango(34:30) Bearish On Soybeans(39:26) Wheat(41:08) Shipping(46:08) Bearish Copper(48:50) Dollar Strength(50:32) Germany(55:40) Bitcoin

Blockworks' Jack Farley, Host of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang to discuss Zoltan Pozsar's recent Global Money Dispatch titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'.Read Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III here: https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V--Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12Follow @Blockworks_If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Paul Hodges of New Normal Consulting & writer of the pH report. By using leading indicators, Paul predicts cyclical changes in the economic cycle months ahead of most. After correctly calling for inflation in 2021, Paul now warns of an inflationary recession throughout 2022 & runs through the characteristics of this recessionary cycle.Paul goes on to discuss the effect of energy market disruptions in Europe, what this will mean for green energy over the next decade & beyond, how to invest in this environment & potential trouble in the CLO market whilst most investors are distracted by the current news cycle.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletterTimestamps(00:00) Introduction(02:17) Forecasting Inflation In 2021(03:57) Forecasting A Recession(08:15) Energy's Effect On Inflation(14:04) Natural Gas Disruption in Europe(16:42) Oil Market Outlook(19:50) A Historical Reversal In German Policy(25:12) BCB Group Ad(26:00) Can Europe Cut Reliance On Russian Energy?(39:20) Forecasting A Recession Using Oil(41:55) We Are In A Deflationary World(57:45) Trouble In The CLO Market(1:01:04) Investment Opportunities For The Next Decade & Beyond

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Kris Sidial, Co-CIO of the Ambrus Group, a volatility arbitrage focused firm founded in 2020. After noticing how the micro structure of markets had changed due to passive investing, buy side flows, primary dealer hedging post 2008 & ever increasing amounts of QE by the Fed, Kris founded Ambrus Group to take advantage of periods of increased volatility.Kris takes us all the back to March 2020, discussing the market mechanics which led to such a rapid sell-off. Now in 2022, as markets face increasingly uncertain headlines & the Fed begins tightening, Kris gives his outlook for 2022, sharing his key indicators to look out for, to avoid your portfolio being hit by volmageddon 2.0.--Follow Follow Kris Sidial: @KsidiiiFollow Jack Farley: @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_Barclays' VXX price jump drives double-digit gains for volatility arbitrage fund: https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/barclays-vxx-price-jump-drives-double-digit-gains-volatility-arbitrage-fund-2022-03-16/--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcomes returning guest, Darius Dale of 42Macro. Darius sits down to discuss the current macro environment from recession warning signals on the horizon, stock & bond correlations during market sell-off's, the outlook for commodities in this environment, ARKK & other high beta assets and the mechanics driving inflation & the yield curve.42Macro website: https://42macro.com/Darius Dale on Twitter: @42macroDDaleJack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks’ Twitter: @Blockworks_----BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Andy Constan joins Jack to discuss the latest in financial news, reflecting on the Fed while discussing topics like market plumbing, roll-downs, and more. Andy Constan injects his absolute expertise of the subject matter into this interview-- you won't want to miss it. Follow Andy Constan @dampedspringFollow Jack Farley @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks @Blockworks____If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter