Forward Guidance

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has stunned markets by raising the cap on its 10-year government bond and there’s no one Jack would rather speak to than, Weston Nakamura, macro analyst and BOJ aficionado.Weston tells Jack that the BOJ’s decision to allow Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to trade with a higher yield was not, as some westerners might presume, to fight inflation or even necessarily to defend the yen. Rather, the Bank of Japan is seeking to restore order to the JGB market, which has been steadily deteriorating throughout this year.Weston argues that if Japanese investors with capital abroad repatriate their capital and sell foreign assets, the U.S. Treasury market could be in for a wild ride, one similar to the chaos in U.K. gilt market in September. Filmed the afternoon of December 20, 2022.Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the $TACK ETF, joins Jack Farley to share her analysis of the charts of stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the first technical analysis interview on Forward Guidance, Stockton explains and incorporates indicators such as moving average convergence divergence (MACD), Ichimoku clouds, moving averages, and stochastic oscillators. She tells Jack that in the short-run, the technicals remain bearish for the S&P 500, and she also offers her reading on oil, gold, and the 10-year Treasury yield. Filmed on Friday, December 16, 2022.--Follow Katie Stockton on Twitter https://twitter.com/StocktonKatieFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki__This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.__Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:23) Key Concepts In Technical Analysis (TA)(05:30) Support And Resistance(11:06) Combining Different Indicators To Draw Conclusions(24:02) Curve Ad(25:08) Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Explainer(33:02) Outlook on S&P 500(35:36) Outlook on Oil(44:48) Gold(46:47) Treasury Yields(50:24) Sector Analysis(54:18) Common Mistakes In Technical Analysis--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today’s interview is something unlike any other that’s ever appeared on Forward Guidance. It concerns China, a country that once was the engine of global economic growth, but now is in the middle of its worst recession in over 20 years. Can China’s economy emerge stronger than ever? Let’s just say that today’s guests, Kyle Bass and Nick Glinsman, are not optimistic. Kyle Bass is the chief investment officer of Hayman Capital and Nick Glinsman is the founder of Malmgren Glinsman & Partners.An important disclaimer: a guest today makes serious allegations that are solely his own opinion. Blockworks does not necessarily agree with these claims, some of which are unverified or unverifiable, and in no way endorses them. As always, nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.--Follow Kyle Bass on Twitter https://twitter.com/JkylebassFollow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsmanFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:06) Kyle Bass’ 2023 Macro Outlook(04:20) Will A Global Recession Curb Energy Prices?(13:10) China's Economy(23:00) The Chinese Communist Party(28:46) Why Won't Beijing Reflate?(43:57) Russia and Putin(48:42) Uranium and the Fed(52:19) Outlook on Bonds in 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist at Quill Intelligence, joins Jack to share her views on the upcoming extremely busy week, which sees the release of November’s inflation (CPI) data on Tuesday and the culmination of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Filmed the afternoon of Monday, December 12.__Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:04) Preparing For This Week's Fed Meeting(04:37) The Dot Plot(13:50) What Are The Odds Of A Hidden Pivot?(17:42) The Job Market(24:54) How Hot Will Inflation Be?(30:21) Quantitative Tightening (QT)(40:46) The Housing And Auto Market Is Getting Even Worse(45:40) Recession(48:08) Consumer Spending Is Falling(51:33) Can Services Save Us?

Felix Zulauf, renowned macro investor and founder of Zulauf Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share his market outlook for 2023 and beyond. Zulauf argues that recessions in China and Europe will weaken corporate earnings, and that as the U.S. economy also slows down, pessimistic earnings guidance from companies will quickly catalyze severe stock market declines. However, he thinks that the bear market will likely end in early 2023, because a credit event (likely in China) will force central banks - most notably the Federal Reserve - to stop tightening monetary policy, and that this “pivot” will arrest the fall in equity prices. Zulauf tells Jack Farley that China’s growing trade dominance is augering profound geopolitical and economic changes, and he shares his view on sovereign bond yields, cryptocurrencies, and commodity prices. Filmed on December 7, 2022Zulauf Consulting is a boutique research and consulting firm that offers investment advisory services to institutional investors and family offices. For more information, go to https://www.felixzulauf.com/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:27) Profound Geopolitical Change(05:51) Stock Market Outlook(9:31) Potential Credit Meltdown In China(18:06) Curve Sponsor Reading(19:11) China's Stock Market Does Not Represent The Chinese Economy(22:09) Why Is The Euro So Weak?(24:09) The U.S. Dollar(26:57) Felix Zulauf's Outlook on Treasury Bonds(35:27) The Federal Reserve Will Pivot In Early 2023(39:22) The Final Phase Of The Equity Bear Market(45:12) Crypto--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack speaks to a true titan in the investment business. David Rubenstein is the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group, a global investment firm with over $360 Billion in assets under management, and he joins Forward Guidance to share lessons from his latest book, “How To Invest: Masters On The Craft,” in which he spoke to legendary investors such as Stan Druckenmiller and Jim Simons about the keys to their success. Link to David Rubenstein’s book: https://www.amazon.com/How-Invest-David-M-Rubenstein/dp/1982190302Link to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nwf_VySYFU&t=601sLink to David Rubenstein’s interview with Fed Chair Jay Powell in 2019: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLE3eRMFUJo&t=17s--Follow David Rubenstein on Twitter https://twitter.com/DM_RubensteinFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsjGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:25) What Makes A Great Investor?(04:16) David Rubenstein's Journey Into Private Equity(09:06) Importance Of Getting Involved In On The Ground Floor(11:42) Fundraising(19:22) Inflation(21:05) The Business Cycle(24:22) Venture Capital and Technology Valuations(27:36) Economic Outlook(29:22) How High Will The Federal Reserve Hike Interest Rates?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, joins Jack to discuss his investment outlook at this current point in the business cycle. Finucane argues that the U.S. is at the beginning of a multi-year economic slowdown that will see corporate earnings dwindle materially across many sectors, and that accordingly preservation of capital is top priority.Finucane and Farley discuss the housing and auto market, outlook on fixed-income and the Federal Reserve, as well as individual stock ideas. Filmed on November 21, 2022.--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:26) Outlooks on Growth and Inflation(02:39) The Housing Market Recession(05:33) The Auto Market(08:05) General Investment Outlook(10:49) MegaCap Tech Stocks(13:19) Banks and Other Financial Stocks(14:15) Fixed-Income Outlook(16:49) Is Sentiment Too Bearish?(19:34) How Much Will Corporate Earnings Grow In 2023 (if at all)?(22:19) Curve Ad(23:21) How High Will The Fed Hike Interest Rates?(27:09) Municipal and Investment Grade Corporate Bonds(28:34) Even More Bearish Than Summer 2022(33:16) Long-Duration Treasurys(34:41) Sectors and Individual Stocks(36:31) Will Companies Be Able to Pass Costs Onto Consumers In 2023?(42:56) Energy(44:32) About Oxbow--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get $1,000 off The pH report and receive a free sample report, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co, or visit https://new-normal.com/the-ph-report-overview/.Having shared his dire warnings about the chemicals market, Paul Hodges, and author of The pH Report and chairman of New Normal Consulting, returns to Forward Guidance to share equally grim tidings about the global automotive industry, which Hodges argues is entering a severe recession. Hodges notes that sales volumes and car prices are falling sharply around the world, and he discusses cyclical as well as secular themes in Asian, European, and American automobile markets. Disclosure: The pH Report is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Blockworks receives a share of proceeds for each conversion to The pH Report. For any questions, email phodges@new-normal.com or jack@blockworks.co.--Paul Hodges on Twitter https://twitter.com/paulhodges1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:50) The Health Of The Global Car Market(05:08) The U.S. Auto Market(13:49) Car Values Are Falling - What's Next?(24:32) Slowdown in Chinese Auto Market(30:30) Tesla(33:43) Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) - When WIll They Become Mainstream?(45:23) Europe's Auto Market(51:23) Investing In Electric and Autonomous Vehicles(01:06:51) China's Relationships with Non-Chinese Automakers(01:10:33) The pH Report As a Research Partner of Forward Guidance(01:14:05) The Chemicals Market Remains Stupendously Bearish--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income and Repo at Curvature Securities, joins Jack Farley to share insights from his book “The Money Noose: Jon Corzine and the Collapse of MF Global.” Scott and Jack explore the startling parallels between the fall of the futures brokerage MF Global in 2011 and the recent collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX: the merging of proprietary trading with a brokerage, the illusion of “risk-free” trades funded with borrowed money, the liquidity mismatch between liabilities and assets, the misuse of client funds, the stubborn CEO with political connections and heavy risk appetite who is surrounded by “yes men,” and an alleged acquisition by a supposed savior that is later terminated (Binance for FTX, Interactive Brokers for MF Global).Jack explains why it is his opinion that the fall of FTX is much “worse” than the the MF Global, in that at MF Global the use of customer funds was a last resort, where in the case of FTX, it is Jack’s reading that FTX likely misused (or at least “mislabelled) its customer funds well before its liquidity crisis. Lastly, Scott shares his outlook on the repurchase (“repo”) markets in 2022, as well as the Fed’s dilemma between price stability and financial stability.Follow Scott on Twitter https://twitter.com/ScottSkyrmFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:18) Is FTX The New MF Global?(02:24) MF Global's Transformation After 2008(11:07) Can Broker Dealers Touch Client Funds?(20:11) Lack Of Controls At MF Global And FTX(23:29) Cross-Margining(32:52) MF Global's Risky Repo-To-Maturity Trades(40:54) The Risks Of Repo-To-Maturity Trades(43:19) FTX's Imaginary Tokens: FTT & SRM(47:40) MF Global's Ultimate Fate(53:59) The Fed's Dilemma(58:51) The Repo Market in 2022__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

James Block, author at Dirty Bubble Media, joins Jack to explain the knock-on effects of the demise of the crypto exchange FTX.James is an amateur crypto researcher who saw in FTX and Alameda Research what many crypto professionals missed: hidden leverage, inflated assets, and in some cases, outright fraud.He now shares his view on potential contagion to Gemini, Genesis, Digital Currency Group (DCG), BlockFi, and other firms in the crypto ecosystem. James’ writings at Dirty Bubble Media can be found here: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/James’ piece on Alameda Research: https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/is-alameda-research-insolventJames’ piece on Digital Currency Group (DCG): https://dirtybubblemedia.substack.com/p/digital-currency-grift__Follow James on Twitter https://twitter.com/MikeBurgersburgFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguvFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dkiFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj___This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:45) "Is Alameda Research Insolvent?"(03:02) Red Flags With Alameda & Celsius(12:35) Binance(15:01) Crypto Contagion(19:13) Curve Ad(20:16) Digital Currency Group (DCG) and Genesis(35:16) Where Did Crypto Yield Come From?(40:00) Was The $8 Billion Ever At FTX To Begin With?(45:11) What's The Next Shoe To Drop?__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.