Ed Harrison, senior editor at Bloomberg and author of The Everything Risk, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on inflation, the Federal Reserve’s ongoing tightening efforts, and the sell-off in long-duration tech stocks. Harrison shares his outlook on China, commodities, the FAANG stocks, and why he sees the makings for a new era for markets.__Follow Ed Harrison on Twitter https://twitter.com/edwardnhFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(02:36) Is The Era of East Money Over?(04:56) Comparisons to the 2000s Tech Album(13:30) Valuing Companies With Network Effects(16:23) Markets Reaction To Monetary Policy(18:46) ARKK(22:25) Fed Rate Hikes & Credit Markets(27:26) Where Is The Fed Put?(31:53) Bit.com Ad(32:25) A Shift From Deflation to Inflation?(37:31) FANTAMAN Stocks(40:28) How China is Exporting Stagflation(41:55) Russia's Invasion of Ukraine & The Effect On Energy Markets(46:19) Will High Energy Prices Cause Demand Destruction?(50:05) 5YR Breakeven Inflation(51:40) Inflation in Europe(52:58) The Global Dollar Wrecking Ball(56:06) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

George Noble has seen many bubbles in his storied career: the 2008 Great Financial Crisis, the Dotcom Bubble of 2000, and the Japanese mega-bubble which he rode on the way up and down. But no prior period of speculation compares to what Noble sees now: a mega bubble of epic proportions, fueled primarily by a wave of central bank liquidity that has taken non-profitable technology stocks to previously unimaginable heights.Noble argues that inflation has been popping this bubble and that equities are “toast” and that goldilocks is “dead.” Noble sees overvaluation problems not only in the “ARKK” stocks but also darlings of the S&P 500 such as Amazon, Apple, and Netflix.As a warning to viewers, Noble shares words from the legendary investor Peter Lynch (his mentor): “know what you own.”George Noble on Twitter https://twitter.com/gnoble79Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--Timestamps(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Background(06:55) The Everything Bubble(13:36) The Powell Pivot(20:58) ARKK(25:43) BCB Ad(26:32) Inflation Is Popping The Bubble In Long-Duration Assets(39:50) Are Bonds A Hedge For Stock Sell-offs? (Answer: No)(41:12) How Low Can Stocks Go?(43:22) Netflix and Amazon(50:10) "Peter Lynch Would Not Be Buying Apple Right Now"(52:50) Energy(59:30) Crypto(1:02:50) Noble's Twitter Spaces--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “Forward Guidance,” Jack Farley is joined by the mysterious green chicken known only as “Doomberg,” a research publication on energy, food, and fertilizer.Doomberg argues that the ongoing surge in oil and natural gas prices is due to key policy errors that, if they continue, will ensure that price shock will turn into a full-blown energy and food crisis that will push many countries to the brink of recession, particularly Europe and frontier market nations.Doomberg breaks down the frightening dependence of Europe on Russian energy and explains how, in the case of Germany, a rejection of nuclear power by so-called “environmentalists” led to its embrace of coal.--Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergTFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe to Doomberg https://doomberg.substack.com/Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI (edited)--(00:00) Intro(00:33) The Start of Doomberg(05:27) Core Energy Thesis(12:00) How Germany's Rejection of Nuclear Led To Its Embrace Of Coal(14:32) The Weaponization of Russia's Natural Gas(19:40) Europe's Dependence on Russian Energy(34:00) Bit.com Ad(34:30) Nuclear Power(39:20) Farmers On The Brink(47:30) Oil(54:57) Renewables(01:08:36) Questions From Audience--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow Jim Bianco https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Joseph Wang https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Timestamps:(00:00) Opening Thoughts(08:05) Powell's "Codewords"(15:10) The Balance Sheet: Stock vs. Flow(22:10) Is The Fed No Longer Credible?(27:32) When Is Inflation Going to Peak?(47:15) Worst Bond Market Sell-Off Since George Washington Became President(51:30) Systemic Risks For The Financial Systems(53:00) Are Rate Hikes Good for Commercial Banks?(1:01:04) How Far Can The Fed Go?

Danielle DiMartino Booth, founder and CEO of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley and former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang to share her outlook on this week’s FOMC meeting. Booth argues that the Federal Reserve’s lateness to fight inflation has caused it to lose a lot more credibility, and makes the case that it risks to lose even more credibility if it fails to recognize that the economy is slowing rapidly. Booth notes that credit spreads are widening rapidly and argues that it will be a credit market blow-up, not an equity market drawdown, that forces the Federal Reserve to change course. Wang and Booth discuss how rising mortgage rates will deter the Fed from shrinking its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and they each give their take on the continued sell-off in Treasury bonds.Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter @DiMartinoBoothFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter @FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Scott Skyrm, Executive Vice President in fixed income & repo at Curvature Securities, joins former senior Fed trader Joseph Wang and host Jack Farley to share his insights from deep within the repo markets. Skyrm explores whether the Fed’s forthcoming balance sheet runoff will agitate repo markets like last time in September 2019, when repo rates spiked higher. Skyrm (@ScottSkyrm) and Wang (@FedGuy12) weigh important considerations, such as the Fed’s involvement with the market and what current repo rates indicate about the level of bond shorting. Skyrm tells Farley (@JackFarley96) that the trillions of Treasury collateral that the market will have to absorb over the next year will drain the ~$1.8 Trillion in Fed’s reverse repo facility, yank repo rates higher, and eventually cause the market to rely once again on the Fed’s standing repo facility.--BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack

Jack’s next guest is someone who has timed this cycle better than literally anyone he knows in macro.Since the beginning of the year, the elusive Teddy Vallee has been short almost everything, stocks but in particular U.S. government bonds, which are in the midst of their most vicious sell-off in almost 40 years. But very recently, Teddy has closed his short in government bonds and has actually entered a massive long position in Treausurys. Teddy tells Farley why he expects growth and inflation to slow rapidly as the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy.A note on the title: up until very recently, Vallee had “the everything short” (short stocks and bonds) on. But now that he is long bonds, he no longer does.Filmed on Tuesday, April 26.--Follow Teddy Vallee on Twitter: https://twitter.com/TeddyValleeFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Teddy's Successful Bond Short in Early 2022(04:20) Teddy's Successful Equity Short in Early 2022(05:43) The Economy Is Slowing Rapidly(07:58) The Fed's Key Error(11:05) Chinese Lockdowns Destroying Economic Growth(16:06) Going From Short to Long The Bond Market(23:33) What If The Fed Remains Hawkish(26:14) Bit.com Ad(26:46) Oil & Bretton Woods 3(28:46) Confidence Levels Of Long Bond Trade(30:12) Quantitative Tightening's (QT) Impact on Bond Yields(38:35) When Will Powell Pivot?(41:30) Gold(42:25) CryptoIf you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Frances Coppola, Economist, Author & banking expert, joins Forward Guidance to give an update on how the West's new sanctions on Russia are playing out. Coppola explains how key commodities such as Russian natural gas and oil continue to flow to Western countries, and she makes an impassioned case for why a ban on Russian energy is necessary to thwart the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.--Follow Frances Coppola on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Frances_CoppolaFollow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack--(00:00) Introduction(00:58) Overview of Sanctions on Russia(07:08) Oil & Natural Gas(09:30) Wheat(14:20) Demand Destruction and Recession Risk(18:00) When Will We Hit Peak Inflation?(21:20) Central Bank Response Function(27:01) The European Central Bank (ECB) And Inflation(32:02) BCB Ad(35:45) The Dollar's Surge(1:20:36) Breton Woods III

“Liquidity” is a critical concept in markets that many may have heard, but few truly understand. Michael Howell, managing director at Cross Border Capital, is the global liquidity flows. He breaks down what liquidity is and he explains to Jack Farley how the tide of liquidity that has lifted asset prices over the past two years is reversing very quickly. Howell argues that, since 95% of central banks are tightening at the same time, the short-term risk/reward for stocks is poor, and he thinks a further 20% correction is ahead for the equity market. Howell explains the complex yield curve dynamics, and explains why the ongoing liquidity collapse might finally make long-term government bonds attractive once again. Filmed on Tuesday, April 19, 2022. A note on the title: Howell’s expectation of a 30% in stocks is from peak-to-trough, and since equities are down nearly 10% already, that would equate to a further fall of 20% from current levels (not 30% from current levels)._Follow Cross Border Capital on Twitter @crossbordercapFollow Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_____Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter--Timestamps--(00:00) Introduction(00:45) What Is Liquidity? (10:59) The Turbulence Zone(21:06) What Will Be The First To Break?(23:58) Why Are Stocks And Credit Still So Richly Priced?(26:35) But What About Inflation?(32:24) Bit.com Ad(43:32) Can China Save the Day?(47:05) Why Falling Liquidity Causes A Dollar Squeeze(50:33) How High Oil Prices Further Deteriorate Liquidity(53:04) History of Global Liquidity(56:28) Capital Wars and Bretton Woods III(1:08:25) Is The Yield Curve Signaling A Recession?(1:09:56) How Far Will The Fed Get With QT? (Bagehot's Dictum)

DC Analyst joins Joseph Wang and Jack Farley for a discussion about commercial banks, treasuries, and bearishness on banks.--DC on Twitter: @AnalystDCJoseph Wang on Twitter: @FedGuy12Jack Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_--Links___Liberty Street Economics, "The Fed’s Balance Sheet Runoff and the ON RRP Facility":https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2022/04/the-feds-balance-sheet-runoff-and-the-on-rrp-facility/Bullard's Triple Rate Hike Comment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-19/last-resort-fed-hike-enters-debate-as-bullard-invokes-1994-moveDC's substack: https://dcchartbook.substack.com/p/chartbook-15?s=rJoseph Wang's writings: https://fedguy.com/draining-the-rrp/--(00:00) Introduction To DC Analyst(02:01) Why Are Banks Buying Fewer Treasuries?(14:30) Implosion Of The Japanese Yen(20:40) Who Will Buy The Treasuries?(31:20) What If Banks Don't Lend More?(37:30) Bearish For Banks? (No)(42:47) Quantitative Tightening - Will The Fed Be Forced to Sell?(46:57) Mortgage-Backed Securities(57:40) Bullard's Comments on Triple-Hike