Forward Guidance

On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a “bailout” and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an unambiguous “yes.”Joseph joins Stephen Miran, co-founder & portfolio manager at Amberwave Partners, alongside Jack Farley for an in-depth conversation on the banking intervention and its effect on moral hazard and monetary plumbing. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 4pm ET.__Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance__Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://twitter.com/SteveMiranFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Hidden To Market,”on FedGuy.com:https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/The joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the FDIC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htmFederal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm__Timestamps:00:00 Intro00:47 The Bank "Bailout"09:10 The Shocking Incompetence of Silicon Valley Bank20:02 Will There Be More Bank Failures?22:40 Public Ad23:44 Moral Hazard in U.S. Banking Bailouts27:55 Why Hasn't Silicon Valley Bank Been Bought?31:35 Emergency Relief From Fed, Treasury, and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)41:41 Consequences of Fed's BTFP Program on Big For Duration52:25 Does Huge Fall In Interest Rates Mean Fed's Hiking Is Over?01:01:13 February Inflation Data__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 10:30am ET.NOTE: This was originally filmed as an episode of "Empire," the crypto podcast hosted by Santiago Santos and Jason Yanowitz, the co-founder of Blockworks. Listen to this episode on the Empire feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signature-banks-demise-whos-next-joseph-wang/id1554930038?i=1000603971972We then discuss if the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program was the right move? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune!- -Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzFollow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepodFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceSubscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2jSubscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprwGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCEDanielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET.--Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Check out Weston Nakamura’s new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8--Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was “unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate” in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japan’s core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting.Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kuroda’s history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context.Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you don’t miss an episode!--Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(10:05) Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring(13:19) Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor)(18:09) Frankenstein Policy(23:26) Japanese Inflation(27:45) Bank Stocks Fall In Japan(29:54) The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank(36:37) Liquidity(43:04) Consequences For Japanese Yen--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why.Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Fed’s rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the bank’s holdings. Whalen argues that, unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates and opens the discount window, the U.S. is at risk of a banking crisis.--Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalenFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil. Hay describes how Volcker’s drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (“Volcker meant business”) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powell’s spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell “means business,” and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise.Follow David Hay on Twitter https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Haymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/__Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023__Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.__Timestamps:00:00 Intro02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over?09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis?11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation?17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds21:07 Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper30:04 Permissionless31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds34:17 Individual Stock Ideas37:26 New Lows In Stock Market?40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made"49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like?55:33 Does Powell Mean Business?58:10 Blockworks Research Plug59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?

Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds.Filmed on March 2, 2023.--Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023(08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer"(15:06) The Housing Market(28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf(33:16) Permissionless plug(34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession?(38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks(45:04) Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question)(48:35) Inflation(52:29) Research Plug(53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?"(56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing?(59:56) The Macro Compass--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM--This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealth joins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point.With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Martin: https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIOFollow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:48) Managing Money During 2022(04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point"(10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management(15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed(17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There(24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers(30:24) Permissionless Plug(31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada(37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession?(40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift"(44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong(52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking(57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio(01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last year’s spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention.Green concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (“0DTE”) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023.Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance--Mike Green’s Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99Follow Simplify on Twitter https://twitter.com/SimplifyAsstMgtFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong?(05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle(08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market(10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy(14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession(20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally(24:58) Is Liquidity Rising?(29:08) Public Ad(30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation(33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool(36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds(38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like(42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE)(58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options(01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management(01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging(01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options(01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.