Forward Guidance

Today, Silicon Valley Bank, an institution with over $200 Billion worth of assets, failed. Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why.Whalen attributes the collapse in book value of SVB Financial (the entity that owns Silicon Valley Bank) to the Fed’s rapid hikes in interest rates, which severely depressed the market value of the bank’s holdings. Whalen argues that, unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates and opens the discount window, the U.S. is at risk of a banking crisis.--Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalenFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil. Hay describes how Volcker’s drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (“Volcker meant business”) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powell’s spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell “means business,” and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise.Follow David Hay on Twitter https://twitter.com/Haymaker_0Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Haymaker Substack: https://haymaker.substack.com/__Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023__Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/__Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.__Timestamps:00:00 Intro02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over?09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis?11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation?17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds21:07 Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper30:04 Permissionless31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds34:17 Individual Stock Ideas37:26 New Lows In Stock Market?40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made"49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like?55:33 Does Powell Mean Business?58:10 Blockworks Research Plug59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?

Alfonso (“Alf”) Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass and host of The Macro Trading Floor, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he is starting to like bonds at this point in the business cycle. Alf and Jack discuss inflation, the labor market, the Fed hiking cycle, “higher for longer,” the housing market, the earnings cycle, and how all of these factors affect the future performance of longer-duration Treasury bonds.Filmed on March 2, 2023.--Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_The Macro Compass on Substack: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/The Macro Compass: https://www.themacrocompass.com/subscribe/--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:16) Alf's Framework for 2023(08:37) Bond Market Is NOT Currently Pricing A True "Higher For Longer"(15:06) The Housing Market(28:22) Recession in June 2023, Says Alf(33:16) Permissionless plug(34:19) Decoupling - Could Oil & Copper Rise Even As U.S. Enters Recession?(38:55) Alf's View On Bonds & Stocks(45:04) Is It Likely That Bonds Can Perform As The Fed Continues to Hike? (Jack's Question)(48:35) Inflation(52:29) Research Plug(53:27) Are Consumers "Feeling The Heat?"(56:36) Is It Time To Go Long, Or Time To Go Short, Or Time To Go Fishing?(59:56) The Macro Compass--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Follow On The Margin: Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3yc4079 Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM--This epsidoe is taken from the On The Margin weekly roundup. As Mark takes some well deserved time off, Mike Ippolito host of the On The Margin podcast combines forces with Jack Farley, host of the Forward Guidance podcast for a special edition of Forward Marginal Guidance.As Berkshire Hathaway released their 2023 shareholder letter, we invited Buffett expert Yun Li to the show to share her top takeaways from this years annual letter. We then take a deep dive into inflation, yields and the how the Fed may be forced to act as signs of inflation resurging rear their head. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Yun: https://twitter.com/YunLi626Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2022ltr.pdf--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Martin Pelletier, Senior Portfolio Manage at TriVest Wealth joins Forward Guidance to discuss the "structural shift" that has occurred in markets due to rising inflation throughout 2021 & 2022, and how to navigate this new turning point.With Martin's background running a long only energy hedge fund, we go on to discuss the energy trade and if the underinvestment in the industry has created the perfect catalyst for a sustained bull market, or not? We also discuss Joseph & Martin's thought on the labor market, the outlook for global central banks and the path ahead for 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Martin: https://twitter.com/MPelletierCIOFollow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:48) Managing Money During 2022(04:43) Markets Are Signalling A New "Turning Point"(10:19) 2008 Signalled A "Structural Shift" In Canadian Asset Management(15:41) The Bank of Canada... Follows The Fed(17:55) Energy Is The Most Hated Trade Out There(24:11) Natural Gas & Energy Producers(30:24) Permissionless Plug(31:26) Housing & Interest Rates In Canada(37:50) Are We Heading For A Recession?(40:06) 2020 Marked A "Structural Shift"(44:30) The Labor Market Remains Strong(52:46) The Anguish of Central Banking(57:42) The Role of Structured Notes In A Portfolio(01:07:30) The Path Ahead For 2023--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, returns to Forward Guidance to share his views on the labor market, the U.S. economy, and stocks and bonds. Green tells Jack Farley that the apparent strength of the labor market is not fully capturing the layoffs in tech, and that last year’s spike in interest rates are already causing damage in commercial real estate and auto lending that is only beginning to draw attention.Green concludes that the U.S. economy is headed towards a recession, and he then proceeds to explain zero day-to-expiry (“0DTE”) options and weigh hedging strategies in the volatility space. Filmed on February 28th, 2023.Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance--Mike Green’s Substack: https://michaelwgreen.substack.com/Follow Mike Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/profplum99Follow Simplify on Twitter https://twitter.com/SimplifyAsstMgtFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:45) Is The Labor Market Truly Strong?(05:46) Where We Are In The Economic Cycle(08:40) Commercial Real Estate & Auto Market(10:59) Interest Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Economy(14:20) We Are Approaching A Recession(20:52) Explaining The Recent Rally(24:58) Is Liquidity Rising?(29:08) Public Ad(30:12) The True Cause Of Inflation(33:19) Debt Is Just A Tool(36:02) Outlook on Stocks And Bonds(38:25) What A Bear Market Dominated By Passive Flows Looks Like(42:47) Zero Day To Expiry Options (0DTE)(58:49) Conclusions about 0DTE Options(01:06:03) Simplify Asset Management(01:09:16) Advanced Discussion on Options & Hedging(01:13:29) Disclaimer on Options(01:14:24) Cash Is A Cheap Option--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Right now, U.S. officials in Washington D.C. are preparing legislation that will cut off foreign investment into China. That’s according to Jack’s two guests today, Harald Malmgren & Nick Glinsman. According to them, the Biden administration is preparing an executive order that will fundamentally alter America’s financial relationship with China.Harald Malmgren is an economist, ambassador, and former adviser to four U.S. presidents, and Nicholas Glinsman is an investor who has worked at macro hedge funds such as Brevan Howard. Their new venture Malmgren-Glinsman Partners, is a research partner of Forward Guidance. Email jack@blockworks.co for discounted access to Malmgren Glinsman Partners (Daily newsletter $900 per year, weekly institutional product available via request).--Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/HalsrethinkFollow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsmanFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:53) The Fraying Of U.S China Relations(09:05) "China's Growth Model Is Dying"(18:33) Restriction of Foreign Investment In China - What Would It Look Like?(26:18) Are We In A New Economic Cold War?(35:31) Putin & Russia's Invasion Of Ukraine(41:31) "The Sternness of NATIO is New"(45:12) A Potential Peace Deal Negotiated By China?(51:49) "The Market Is Not Ready For This"(54:52) Malmgren-Glinsman Partners(59:12) Liquidity is NOT Rising, Says Malmgren(01:07:00) Is Credit Contracting?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

How should the world decarbonize its economy and maximize human flourishing? Steve Keen, post-Keynesian economist and Green New Deal proponent, explores this question with Doomberg, energy advocate and green chicken, in a no holds barred discourse on the future of energy and climate. --Follow Doomberg on Twitter https://twitter.com/DoombergTFollow Steve Keen on Twitter https://twitter.com/ProfSteveKeenFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Doomberg on Substack https://doomberg.substack.com/aboutSteve Keen Patreon https://www.patreon.com/ProfSteveKeen--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:52) What Is Wrong With Current Energy Policy?(12:44) The Green New Deal(16:10) ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)(22:20) "Garbage" Analysis of Climate Change by Neoclassical Economics(29:10) Permissionless Plug(30:12) Nuclear, Solar, and Wind(42:30) Government Action vs. Private Sector(51:07) Doom on Europe's Energy Situation(59:19) "I Would Be Nationalizing All Fossil Fuel Companies"(01:02:35) Research plug(01:03:33) Closing Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The Federal Reserve and the bulls have been hoping for a “soft landing” scenario in which inflation falls but the economy doesn’t enter a recession. The odds of a “soft landing” appear to have increased over the past few months - but what are the odds that, should it come to pass, a soft landing will actually last? Bob Elliott, CIO of Unlimited Funds, and and Andy Constan, founder of Damped Macro Research and 2 Gray Beards, join Forward Guidance to debate the odds. Constan and Elliott, former colleagues at asset management behemoth Bridgewater Associates, also share their views on liquidity, asset valuations, and interest rates.Twitter exchange between Bob Elliott & Andy Constan that sparked this conversation: https://twitter.com/dampedspring/status/1621896223996125192--Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspringFollow Bob Elliott on Twitter https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedFollow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeardsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) What Is The Soft Landing?(04:01) "The Odds Of A Soft Landing Are Very Low”(12:45) January Inflation Data(19:04) How High Can The Fed Hike Rates?(24:50) Outlook for Stocks(29:02) Permissionless Plug(30:10) The Recession Bets Are Being Unwound(36:05) Andy's Short Asset Trade(41:37) Why Are Financial Conditions Loosening?(45:47) Offshore Demand For Treasurys(51:40) Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Interest Rates(01:01:52) Is Inverted Yield Curve A Systemic Drag On Liquidity That May Outlast Temporary Influxes of Liquidity?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

What is a true financial crisis, how does it differ from the mere popping of a speculative bubble or a vanilla recession, and what are the current risks of a financial crisis right now?Steven Kelly, an expert on financial crises and Senior Research Associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability, joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang (“Fed Guy”) to discuss these questions. Wang, a former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve, shares his insight on why, despite the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) and rapid rate hikes, liquidity remains high. Kelly and Wang agree that the risk of a true financial crisis such as the one in 2008 is unlikely to occur, because as Kelly argues, banks have much more capital to endure losses.Filmed on February 13, 2023.--Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.9% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to public.com/forwardguidance*26-week T-bill rate (as of 2/6/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.**As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).--Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Steven Kelly on Twitter https://twitter.com/StevenKelly49Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Steven Kelly on bank regulation: https://rb.gy/isdjlmJoseph Wang on QT https://rb.gy/fdwd5j--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:38) What Is A Financial Crisis?(05:14) "It's Really Hard To Find Capital In A Crisis"(08:16) Bank Capital Ratios(16:35) What Is The Risk Of A Financial Crisis Right Now?(22:06) The Federal Reserve As The Dealer Of Last Resort(27:20) Public Ad(28:28) Joseph Wang On The Fed During March 2020(34:25) Do Rate Hikes and Quantitative Tightening (QT) Increase Risk of Financial Crisis?(36:51) Why Is Liquidity Rising?(42:51) What Is The "Problematic" Collateral Now?(46:36) "Everything Looks Fine"(50:49) Unrealized Losses on Bank Balance Sheets Due To Rate Hikes(54:05) Inverted Yield Curve(54:56) The Debt Ceiling(01:00:41) Is There A Limit To How High The Fed Can Hike?(01:03:36) Potential Risks In The Shadow Banking System(01:13:19) Inflation As A Financial Risk Itself--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.