Forward Guidance

Marc Cohodes, accomplished short-seller and financial bloodhound, is on the ultimate hot-streak. Over the past six months, he has been the sternest critic of FTX, Silvergate, and Signature Bank, all of which either have ceased operations as a corporate entity or will do so shortly. He shares what led him to call out FTX in the summer of 2022 (months before its bankruptcy in the fall) and why he shorted the stocks of Silvergate ($SI) and Signature Bank ($SBNY), which have both collapsed in value (a share of Silvergate trades at less than two dollars and shares of Signature Bank no longer trade after it was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on March 12). Cohodes also explains the immense difficulties that short-sellers frequently face, and he shares his opinion on turmoil swirling around the U.S. regional banking system. Over the course of this interview, Cohodes makes several allegations which are solely his own opinion. Filmed the afternoon of March 20, 2023.____Follow Marc Cohodes on Twitter https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggsFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023____Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeyw____Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(14:59) Silvergate and Signature Bank as "Publicly-Traded Crime Scenes"(23:47) Silicon Valley Bank(31:30) Is This Similar to 2008? (Answer: Not Really)(58:43) What Marc Is Working On Now(01:04:18) Blockworks Research(01:05:18) The Dangerous Life Of A Professional Short-Seller____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For 40% off an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime (220 / year instead of 374 / year), go to https://macrohive.com/jack or use discount code JACK at checkout.Macro Hive sample report on Silicon Valley Bank (co-written by Mustafa Chowdhury): https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/silicon-valley-bank-how-the-government-plans-to-contain-the-fallout/___Just how bad was the risk management at Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) when it came to the threat of rising rates? And now that rates have exploded higher over the past year, is this interest rate risk limited to only a few banks, or are these risks spread throughout the entire U.S. banking system?Jack’s today is uniquely qualified to answer these questions. Mustafa Chowdhury, chief rates strategist at Macro Hive, practically invented the field of interest rate risk management, and two decades ago he was successfully managing interest rate risk on Freddie Mac’s giant portfolio of mortgages worth hundreds of billions of dollars (several times that of Silicon Valley Bank). Chowdhury argues that, contrary to claims otherwise, the U.S. banking system was not sufficiently hedged for 2022's interest rate shock.Filmed on March 16, 2023.___Follow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_HiveFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:33) Mustafa Chowdhury's Background(4:39) "That's The Mortgage Game"(11:27) Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank: Interest Rate Risk Lurking At The Scene Of The Crime(21:14) How To Properly Hedge Interest Rate Risk Properly(27:37) Chowdhury Pioneered Use Of Swaptions In 1990s(29:36) Silicon Valley Bank (SVB): Who To Blame?(33:20) Accounting Treatment (Available For Sale Vs. Held-To-Maturity)(41:47) The Fed's Convexity Quantitative Easing (QE) Continues(50:35) Bank Profitability With Higher Deposit Costs(01:03:50) Interest Rate Risk Is Spread Throughout The U.S. Banking System(01:11:52) "There Will Be Fewer Bank Runs" Because Of FDIC Relief(01:19:29) Will Fed Cut In 2023?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to explain why he doesn’t think the ongoing turmoil in the regional banking system will have much effect outside on the economy or markets. He explains why he thinks the banking businesses do not make great investments. When Jack Farley asks what he does like, Kuppy’s answer is simple: oil. He explains why he remains exceptionally bullish on “black gold” and also shares a stock which he has invested in: Journey Energy. Lastly, Kuppy shares his “do’s and don’ts” of investing. Filmed the afternoon of March 16, 2023.Follow Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hkuppyKuppy’s Event Driven Monitor (KEDM): https://kedm.com/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:58) The Run on Silicon Valley Bank(03:49) Will Measures By Fed Treasury & FDIC Be Enough To Prevent Future Panics?(05:55) Kuppy on Bank Stocks(10:26) Are Rising Rates Good Or Bad For Banks?(15:05) Blockworks Research(16:04) Kuppy Is Very Bullish On Oil(25:34) Natural Gas(29:10) Journey Energy(31:41) How To Value Oil Companies(36:14) Hedging At Oil Companies(37:33) Permissionless(38:36) Kuppy's Shorter-Term Market Views(44:19) Kuppy's "Dont's" of Investing(49:55) KEDM____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This debut episode is from our brand new podcast Market Depth hosted by Weston Nakamura. Follow Market Depth using the links below to stay up to date with the latest episodes!Follow Market Depth On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3mVTs9UFollow Market Depth On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/40dA2vmFollow Market Depth On YouTube: http://bit.ly/3JKhw8I--Follow Weston: https://twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Market Depth or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

For some time now it has been the belief of many Fed-watchers that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates until it “breaks something.” Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Forward Guidance to argue that the stunning collapse of two large U.S. banks represents such breakage. Alden tells Jack Farley that this damage will soon give way to a period of low real interest rates, where inflation runs above Treasury yields. Filmed the afternoon of March 15, 2023.__Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance__Follow Lyn Alden on Twitter https://twitter.com/LynAldenContactFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Alden’s writings can be found at https://www.lynalden.com/__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:43) The Cause Of The Turmoil In Banking System(07:08) Are Rising Interest Rates Actually Good For Banks?(08:50) Alden's Outlook on Banks As A Business(12:47) Has Something "Broken"?(15:38) Interest Rate Risk In The U.S. Banking System(22:43) Public Ad(23:48) Will Banks Become More Cautious About Making Loans?(31:11) Is The Fed's Campaign To Raise Interest Rates Over?(38:37) Debt, Demographics, and MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)(53:28) Recession Risk(58:48) Stock Market During Financial Repression(01:01:29) Fractional Reserve Banking and "The Narrow Bank"__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the turmoil in the banking sector, the consequences of the policy response from Washington, and the fate of the U.S. Dollar as the global reserve currency. Kao argues that the Fed’s recent assistance to U.S. banks allows the Fed to hike more in order to fight inflation.Kao also shares his view on today’s consumer price index (CPI) reading, China, and the global oil market. Recorded at 1pm ET on March 14, 2023.____Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboyFollow Kaoboy Musings on Substack: https://urbankaoboy.substack.com/aboutFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:36) The Banking Panic Could Be Over, Says Michael Kao(09:14) It's The Shadow Banking Sector That's In Trouble(14:11) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy?(17:46) Has The Bank Panic Prevented The Fed From Tightening Monetary Policy?(20:59) Blockworks Research(21:57) Do We Have Structural Inflation?(25:03) Black Swan: Oil To $300(37:33) China's Oil Demand Is Lower Than Expected(41:13) The U.S. Dollar Wrecking Ball(46:24) Permissionless Ad(47:26) China's Hidden Debt(55:36) How Stable Is The U.S. Dollar As The Global Reserve Currency?(01:08:36) Closing Thoughts On Bank Panic & Federal Reserve____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On Sunday, March 12, the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) announced emergency measures to support U.S. regional banks experiencing bank runs. Were these actions a “bailout” and have they already created unintended consequences? To Joseph Wang, former senior trader at the New York Federal Reserve, the answer to both of these questions is an unambiguous “yes.”Joseph joins Stephen Miran, co-founder & portfolio manager at Amberwave Partners, alongside Jack Farley for an in-depth conversation on the banking intervention and its effect on moral hazard and monetary plumbing. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 4pm ET.__Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance__Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Stephen Miran on Twitter https://twitter.com/SteveMiranFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Joseph Wang’s latest piece, “Hidden To Market,”on FedGuy.com:https://fedguy.com/hidden-to-market/The joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury, and the FDIC: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htmFederal Reserve’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312a.htm__Timestamps:00:00 Intro00:47 The Bank "Bailout"09:10 The Shocking Incompetence of Silicon Valley Bank20:02 Will There Be More Bank Failures?22:40 Public Ad23:44 Moral Hazard in U.S. Banking Bailouts27:55 Why Hasn't Silicon Valley Bank Been Bought?31:35 Emergency Relief From Fed, Treasury, and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation)41:41 Consequences of Fed's BTFP Program on Big For Duration52:25 Does Huge Fall In Interest Rates Mean Fed's Hiking Is Over?01:01:13 February Inflation Data__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Signature and Silicon Valley Bank have collapsed. In this breaking news episode, hosts Jason Yanowitz and Jack Farley interview Joseph Wang to discuss the banking system failures and what to expect next. Joseph dives deep into the risk both banks took by not hedging interest rate risk, how this could have been avoided and whether other banks are in a similar position? Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 10:30am ET.NOTE: This was originally filmed as an episode of "Empire," the crypto podcast hosted by Santiago Santos and Jason Yanowitz, the co-founder of Blockworks. Listen to this episode on the Empire feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/signature-banks-demise-whos-next-joseph-wang/id1554930038?i=1000603971972We then discuss if the Fed's Bank Term Funding Program was the right move? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune!- -Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzFollow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepodFollow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceSubscribe on YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4fdhhb2jSubscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprwGet top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

To get a 20% discount off an annual subscription to Danielle DiMartino Booth https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/guidance and use code GUIDANCEDanielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence, joins Jack Farley to share her thoughts on how the ongoing turmoil in the U.S. regional banking sector will affect the economy and the Federal Reserve’s fight with inflation. Recorded on March 13, 2023, at 1pm ET.--Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Check out Weston Nakamura’s new show, Market Depth (First episode airs on Wednesday March 15): Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3YMXoHm Apple: https://apple.co/3ytqwZ8--Today marks the end of an era for the Bank of Japan and global macro writ large, as Haruhiko Kuroda held his final policy meeting as governor of the Bank of Japan for March 2023, leaving his controversial Yield Curve Control policy unchanged, and maintaining a highly dovish stance as he exits. Governor Kuroda held his final press conference in which his only regret was that he was “unable to achieve a sustained 2% inflation rate” in Japan- despite a backdrop of Japan’s core CPI currently double that of the 2% objective, and many market participants and pundits calling for a final signature BOJ-shock for this meeting.Jack Farley welcomes back Weston Nakamura again for a third consecutive BOJ policy meeting review to discuss the deteriorating state of market dysfunction and the warped yield curve amidst the Bank of Japan’s unprecedented scale of continued easing. They also review Governor Kuroda’s history-shaping unprecedented tenure, as well as the incoming new Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, and the behind-the-scenes scramble to find who Weston feels is a disaster of a pick for the post-Kurodanomics era, using references from the hit-series Breaking Bad for character context.Today also marks the beginning of another era, in which Tokyo-based derivatives trader and financial markets content creator Weston Nakamura officially joins Blockworks Macro to host a brand new podcast called Market Depth - in which Weston provides critical cross-asset market commentary and insights from Asia- where market activity and policy developments are having ever greater impact upon the global economy and market landscape. Market Depth debuts on Wednesday March 15th 2023, so be sure to follow the podcast on your favorite app, and subscribe to Blockworks Macro YouTube so that you don’t miss an episode!--Follow Weston Nakamura on Twitter twitter.com/acrossthespreadFollow Jack Farley on Twitter twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter twitter.com/Blockworks_--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(10:05) Kuroda (Departing BOJ Governor) As Gus Fring(13:19) Kazuo Ueda (Incoming BOJ Governor)(18:09) Frankenstein Policy(23:26) Japanese Inflation(27:45) Bank Stocks Fall In Japan(29:54) The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank(36:37) Liquidity(43:04) Consequences For Japanese Yen--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.