Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as “the silent depression.” Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around.--Follow Emil Kalinowski on Twitter https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(00:30) The World's Third Depression(14:25) Recession Trends(16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression(24:25) Banker Greed(30:28) Bit.com Ad(31:00) Speculation During A Depression(34:31) Inflation(44:23) The Euro Dollar System(51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System(53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy(1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth. After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/=-(00:00) Introduction(00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth(07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021(11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario(17:44) Current Market Liquidity (28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies(33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs(40:50) Risk of Recession(46:58) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (“the wolf”) and a striking economic downturn (“the bear”) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world.Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly.--Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValekFollow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferleFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: 2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(00:28) Background(06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble(26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time(40:45) Bit.com(41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook(54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook(1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot?(1:14:00) Counterparty Risk--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Is a recession imminent? What will the impact be on asset prices - and to what degree would it cause the Federal Reserve to stop tightening monetary policy?Today Jack welcomes Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the Federal Reserve, and Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research, to answer these very important questions.--Follow Eric Basmajian on Twitter https://twitter.com/EPBResearchFollow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/Joseph’s writings can be found at https://fedguy.com/--(00:00) Introduction(02:00) Economic Growth Is Stalling(05:00) What Is A Recession?(07:22) The Fed's "Unconditional" Commitment To Fight Inflation(09:20) Odds Of A Soft Landing(17:36) Timeline of a Recession(24:28) Fall Of The Commodity Complex(32:13) Demographics and Inflation(41:45) Bank Lending's Role In Inflation(53:45) Conclusion--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In the spring of 2020, the idea that the world would see persistent inflation was laughed at. No one is laughing now.Vincent Deluard, head of global macro at StoneX, is one of the few macro analysts who foresaw this inflationary spiral to its full extent. He returns to Forward Guidance to explain how in the next leg of this inflationary saga, corporate profits will plummet as unemployment remains low and inflation fails to return to normal levels. Deluard shares several trade ideas and argues that the bear market has only just begun.--Follow Vincent Deluard on Twitter https://twitter.com/VincentDeluardFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(04:41) Reflecting On Inflation Projections(19:35) The Reverse Wealth Effect(24:05) Attributing Inflation As The Cause of Asset Prices Deflating(29:20) Looking at Economic Trends(35:02) Bit.com Ad(35:32) Companies Investors Should Take Caution(40:10) Financing Equity via IPOs and Specs(42:50) Disruptions Caused By Millennial Lifestyle Companies(46:50) Zombie Companies(48:45) The Big Tech Companies(53:17) Outlook on Inflation Over the Next Year(59:00) Yields and the Eurocurve(1:05:40) The Financial System Driving Behaviors(1:09:00) Inflation In Other Countries(1:14:20) The Five Inflation Trades(1:20:30) Japan And the BOJ(1:24:23) Vincent's Psychological Advice for the Market(1:30:04) The Grasshopper Analogy--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode of Forward Guidance Benn Eifert, Founder & CIO of QVR Advisors joins the show for a deep dive discussion on all things volatility. As markets are all down year to date, many investors have been surprised with the orderly selling and lack of increase in the VIX. Luckily we have Benn on the show to share the role of put options in this market, wether or not macro matters for volatility traders and volatility at both the single stock and index level.We also discussed the past two years of stimulus induced retail options trading, how market structure has evolved, the best hedges for a slowly falling market and when we could expect a market bottom. To hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Benn Eifert on Twitter https://twitter.com/bennpeifertFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:15) Background(05:10) The Rise (And Fall?) Of Retails Options Traders(08:50) Put Options' Role In This Year's Viscous Sell-Off(13:57) The VIX(19:29) The Pricing of Tail Risk(24:32) Best Hedges For A Slowly Falling Market(28:00) Single-Stock Volatility(33:34) How Responsive Are Options Market Makers?(39:58) Credit and Treasury Volatility(48:11) Options Expiry ("OpEx")(55:35) Common Options Mistakes(1:01:00) The Macro(1:05:50) Does The VIX Have To Spike In Order For Stocks To Bottom?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Noel Smith, chief investment officer and head of options trading at Convex Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance for a special time-sensitive episode to share an observation from the options markets that he thinks could exert some buying pressure over the next two weeks. Smith notes that, due to a large asset manager putting on a “collar” a while back, options market makers are long lots of gamma at the 3620 level on the S&P 500, and thus will be forced buyers on the way down as they strive to remain delta neutral. This dynamic will only become stronger until the very end of June, and the “fireworks” in the S&P 500 may not start until July. Not investment advice. Filmed on June 16, 2022.--Follow Noel Smith on Twitter https://twitter.com/NoelConvexFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Alfonso “Alf” Peccatiello, author of The Macro Compass and former $20 Billion fund manager, joins Jack Farley to break down yesterday’s action-packed Fed meeting, in which Fed Chair Jay Powell laid out the Fed’s revised framework for moderating the rampant inflation that has beset the U.S. economy. Alf tells Jack why the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed aims for requires a further fall in risk assets, and therefore he expects that cash will perform well. Filmed the morning of June 16, 2022.--Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Alfonso Peccatiello’s writings can be found at https://themacrocompass.substack.com/His most recent piece that he and Jack discuss can found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bad-cop-good-cop?s=r#details--The Fed’s June statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20220615a1.pdfThe Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20220615.pdf--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) FOMC Overview (06:30) Powell - Good Cop or Bad Cop?(09:40) Inflation Expectations and Terminal Rate(12:25)Leverage and VaR Shock(17:08) Can The Fed Actually Control Inflation?(23:13) The Impact Of Higher Rates On Portfolio Allocation(29:37) What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio?(41:43) The Fed's Real Yield Paradigm Shift--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of Forward Guidance, Jack is joined by two phenoms of macro analysis: Juliette Declercq of JDI Research and Darius Dale of 42Macro. The two explore the likelihood of the Fed’s much-desired “soft landing,” a scenario in which inflation moderates without a severe hit to economic growth or asset prices. Both Declercq and Dale argue that a soft landing is unlikely and that a fall in inflation will likely require not only a steep selloff in stocks but also a nosedive in economic growth that could amount to a recession. The trio also discuss the natural rate of interest (“R*”), financial repression, and demand destruction.--Follow Darius Dale on Twitter https://twitter.com/42macroDDaleFollow Juliette Declercq on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulietteJDIFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter____Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:45) The Most Confusing Times In Macro?(04:30) How Far Can The Fed Go In Tightening Monetary Policy?(10:35) Odds Of A Soft Landing(21:02) What Will It Take To Break Inflation?(26:20) Bit.com Ad(26:52) The End Of Free Money(29:54) Europe(34:14) Shorting Equities(38:00) "The Scariest Chart in Macro"(44:07) Asset Allocation --Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With stocks, crypto, bonds, gold, and commodities tanking, Jack calls an emergency podcast and asks trusted Forward Guidance regulars, Joseph Wang and Alfonso Peccatiello, to put the ongoing market volatility in the context of runaway inflation and central bank tightening. Filmed live on June 13, 2022.Follow Alf on Twitter https://twitter.com/MacroAlfFollow Joseph on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Subscribe to Fed Guy: https://fedguy.com/Subscribe to The Macro Compass: TheMacroCompass.substack.comJoseph's latest piece, "Turbo Tightening," can be found here: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/Alf’s latest piece, “The True Reason Why Central Banks Do QE,” can be found here: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/portfolio-rebalancing-qe?s=r#detailsSubscribe To The Blockworks Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter