Forward Guidance

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserve’s meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that “conditions in the banking sector have improved.” Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted.Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Fed’s last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets.Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farley’s discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale.__Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75.Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw—Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Referenced In The Show:The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC —Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market(05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago(15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks?(18:57) Natural Gas(23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies?(28:50) Permissionless(29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market(33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE)(40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook(56:19) Blockworks Research(57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World(01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today First Republic, America’s 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from today’s takeover.____Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalenFollow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic(04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First"(07:06) "We Just Need More Time"(09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut"(11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down(15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)?(19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)(23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk(37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow”(40:55) Permissionless(41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back)(52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)(55:38) Blockworks Research(56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance(01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Dr. Perry Mehrling, Professor of International Political Economy at the Pardee School of Global Studies, Boston University, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the health of the global dollar system. Sharing ideas from his latest book, “Money and Empire: Charles P. Kindleberger and the Dollar System,” Dr. Mehrling shares insights on the extension of the dollar to the global south and globalization of shadow banking. Mehrling and Farley explore whether rumors of the dollar’s death are greatly exaggerated, and how the end of a zero-interest-rate-fueled credit cycle could be a “little rocky.” __“Money and Empire”: https://www.cambridge.org/us/academic/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/money-and-empire-charles-p-kindleberger-and-dollar-system?format=HB“Money and Empire” on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Money-Empire-Kindleberger-Economic-Thinking/dp/1009158570__Follow Perry Mehrling on Twitter https://twitter.com/PMehrlingFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___“The New Lombard Street”: https://www.amazon.com/New-Lombard-Street-Became-Dealer/dp/0691143986/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=i42Qi&content-id=amzn1.sym.ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_p=ed85217c-14c9-4aa0-b248-e47393e2ce12&pf_rd_r=144-5485129-5375822&pd_rd_wg=KL4l1&pd_rd_r=5ee218b8-1e89-4991-8a8d-ac9e7c073e06&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dskPerry Mehrling, Zoltan Pozsar, Daniel Neilson, and James Sweeney, “Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance” https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016__Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:02) What Is The Global Dollar System?(02:32) The Dollar Is International, Not Domestic(06:43) The Inherent Instability Of Thought(08:49) "The Fed Learned Its Lesson From 2008"(11:45) Key Features Of A Global Reserve Currency(20:36) The Fall Of The Sterling Standard After World War 1(24:02) Sterling Was The Standard, Not Gold(26:25) "The Crime Of 1971" Was Nixon's DePegging The Dollar From Gold, According to Kindleberger(27:44) Why Was There Inflation In The 1970s (Instead of Deflation)?(30:50) Next Few Years Will Be "A Little Rocky"(36:03) The Globalization Of Shadow Banking(39:06) Blockworks Research(40:05) Money Market Funds (MMFs), Comparison Between Now And Great Financial Crisis(43:44) "The Dollar System Seems To Be Holding Together"(46:45) The Four Prices Of Money(56:02) Permissionless(57:04) Kindleberger's Critique Of The Triffin Dilemma(01:06:48) The Myth Of Bretton Woods(01:12:32) What's Missing In Contemporary Understanding Of Kindleberger's School Of Thought__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jared Dillian, publisher of The Daily Dirtnap, returns to Forward Guidance to argue why he’s no longer bearish on natural gas, why he thinks the May Fed meeting could be a catalyst for gold, and why hedge fund managers who are still short officer REITs (real estate investment trusts) will get their faces he’s no longer bearish on natural gas. He discusses several essays from his latest book, “Those Bastards: 69 Essays On Life, Creativity, & Meaning.” Filmed on April 17, 2023.____Follow Jared Dillian on Twitter https://twitter.com/dailydirtnapFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(04:01) Shorting Commercial Real Estate Is A Crowded Trade(08:36) Outlook On Stocks(12:24) Healthcare Sector(14:53) Permissionless(15:56) "Gold Is Super Interesting"(19:26) Gold Mining Stocks(22:29) May Fed Meeting Could Be "Next Big Catalyst" For Gold(24:54) Is It Time To Get Bullish On Bonds?(27:25) "The Labor Market Will Weaken A Bit"(28:38) Jared's New Book(30:03) What Is Luck?(36:55) Blockworks Research(37:55) Is Finance Depraved?

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Nathan Tankus Author at Notes on the Crises joins the show for a deep dive into the shadow banking system, recent financial crises and the current state of the banking system post SVB's collapse. Questioning conventional monetary theory, Nathan outlines his thesis authored in a recent paper released in January 2022 "The New Monetary Theory". Nathan also shares his thoughts on the current FDIC limit of $250,000 and how an increase in this limit could help prevent future bank panics. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Subscribe To Notes on the Crises: https://www.crisesnotes.com/Follow Nathan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NathanTankusFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Referenced In The Show: THE NIGHT THEY REREAD POZSAR (IN HIS ABSENCE): https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-night-they-reread-pozsar-in-his-absence/The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One: How Corporate Executives and Politicians Looted the S&L Industry: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Best-Way-Rob-Bank-Own/dp/0292754183 THE NEW MONETARY POLICY: https://files.modernmoney.network/M3F000001.pdf?ref=crisesnotes.comThe Federal Government Always Money-Finances Its Spending: A Restatement: https://www.crisesnotes.com/the-federal-government-always-money/—Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023 Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(03:20) What Is Shadow Money?(14:51) The Collapse of SVB(22:42) The Bank Term Funding Program(29:29) The March Banking Panic Was NOT A Systemic Crisis(31:23) The Savings & Loans Crisis(37:37) Bank Crisis... But The Fed Hiked Rates?(45:17) The New Monetary Policy(01:04:03) Modern Monetary Theory(01:13:03) Re-Thinking Government Borrowing--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ultra short-term Treasurys have rallied so much that the 1 month bill now yields over 150 basis points less than similar instruments at the Federal Reserve. Jeff Snider, chief strategist at Atlas Financial and host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley to discuss.Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.1% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance__Follow Jeff Snider https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(04:30) Money Is Getting Herded Into Highest Tier Of Collateral(07:54) Liquidity Preference Is Extreme(15:21) Treasurys Role In Banks' Asset & Liability Management(18:47) Credit Crunch(22:35) Public Ad(23:39) Are The Bank Runs Over?(30:42) Is The "Mild Recession" Forecast Plausible?(33:57) How Many More Rate Hikes Does The Fed Have In The Chamber?(35:41) The Fed's Efforts To Help The Banking System (BTFP, Discount Window, etc.)(39:40) Were Rate Hikes To Blame For The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)?(43:08) Impact of Quantitative Easing (QE) On Bank Deposit Levels(44:50) Was There "Money Printing" In 2020?(47:42) Did The Banks Take Too Much Interest Rate Risk in 2020 & 2021?(49:48) Defining "Deflationary Money"(55:12) LIBOR Futures Will Be Phased Out, Right?(56:37) Counterargument: Debt Ceiling Is The Reason Short-Term Treasury Bills Are Trading At Such A Premium(01:02:32) Summary Of Jeff's Views On Credit Crunch & Deflationary Money

This week, I join Mike Ippolito on his weekly roundup edition of On The Margin to discuss bank earnings a month on from the "March banking panic". We also discuss the Fed's weekly H.4.1 report which saw a slight uptick in the BTFP usage, and a slight reduction in the discount window borrowing. We then tie how all these factors will effect the economy and markets, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Lightspeed Podcast OpportunityClick here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023--Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Recent efforts by foreign leaders have led some to claim that the U.S. Dollar system will soon cease to be the global reserve currency. Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to Forward Guidance to argue that these arguments are utterly wrong, and he explains why in great detail. He expects a major squeeze to occur sometime over the next two years, although he and Jack discuss the potential for China’s re-emergence from recession as a catalyst for more potential short-term dollar weakness. Filmed on April 20, 2023.__Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Brent Johnson on Twitter at https://twitter.com/SantiagoAuFundFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:32) "You Shouldn't Go All-In Against The United States & The U.S. Dollar"(12:06) Van Eck(12:55) Why Trade Is Invoiced In Dollars(19:01) The Bretton Woods System And The Rise Of "EuroDollars" (Offshore Dollars)(24:18) "Don't Confuse A Possibility With A Probability"(30:52) Sanctions(33:56) The Gold Standard And The Necessary Features Of A Global Reserve Currency(38:44) Bitcoin Standard Would Be "Massively Deflationary"(40:52) Why Are Central Banks Buying Gold?(42:05) When And Why Does The Dollar Spike Higher Against Other Currencies?(47:58) The Debt Ceiling(58:13 China's Belt and Road Initiative(01:00:58) Fears Of A Sovereign Debt Crisis(01:05:06) Currency Hegemons Will Continue To Be The Norm____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The more capital a bank holds, the more losses it can take before going bust. Dr. Martien Lubberink, professor at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Forward Guidance to define regulatory bank capital and put it in context of the conspicuous bank meltdowns in March. Lubberink opines on the issues at Credit Suisse & Silicon Valley Bank through the lens of bank capital, and he shares insights on the health and nature of the banking system of New Zealand, where he currently resides. Filmed on April 6, 2023.--Follow Martin Lubberink on Twitter https://twitter.com/cetier1Read Martin Lubberink’s blog at https://capitalissues.co/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Pieces discussed in the interview:“The Value of Kiwibank”Fresh RBNZ Dashboard data shows New Zealand’s largest banks on track to meet increasing capital ratio requirements”Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:39) Lubberink's Background In Bank Capital During The Great Financial Crisis (GFC)(08:04) What Is Bank Capital?(13:37) Silicon Valley Bank Was A Masterclass In "How To Not Run A Bank"(18:16) Banks' Hedging Of Interest Rate Risk(25:55) Permissionless(26:59) Important Regulatory Bank Capital Ratios(37:26) Credit Suisse & Additional Tier 1 Bonds(46:14) Operational Risks(48:11) "New Zealand Banks Are Among The Most Resilient Banks In The World”(51:32) Interest Rate Hedging Again (Jack Is Obsessed)(55:10) Blockworks Research(56:11) Kiwi Bank(01:01:33) Monetary Policy Of Reserve Bank of New Zealand (NZ's Central Bank)(01:04:08) Real Estate Boom in New Zealand(01:06:59) Relaxation Of U.S. Banking Regulation