Forward Guidance

Dan McNamara, veteran commercial MBS trader and founder of Polpo Capital, joins Forward Guidance to argue that the commercial real estate (CRE) default cycle has only just begun. McNamara notes that the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank is causing regional banks to curb lending to commercial real estate projects, and that as a result many property developers will strategically default and walk away from the buildings. McNamara shares why he has been shorting the riskier tranches of CRE loans via the CMBX, and he tells Jack Farley why the cascade of defaults he expects will cause tremendous damage to the securitized market for CRE loans.Key terms for this interview:CRE = Commercial Real EstateCMBS = Commercial Mortgage-Backed SecuritiesCMBX = a synthetic tradable index referencing a basket of CMBSCLO = Collateralized Loan ObligationLTV = Loan-to-value ratioFilmed on April 11, 2023.Follow Dan McNamara on Twitter https://twitter.com/danjmcnamaraFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(08:01) Office Properties Could Decline by 50% Or More(15:25) Defaults WIll Lead To Forced Selling(20:03) Why Rising Interest Rates Has Imperiled Many Commercial Real Estate Deals(23:25) Regional Banks Are Curbing Lending After Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)(30:01) Differences Between This and The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) And "The Big Short"(35:03) Shorting Tranches of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)(42:09) Views on Highly-Rated Tranches (AAA- and AA-)(45:03) Interest Rate Risk (Duration) Of Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS)(47:45) "We Are Pretty Market Neutral”(50:17) "We Think The Credit Curve Is Still Too Flat"(54:44) The "Refinancing Game" Is Over(01:11:54) If McNamara Is Right About Commercial Real Estate, How Systemic Will This Be?

On today's episode of Forward Guidance Lou Crandall, Chief Economist of Wrightson ICAP & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show to discuss the fallout of the recent bank panic. With two monetary plumbing experts on the show, we take the opportunity to cover a wide range of topics including the real reason bank deposits were leaving banks, the impact of the record $2 trillion parked in the reverse repo, how the Fed can use interest rates to control financial stability and the looming debt ceiling.In the opaque world of financial plumbing, there are no two better guests to welcome to the show, but to hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account.* That's a higher yield than a high-yield savings account.** Go to https://Public.com/forwardguidance*26-week T-bill rate (as of 10/4/23) when held to maturity. Rate shown is gross of fees.**As compared to the national high-yield savings average of 3.43% (Source: Time.com/NextAdvisor as of 12/30/22).--Follow Lou: https://twitter.com/FedwatcherFollow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:54) Silicon Valley Bank, Reminiscent of The Savings & Loan Crisis?(06:08) Why Are Deposits Leaving Banks?(11:30) The Plumbing of Treasury Debt(21:34) The Reverse Repo Is A Danger To The Banking System(34:12) Public.com Ad(35:18) How The Fed Can Control Financial Stability Using Interest Rates(50:39) The Debt Ceiling(01:05:56) The Reserve Gap(01:07:43) The 2019 Repo Crisis: Everyone Has A Plan, Until They Get Punched In The Nose(01:13:57) Will Banking Turmoil Lead To A Credit Crunch?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, joins Jack Farley to share her data-driven investment outlook at a challenging time for global markets. Sonders argues that before the turmoil in the regional banking sector, the U.S. was already in a “rolling recession” where weakness rolled throughout different parts of the economy. Now, after the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (“SVB”) in early March, Sonders thinks an official recession (i.e. one declared as such by the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER), is more likely, and she says that she thinks a recession is “somewhat unavoidable.” Given these headwinds, Sonders’ investment outlook is that it could be a “bumpy ride” in the short-term. However, Sonders and Farley discuss the importance of a long-term outlook and how market timing very frequently underperforms buy-and-hold strategies. Filmed on April 4th, 2023.__Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Liz Ann Sonders on Twitter https://twitter.com/LizAnnSondersFollow Charles Schwab on Twitter https://twitter.com/CharlesSchwabFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Some of Liz Ann Sonders’ recent research at Charles Schwab:“Under Pressure: Fed Hikes in Face of Bank Turmoil”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting“2023 Quarterly Market Outlook: Fed on the Brink?” https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/quarterly-market-outlook“Another One Bites the Dust: Banking Saga Continues”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/another-one-bites-dust-banking-saga-continues“Caveat Emptor: Important Market Shifts Underway”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/caveat-emptor-important-market-shifts-underway“The Price You Pay: A Look at Equity Valuations”: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/price-you-pay-look-equity-valuations__Timestamps:(00:35) The Fed Has Broken Something(03:09) Rate Cuts Might Be Further Away Than The Market Thinks(05:58) Already In A "Rolling Recession"(17:37) Have The Odds Of A Severe Recession (Rather Than Mild) Increased After The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)?(19:59) Investment Outlook For Stocks(23:11) VanEck Ad(23:59) Equity Valuations: Are Stocks Cheap or Expensive?(33:37) Short-Term Outlook: "Some More Bumps In The Road"(36:12) Time In The Market vs Timing The Market(39:27) Liquidity and Gold(41:28) Sectors And Factors Leading The Stock Market(44:14) "Growth vs. Value" Is A False Choice(49:59) International Developed Markets and Emerging Markets__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Professor Emeritus of Economics at Leonard N. Stern School of Business, author and financial historian Dr. Richard Sylla joins the show for a discussion on one of his most widely studied areas... interest rates. After authoring "A History of Interest Rates", a book which examined over four millennia of interest rates trhoughout periods of inflation, financial crises' and recessions, there's no one better equipped to discuss the Fed's current tightening cycle and how it impacted banks such as SVB in the Fed's current quest to fight inflation. Just how severe is this current tightening cycle when compared to other times in history? According to Dr. Sylla, this is nothing new as "history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Referenced In The Show:A History of Interest Rates: https://www.amazon.co.uk/History-Interest-Rates-Wiley-Finance/dp/0471732834Alexander Hamilton on Finance, Credit, and Debt: https://www.amazon.com/Alexander-Hamilton-Finance-Credit-Debt/dp/0231184565Alexander Hamilton, Central Banker: Crisis Management During the U.S Financial Panic of 1792: https://w4.stern.nyu.edu/research/alexander_hamilton_central_banker.pdf--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissio... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place.As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:39) A Return To Normalcy For Interest Rates(05:10) How Interest Rate Rises Led To SVB's Collapse(09:24) The First Bank of The United States(13:36) Paul Volcker's Historic Interest Rate Rises(20:35) Why We Have Inflation Now... But Not Post 2008(28:03) Permissionless(29:06) The Fed's Between A Rock & A Hard Place(32:03) The Savings & Loan Crisis(37:41) All Signs Point Towards A Recession(44:59) Blockworks Research(45:59) What An Inverted Yield Curve Really Indicates(48:49) A Banking Panic Solution, Through The Eyes of Alexander Hamilton(57:03) How ZIRP Caused Problems In The Financial System--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

John Maxfield, banking specialist and author of the Maxfield on Banks Substack, joins Jack to discuss the history and future of the U.S. banking system. Drawing on his wide-ranging historical knowledge, Maxfield notes that when it comes to banks, failure is the norm, not the exception. Maxfield argues that the acute phase of the banking panic in the U.S. is likely over, as loan yields will rise and deposit flight will slow down. Maxfield makes the case that, paradoxically, a serious cause of bank failure is not just not enough liquidity: often banks fail because there was too much liquidity. Maxfield and Farley take an in-depth look at Silicon Valley Bank’s enormous influx in deposits, which more than tripled since the first quarter of 2020, which they used to buy an enormous amount of securities that lost value as the Fed raised rates. Filmed on April 3, 2023.____Follow John Maxfield on Twitter https://twitter.com/MaxfieldOnBanks“Maxfield on Banks” Substack: https://maxfieldonbanks.substack.com/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(03:14) "Failure Is The Rule, Not The Exception" When It Comes To Banking(06:51) Diagnosing Silicon Valley Bank's (SVB) Collapse(16:45) Excess Liquidity Is The Problem, Not The Solution(22:58) "Interest Rate Risk Can Be As Deadly As Credit Risk"(27:04) Permissionless(28:08) Some Banks' Unrealized Losses Exceed Book Value(36:22) Is The Bank Panic Over? (John Says Yes)(39:51) "Banks Will Always Make Money"(44:33) Will Banks Decrease Their Lending?(52:17) Blockworks Research(53:15) How Did Banks' Manage Their Interest Rate Risk?(58:02) Assumptions About Deposit Duration Play A Key Role In Asset Liability (Mis)Matching(01:05:03) About The Maxfield On Banks Substack(01:07:40) Parallel To The Savings & Loan Crisis(01:10:55) Big Banks Get Bailed Out, Small Banks Don't (Unfair?)(01:11:47) Executive Compensation And Bank Performance (An Inverse Relationship)(01:13:27) Bank Insolvency Is Not Necessarily A Death Sentence(01:21:01) What Banks Need To Learn From SVB's Collapse____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Peter Stella, Former Head of the IMF Central Banking Division, joins Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed and author at Fedguy.com, and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on:-what really causes inflation -monetarism, fiscal theory of the price level, and modern monetary theory (MMT)-the unrealized losses on the Fed’s balance sheet-why yield curve control likely won’t be necessary (or so Peter argues)-the longer the duration of a governments’ debt, the less inflation is required to inflate it away-when a central bank incurs unrealized losses, who “wins” and who “loses”? Filmed on March 29, 2023.____Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Joseph Wang’s writings: https://fedguy.com/Joseph’s latest piece, “Ameridollars”: https://fedguy.com/ameridollars/Peter Stella on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Stellar_ConsultPeter Stella’s work: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/“Do Central Banks Need Capital?” by Peter Stella: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/30/Do-Central-Banks-Need-Capital-2260Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023____Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:15) Peter Stella's Background At The International Monetary Fund (IMF)(03:55) Joseph Wang On The Flaws Of Monetarism(05:52) Milton Friedman: It's The Government That Prints Money(07:56) The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level(13:38) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)(24:12) Real Value Of U.S. Debt Is Lower Now Than March 2020(37:33) Permissionless(38:38) The Fed Has Huge Unrealized Losses On Its Balance Sheet(45:29) Details About The Fed's Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Purchases In 2020(51:51) Did The Fed Help Wealthy Homeowners Refinance Their Mortgages In 2020?(54:21) Blockworks Research Plug(55:22) When The Federal Reserve Has Unrealied Losses On Its Balance Sheets, Who Loses and Who Gains?(01:13:50) Joseph Wang's Summary Of This Conversation(01:15:08) Yield Curve Control and Potential Debt Death Spiral____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Halaris, President of real estate investment firm Metros Capital, joins Jack to share insight on the challenges commercial real estate faces after a surge in interest rates and the fall of two U.S. banks. The phrase “commercial real estate” is a catch-all terms that refers to offices, apartment buildings (“multi-family”), retail, and industrial spaces. Unlike residential real estate, which is typically financed with long-term fixed-rate mortgages, a lot of commercial real estate was financed with floating rate debt, which means that as interest rates rose last year, the interest expense of some commercial real estate developers rose dramatically. Halaris argues that the turmoil in the banking system will likely induce banks to tighten their lending, which would inflict further hardship onto commercial real estate, much of which is financed via smaller regional banks. Filmed on Tuesday, March 28, 2023.____Nick Halaris website: https://nickhalaris.com/Profit+ Subscribe Link: https://nickhalaris.beehiiv.com/Nick Halaris on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NickHalarisNick Halaris on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nick-halaris-4a25b93/____Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023____Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeyw____Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:25) What Is Commercial Real Estate?(03:20) Interest Rates Have A Huge Impact on Real Estate Valuations(11:48) "Commercial Real Estate Is In Serious Trouble"(16:58) Delinquency Rates Are Rising...(19:13) Real Estate Is No Longer An Inflation Hedge(22:45) Permissionless Ad(23:48) Real Estate "Cap Rates" And Why They Are So Often Misunderstood(26:53) "Accounting Games" In Real Estate(35:02) How Bank Turmoil Will Impact Real Estate(38:42) The End Game For Real Estate(44:30) "it's Really Hard To Get A Loan"(46:37) Prices Will Go Down More(48:36) Blockworks Research Ad(49:36) Silver Lining: Rates Could Go Down(53:33) Retail Real Estate (Shopping Malls, etc.)(54:39) The Housing Market Will Probably Remain Strong(59:29) Private Equity's Investment Into Housing(01:01:51) Nick Halaris' Newsletter, Profit Plus(01:04:25) Closing Thoughts On Rising Interest Rates____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Sir Paul Tucker, research fellow at The Harvard Kennedy School and former deputy governor of The Bank of England, joins Forward Guidance to discuss ideas from his latest book, “Global Discord: Values And Power In A Fractured World Order.” Tucker tells Jack Farley that China’s growing economic might and rejection of liberal values poses a challenge to the U.S.’ role as global hegemon, and he details ways to reinvigorate international cooperation during the current period of geopolitical strife. Tucker shares his views on the recent turmoil in the banking system, weighing on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the acute need for bank resolution that can maintain financial stability while winding down ailing banks. Tucker and Farley also discuss concepts such as the Triffin Dilemma, the offshore (“Eurodollar”) dollar system, and central banks’ role as lenders of last resort. __“Global Discord” from Princeton Press: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691229317/global-discordGlobal Discord on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Global-Discord-Values-Power-Fractured/dp/0691229317__About Paul Tucker: http://paultucker.me/resources/About Tucker’s work at The Harvard Kennedy School: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/fellows/research-fellows#sir_paul_tuckerMore about today’s guest:For over thirty years, Sir Paul Tucker was a central banker, and a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee from 2002. He was Deputy Governor from 2009 to late 2013, including serving on the Financial Policy Committee (vice chair) and Prudential Regulatory Authority Board (vice chair). He was knighted by Britain in 2014 for his services to central banking. Internationally, he was a member of the steering committee of the G20 Financial Stability Board, and chaired its Committee on the Resolution of Cross-Border Banks to solve “too big to fail”. Tucker was a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements, and was chair of the Basel Committee for Payment and Settlement Systems from April 2012. After leaving central banking, Tucker was chair of the Systemic Risk Council from December 2015 to August 2021. He now writes at the intersection of political economy and political philosophy as research fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government. In addition to “Global Discord,” Tucker is also the author of “ Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State” (2018).__Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:55) The Rise Of China Will Have Immense Consequences On A Global Scale(04:44) Shortcomings of Trade Policy and Enforcement(10:41) Downsides of U.S.' Trade Deficit(20:18) The Bretton Woods Regime(21:59) The Triffin Dilemma(26:32) The Eurodollar System(27:31) The Fed's Swap Lines In 2008(28:49) Importance of Multi-Disciplinary Understanding For Policymakers(31:17) The Debt Ceiling(21:27) Thucydides' Trap(25:57) The Contest Between China and The U.S. Is "Everywhere"(39:26) Document 9 of The Chinese Communist Party(45:29) Inflation(49:37) Regional Bank Failure In The U.S.(55:43) The Takeover Of Credit Suisse By UBS(01:02:49) Defining A "Bailout" As A Use Of Taxpayer Money(01:07:09) Bagehot's Dictum(01:15:31) Credit Suisse Contingent Convertible ("CoCo") Bonds(01:17:55) Tying Geopolitical And Banking Together__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack interviews Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James Financial, and Joseph Wang, author at https://fedguy.com/, for a conversation on how the recent banking turmoil has muddled the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting mission. Woodward, a banking veteran with a rare understanding of the regional banks’ investment portfolio, gives a glimpse into the interest-rate exposure (“duration”) of the mid-sized and community bank community that is unavailable by just looking at public filings.  Woodward argues that Silicon Valley Bank’s (SVB) fall was not due to its interest rate risk management and that the Federal Reserve is to blame. Wang vehemently (but very politely) disagrees and what ensues is a masterclass on the most salient issues facing the U.S. banking industry. Filmed on Thursday, March 23, 2023, a day after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.__Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 4.8% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance__Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:59) Joseph's Take On March Federal Reserve Meeting (FOMC)(04:59) Is The Fed To Blame For The Fall Of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)?(12:35) Available-For-Sale (AFS) vs. Held-To-Maturity (HTM) Accounting Treatment(26:16) Public.com Ad(27:20) Was Silicon Valley Bank's Lack of Interest Rate Hedges Negligent?(34:30) There's No Way To Hedge Perfectly"(41:10) Uninsured Deposit Base As A New Vulnerability For U.S. Banks(53:01) The Psychological Aspect of Bank Runs(57:07) Bernanke on The Great Depression: Bad Visuals Are Self-Fulfilling Prophecies(01:00:06) Should The FDIC Deposit Guarantee Be Raised?(01:02:39) Will Bank Turmoil Cause Banks To Curb Lending?(01:06:41) How Many More Times Will The Fed Hike (If At All)?(01:08:39) BTFP is NOT Quantitative Easing, Says Joseph Wang(01:10:13) Central Banking 101(01:14:22) Closing Thoughts__Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, we sit down with Michael Howell Managing Director at Cross Border Capita to discuss the most recent FOMC meeting. With a backdrop of banking turmoil, historic bond market volatility and above target inflation, how will Powell react to the recent market action? To find out, you'll have to tune in!____Follow Michael: https://twitter.com/crossbordercapFollow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPodFollow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023____Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeyw____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.