Forward Guidance

Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be “imminently” passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden.____Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (“Ahead Of The Heard”), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd And use code “Forward Guidance” at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. “Ahead of The Heard” typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week.To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsman’s institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-researchAnd use code “Blockworks” for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month. ____Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsmanFollow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/HalsrethinkFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Timestamps:(00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative(04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking?(05:48) Banking System(08:43) Commercial Real Estate(32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility(42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS(01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos—Referenced In The Show:Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective on Wartime Amendments to the Federal Reserve Act: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368342410_Making_a_Central_Bank_Out_of_the_Federal_Reserve_A_Historical_Perspective_on_Wartime_Amendments_to_the_Federal_Reserve_Act Fighting Financial Crises Learning from the Past Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo26527334.html—Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:19) Historial Comparisons To 2023's Banking Turmoil(02:37) The Difference Between Solvency & Liquidty In A Bank Run(07:17) Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve(11:42) The Role of Gold In The Federal Reserve's History(17:00) Why Did Gold Flee To The Fed In 1917?(22:57) Permissionless ad(24:00) The Federal Reserve: The Lender Of Last Resot(29:51) How Has The Banking System Developed Throughout U.S History?(35:21) The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank(38:11) The Bank Term Funding Program(41:14) All Roads Lead Back To Congress(46:50) Learning From The Lesson's Of The Great Depression(55:37) The Looming Debt Ceiling(58:19) Blockworks Research(59:20) The Trillion Dollar Coin—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023.Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacroFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:28) Patrick's 2022 Warnings About Banks(10:33) Credit Risks(15:49) Shadow Banking System(19:35) Permissionless(20:38) Loan Growth(29:17) Global Liquidity Is Collapsing(34:32) Foreign Banks Are Having Issues(37:20) The Pain Trade Is For The Dollar To Go Higher(40:11) Rate Hikes "An Economic War Crime"?(43:34) Commercial Real Estate(49:42) Bank Run Risks(56:14) Blockworks Research(57:16) Where Are Interests Rates Headed?(01:00:54) China(01:08:50) Closing Thoughts

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors. ____Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvigFollow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteDataFollow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderIncFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:27) Tracking Capital Flows(01:43) Where Is The Money Going?(19:53) The Dollar And The Euro(25:30) Blockworks Research(26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data?(38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys?(41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization(46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar(57:14) Permissionless(58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities(01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges. __Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettisFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:40) China's Economic Growth Model(18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China(26:01) Van Eck ad(26:51) Domestic Consumption In China(35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works(39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble(43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China(49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue(01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy(01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity?(01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S.(01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rd’s Federal Reserve’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks. Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBoothFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.(00:00) Intro(11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)?(15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put(25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell"(29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground"(34:30) Permissionless(35:34) The Balance Sheet(40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks(47:41) Blockworks Research(48:41) The Debt Ceiling(54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession"(58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar(59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine(01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are Evolving

Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of “Trillion Dollar Triage” joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023.---Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784Timiraos’ article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage”: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817---Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraosFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_---Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research joins Forward Guidance to break down the Federal Reserve’s meeting on May 3rd, during which Fed Chair Powell noted that “conditions in the banking sector have improved.” Shortly thereafter, shares of PacWest Bank ($PACW) plummeted.Bianco and Farley also explore whether this is the Fed’s last hike in interest rates, and how the consequences of the looming debt ceiling will impact the banking system and markets.Note: this interview started to filmed at 3:30pm ET on May 3rd, almost immediately after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference, but BEFORE the crash in $PACW (over 50%), which occurred shortly after 4:30pm ET. Bianco and Farley’s discussion of PacWest occurred before PacWest announced it was pursuing a strategic sale.__Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.__Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearchFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks___Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Josh Young Chief Investment Officer & Founder of Bison Interests joins the show for a deep dive into the oil and gas industry. After a record year in 2022 for oil & gas, with energy being the best performing sector, 2023 has sent investors on "a wild ride" with crude oil retracing gains from its high of around $120 to around $75.Josh walks through the relative performances of the oil majors, and the small/mid size cap companies he specializes in. As many oil & gas companies have restructured their balance sheets and paid down overhanging debt, is the stage set for an outperformance of the oil & gas companies that incurred tougher times throughout the previous decade. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!—Follow Josh: https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw—Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/—Referenced In The Show:The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy: https://www.amazon.com/Bottomless-Well-Twilight-Virtue-Energy-ebook/dp/B009TCWKLC —Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:21) A wild Ride In The Oil Market(05:34) Oil Companies Profitability vs A Decade Ago(15:22) Are O&G Companies Investing In R&D, Or Share Buybacks?(18:57) Natural Gas(23:58) Are Rising Production Costs Impacting O&G Companies?(28:50) Permissionless(29:53) Searching For Low Decline Producers In The Oil Market(33:28) Baytex Energy (BTE)(40:45) Josh's Oil Price Outlook(56:19) Blockworks Research(57:19) Investing In O&G Companies In The U.S & Canada vs Rest of World(01:08:03) Overrated O&G Companies In The Small & Mid Cap Industry—Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today First Republic, America’s 14th largest bank, was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) who sold the vast majority of the stranded assets to banking giant JPMorgan Chase & Co ($JPM). Jack welcomes two veteran bankers, Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, for an in-depth look at why First Republic and how the banking system can move on from today’s takeover.____Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalenFollow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careersUse code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:48) The "False Narrative" About First Republic(04:44) "The Bondholders Will Get Toasted First"(07:06) "We Just Need More Time"(09:54) "The Fed's Got To Cut"(11:52) Credit Availablity Has Already Come Down(15:03) Why Did The Fed Buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)?(19:35) Commercial Real Estate (CRE)(23:30) Mortgage REITs & Interest Rate Risk(37:36) "The Loss To The FDIC Will Grow”(40:55) Permissionless(41:58) Is The Fed Really To Blame For Bank Failures? (Jack Pushes Back)(52:58) The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)(55:38) Blockworks Research(56:37) Moral Hazard Argument About Deposit Insurance(01:05:51) Tease At Future Interviews On Forward Guidance____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.