Forward Guidance

Today, Jack speaks with two veteran bankers about bank lending, a key engine of the real economy, and where it is headed. John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, and Randy Woodward, managing director at Raymond James, join Forward Guidance to share how the rapid surge in interest rates has drastically changed the math for community and regional banks. Now that deposits are no longer free, banks must charge far higher rates on their loans (auto, mortgage, commercial, commercial real estate, etc.) in order to earn a commensurate return. Toohig notes that some that banks have NOT yet sufficiently raised their loan yields, to account for this surge in cost of funds. There are two potential reasons for this: first, loan officers are making loans that may not make economic sense because they are incentivized to do so and/or it is to a key client relationship; and second, because many in the banking industry expect that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates which will put a ceiling on funding costs. However, bank regulators (such as the FDIC) may be in the process of forcing some banks to realized losses. Filmed on June 8, 2023.____Follow John Toohig on Twitter https://twitter.com/RJWholeLoansToohig’s latest edition of “Let’s Talk Loans” on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/lets-talk-loans-vol-54-john-toohig/?trackingId=aQYzOQTGTamI1nI%2FRdRp4A%3D%3DFollow Randy Woodward on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheBondFreakFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(13:45) Liquidity In Seconday Loan Market(27:25) Permissionless(28:03) Commercial Real Estate(35:22) There's Something Far Scarier Than Higher Borrowing Costs(41:41) The Giant Flaw In The "Banks Don't Need Deposits Because They Create Deposits" Argument
44:38 Money Is Being Destroyed Right Now, That Means Less Lending"(51:49) Blockworks Research(52:49) Bankers Are Paying WAY More Attention To The Fed And Rates (And Nick Timiraos) Than They Were Pre-2020(57:29) Bank Regulators Are Encouraging Some Banks To Realize Losses(01:01:15) "Social Media Risk" For Banks(01:07:13) Why Don't The Banks Just Make Loans At Higher Rates?(01:10:34 Cracks Are Already Starting To Appear In Subprime Credit(01:14:37) Why Hasn't Credit Contraction Been Faster, Given These Headwinds?____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Today Jack is joined by an anonymous trader known only by their Twitter handle @Citrini7, who has the absolute “hottest hand” when it comes to picking Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks. Citrini is very optimistic about the boost that the adoption of AI will provide to semiconductor companies, data service providers, and optical fiber companies, and he describes in depth some of the stocks from his AI basket he thinks are most poised to benefit, which in aggregate are up ~50% this year.Quoting George Soros’ saying that, “when I see a bubble, I rush in to buy it,” Citrini thinks AI might prove to be a bubble, but that if it is a bubble, it is in the early stages. Filmed on June 2, 2023.Follow Citrini7 on Twitter https://twitter.com/Citrini7Citrini Substack https://citrini.substack.com/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:00:00 Intro03:51 Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) Already A Bubble?28:21 The Lipstick Effect32:50 How Can These Rich Valuations Be Justified?41:57 Permissionless42:34 The Losers of The Rise of Artificial Intelligence50:43 Blockworks Research

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has sued both Binance and Coinbase, and Casey Wagner, senior policy reporter at Blockworks, is here to break it all down.Recent Reporting by Casey Wagner on Blockworks:“Coinbase Put in House Hot Seat Hours After SEC Lawsuit Released”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-in-house-hot-seat“Regulation by Enforcement Is Unsustainable, CFTC Chair Tells Congress”: https://blockworks.co/news/regulation-by-enforcement-unsustainable“Coinbase Stock Tanks 16% Following SEC Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-stock-tanks-16-following-sec-lawsuit“SEC Labels 10 Tokens Securities in Binance Lawsuit”: https://blockworks.co/news/sec-10-tokens-securities____Follow Casey Wagner on Twitter https://twitter.com/caseywagnerrFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Vincent Daniel of Seawolf Capital returns to Forward Guidance to share his latest thinking on bank stocks, market structure, and long/short investing.Immortalized in “The Big Short,” Vincent’s interview with Jack and his partner Porter Collins in January 2022 can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_b_HCd0ir3k&t=10s____Today's show is sponsored by Public.com: Get a 5.4% yield when you open a government-backed Treasury Account by going to https://public.com/forwardguidance____Follow Vincent Daniel on Twitter https://twitter.com/VD718Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Timestamps:(00:00) The Current Setup(06:49) Did SVB Response Fuel Recent Stock Market Rally?(09:22) The Perils Of Shorting Stocks(13:07) Debt Ceiling Resolution(21:17) Public.com(22:21) Passive & Vol Targeting Funds(26:24) Outlook on Stocks(29:47) Importance of Stop-Losses(31:12) How Much Research Before Taking A Position?(32:33) Concentration Risk/Reward: How Many Positions?(34:10) Why Vincent (and Porter) Shorted Banks Before Silicon Valley Bank Collapse(39:31) Banks' Moats Are Less Valuable Now, Says Vincent(42:58) Bank Run Risk Is Higher Now Than During Great Financial Crisis(44:52) Core Tier 1 Is Nonsense(54:01) Private Equity(01:02:30) Can High Debt Levels Hanlde High Interest Rates?(01:06:09) Slaying The Inflation Dragon(01:07:57) Vincent's Views On Bank Stocks Going Forward(01:12:46) Energy Stocks(01:17:00) "The Fed Put Never Died”(01:19:19) Views On Recession Risk: "It's Hard For Me To See A Reflationary Boom"(01:21:52) Uranium____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Alex Etra Senior Macro Strategist at Exante Data & Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro join the show for a discussion on the path ahead for H2 2023. Reflecting on the record bond losses in 2022, Alex shares his outlook on what to expect in the second half of 2023 as bond fund managers experience inflows and tech related equities continue surging higher despite the bearish sentiment in the broader market. We then move on to some of the monetary plumbing implications amidst the debt ceiling resolution and what impact it could have on markets as the U.S Treasury looks to re fill is dwindling Treasury General Account. To hear all this & more. you'll have to tune in!--Referenced In The Show: Back to 2019: https://fedguy.com/back-to-2019/ Money: Inside and Out: https://moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/ --Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissio...Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Timestamps:(00:00) Preparing For June FOMC(05:23) Will The Fed Hike, Skip Or Cut?(07:25) Back To 2019(10:35) Permissionless(11:13) The Mechanics of The Treasury Cash-Futures Basis Trade(19:07) The Path Ahead In H2 2023(25:47) Reflecting On The Bond Markets Performance In 2022(34:21) Will A New Investor Class Replace Japanese Investors?(38:31) Equity Flows(43:46) Blockworks Research(44:46) Why Are Equity Markets Performing So Well In 2023?(51:51) The Mechanics of The U.S. Treasury, General Account(01:01:04) Quantitative Tightening: Is The Reverse Repo Heading Higher?(01:05:32) How Alex Tracks Market Flows--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Warren Mosler, founder of Valance Co., Inc. and author of “The 7 Deadly Innocent Frauds of Economic Policy,” is widely viewed as the intellectual godfather of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), a framework for understanding money and debt which underscores a government’s ability to print money to pay for goods and services without relying necessarily on borrowing or taxation. Mosler joins Forward Guidance to apply these ideas to today’s financial issues. He argues why a failure to raise the U.S. debt ceiling would be truly catastrophic, and he makes the case that the Fed’s rate hikes are actually contributing to inflation, rather than fighting it, because the government is printing more money in order to pay its debt. Filmed on May 30, 2023.____Follow Warren Mosler on Twitter https://twitter.com/wbmoslerFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Warren’s website: https://moslereconomics.com/Warren’s book and other writings: https://moslereconomics.com/mandatory-readings/____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.____(00:00) Risk Of Government Unwind Would Be Catastrophic(07:24) "Money Is Just A Series Of Dots Going On And Off In People's Bank Accounts"(14:52) The Federal Reserve Prints Money(19:07) The Government Spends First, Taxes and Borrows Second(31:23) Permissionless(32:01) Quantitative Easing Does Not Have An Actual Effect On The Economy(33:17) High Interest Rates Mean More Deficit Spending(48:29) Challenging The Narrative of Volcker As The Slayer Of Inflation Dragon(54:00) Challenging The Wage Price Spiral(01:01:13) Currency Itself Is A "Public Monopoly"(01:04:04) We Are NOT In A Recession, Says Mosler(01:11:21) Is The Solution To Inflation To Cut Government Spending?(01:16:30) Blockworks Research(01:17:28) The Debt Ceiling(01:24:08) The Dollar

Joseph Wang of FedGuy.com and Dominique Dwor-Frecaut of Macro Hive return to Forward Guidance to update listeners on the U.S. debt ceiling, which may be breached as early as June. Filmed on May 25, 2023.To access a 40% discount to an annual subscription of Macro Hive Prime, go to www.macrohive.com/jack.____Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12Follow Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Twitter https://twitter.com/firstkicktiresFollow Macro Hive on Twitter https://twitter.com/Macro_HiveFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_fJoseph’s latest piece on FedGuy.com: https://fedguy.com/probing-lclor/Joseph Wang YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@Fedguy12____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.Timestamps:(00:00) The Debt Ceiling(10:09) What Happens When The Treasury Runs Out Of Money?(18:20) Will The Fed Come To Rescue? (Yes, Say Dominique & Joseph)(27:19) What Counts As A "Default"?(32:21) MacroHive(32:57) How Might The Market React?(36:05) Are These "Magical Measures" Just A Temporary Fix?(37:50) Payment Prioritization(41:45) U.S. Treasury's Non-Marketable Debt Will Play A Key Role(50:02) Potential For "Huge Liquidity Drain" As Treasury Plans On Issuing $1 Trillion In Bills Over The Next Six Months(01:01:10) Dominique and Joseph's Views On The Economy(01:08:20) Joseph's Updated Views On Banks

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this year’s huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023.____Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_RptFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/____Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:https://rb.gy/5weeywMarket commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos____Timestamps:(00:00) Jason's Early Years In Hong Kong(01:47) "Too Much Leverage Is A Bad Thing"(04:52) Importance of Journaling Your Trades(07:37) The Essence Of Successful Contrarianism(09:54) Why Jason Has Been Bullish On Stocks All Year(14:42) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report(17:54) Why Jason Is Short Gold(22:28) Permissionless(23:03) Futures Positioning vs. Positioning Of The Whole Market(28:22) Why Are Speculators Wrong At Extremes?(34:20) Why CTAs Performed So Poorly This Year (Commodity Trading Advisor)(40:22) Blockworks Research(41:22) You Need Confirmation From The Market(46:38) Long Stocks, Short Gold Remains High Conviction Trade(48:57) Stop Losses(50:36) Bank Stocks(51:55) Why Jason Is Short The Euro(53:12) Risk of Recession and Debt Ceiling(01:09:26) Why Vast Majority Of Investors Don't Beat The Index____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to.Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusherFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos--Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:17) Paul's Oil Market Outlook(10:25) Oil Companies Profitability(11:37) Why Is Oil Demand Lower Than Expected In 2023?(17:40) Why Is This Oil Market So Tough To Trade?(19:42) The Four Structural Drivers Of Oil Prices(22:52) Permissionless(23:55) Are Oil Equties Cheap?(35:28) The Political Cycle Is Shorter Than The Energy Cycle(39:18) How Does Oil Perform During A Recession?(44:44) The Economics Of ESG(47:03) Blockworks Research(48:02) Warren Buffett Continues Buying $OXY(54:09) The Correlation Between Bank Stocks & Oil(57:26) Sankey Research(01:02:23) Small & Mid Size Oil Companies In Canada--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history.Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023.____Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidanceto access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.____Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_usFollow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_____Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(06:37) Right Now, The Main Issue Is Interest Rate Risk(12:56) What Causes A Bank Run?(17:55) Are Bank Runs Faster In An Age of Mobile Banking?(21:55) Van Eck Ad(22:45) Money Market Funds and The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Where A Lot Of Bank Money Is Going(25:33) Risk Of Further Big Bank Consolidation(29:51) Best Time To Shut Down A Bank Is Friday Night(31:10) Federal Reserve Lending To Insolvent Institutions Increases The FDIC's Cost To Resolve Failed Banks(32:53) How To Know When To Shut Down A Failing Bank(34:51) "I Was Surprised At The Biden Administration's Level Of Involvement"(37:12) The Systemic Risk Determination, Explained(42:56) 2018 Loosening Of Regulation of Regional Banks(47:35) Forcing Banks To Raise More Equity (i.e. sell stock)(49:31) The Federal Reserve's Role As Bank Regulator____Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.