Forward Guidance

On this episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Louis Camhi in this special episode all about SPACs (special purpose acquisition companies), which are basically empty shell companies that go public in order to buy another company. Recently, the performance of SPACs has been in the red because they've become a vehicle for speculation. But Louis argues that if you redeem the SPACs and get the money back, it's basically like a bond, pointing out the similarities and demystifying this often misunderstood asset class. You won't want to miss this!Follow Louis Camhi on Twitter https://twitter.com/valwithcatalystFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(12:43) What is a PIPE? (Private Investment Equity)(15:10) What Is A SPAC Sponsor? (28:34) Current Opportunity Set Within SPACs(33:00) "Warrants Are The Truth"(35:26) Shorting SPACs(48:52) The Donlad Trump SPAC (DWAC)(50:05) More Aggressive SPAC Strategies(53:40) SPAC Arbitrage and Buy Writes(56:10) Characteristics of SPAC Holders(1:07:12) Where Is The Money Coming From?--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, Nick Timiraos joins Jack Farley to talk about the economy and the Federal Reserve; how has it tightened financial conditions and what are they doing to combat the period of inflation we are currently facing? Timiraos breaks down the concept of Forward Guidance, and explains how to think about forthcoming rate hikes as well as the ongoing quantitative tightening (QT).Timiraos is the Chief Economics Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and author of Trillion Dollar Triage. He focuses on the economy and The Federal Reserve.Follow Nick Timiraos on Twitter https://twitter.com/NickTimiraosFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nicholas Glinsman, CEO & CIO at EvoCapital LLC and Harald Malmgren, owner of Malmgren Global LLC, join Jack Farley to discuss the slowing economy: the causes, factors and leaders behind the market. Do leaders like Powell want a recession? Malmgren seems to believe so even though they wouldn't admit to it. Entering a deep recession before midterm elections can be critical in helping kill inflation.--Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/HalsrethinkFollow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman/Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/Use code GUIDANCE250 to get $250 off tickets (Only available this week!)--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(01:01) A Slowing Economy(06:13) Why Is The Economy Slowing So Rapidly?(10:38) Powell, Yellen, and Biden(15:20) How High Will The Fed Hike?(19:39) Liquidity and Volatility (28:37) Reasons for Deglobalization(36:05) The Crypto World(37:59) Harald's View on Long Term Commodities(42:18) China(48:36) Centralization in Economic Growth(51:59) China Is Running Out of Dollars(57:48) The Dollar Milkshake(1:08:05) President Biden's Legacy--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Tracy Shuchart, Partner and Global Energy & Materials Strategist at Intelligence Quarterly, joins Jack Farley to talk about all things oil: how different parts of the world are affected by price spikes, supply and demand and other commodities.Why has the price of oil dropped? Looking at detailed charts, Shuchart goes over the oil market in countries such as Russia.--Follow Tracy Shuchart on Twitter https://twitter.com/chigrlFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:51) Looking at Extreme Oil Corrections(04:25) Current State of the European Energy Markets(06:00) Will Russia Turn Off Europe's Gas?(11:36) Economic Slowdown Playing a Role in Destroying Demand(14:09) Structural Supply Deficit(16:25) Why Is the Price of Oil Collapsing(23:00) Why are Corporations Making so Much Money?(24:30) Comparing Profit Margins(26:45) Tracy's View on Oil Equities and Sensitive Commodities(31:40) The Shorter Term(33:22) Commodities(35:47) Market Currencies in the Eye of the Storm(37:34) Thoughts on Natural Gas, Oil, and Other Disallates(39:30) Coal(41:03) Hedging Issues(43:00) Overrated Equities Within Commodities(48:35) Solar and Wind Stocks(49:43) Stocks Affected by Inflation(53:50) Recessions in the US and Europe--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Kyrill Asatur, Co-Founder and CEO at Centerfin, joins Jack Farley to talk about stocks, macro and the .com bubble. Asatur explains how important the services Centerfin offers because they have exclusive access to funds that retail investors normally don’t have.What are some of the common behaviorial mistakes investors make? Working with institutional investors for almost 20 years, Asatur says individuals are prone to the same behaviors as retail investors.--Follow Kyrill Asatur on Twitter https://twitter.com/wallsthobbesFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(00:36) Macro at Centerfin(03:04) Decisions of an Individual Investor(08:55) Kyrill's View on Macro and the Fed(18:00) Stocks and the Dot Com Bubble(22:41) Centerfin's Accessibility to Funds(30:30) Distressed Bonds(32:41) Thinking About Size(38:45) Private Equity and Venture Capital(41:55) Common Behaviorial Mistakes Investors Make(44:46) What's Happening at Centerfin?(47:21) Kyrill's View on Crypto(53:36) Macro Hedge Funds--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Nick Reece, Vice President of Research at Merk Investments, joins Jack Farley to share his outlook on the business cycle. He goes through a checklist of topics to dive deeper into including inflation, unemployment rates, mortgage rates and more.Are we currently facing a recession? According to data that the Business Cycle Dating Committee uses, Reece seems to not believe so. But that’s not to say that the US will not go through another recession at some point. Reece explains once job reports come out, we can determine economic projections.Filmed on July 7, 2022.--Follow Nick Reece on Twitter https://twitter.com/nicholastreeceFollow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidanceFollow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(00:35) Nick's Outlook of the Business Cycle(11:13) Getting the Federal Reserve In Trouble(18:18) Expectations on Gas and Inflation(21:28) Unemployment and Inflation in the Cycle(28:54) Bit.com Ad(29:25) Recession on a Global Scale(32:10) PMIs(37:35) The Fed's Attempt to Combat Inflation(45:20) Where Priorities are Placed at the Federal Reserve(46:15) Projections for the Business Cycle(49:17) Asset Allocation(58:15) Looking at the Price to Earnings Ratio(1:00:45) Looking at Liquidity(1:04:58) Are We In A Recession?(1:09:58) Investments Nick Is Excited About--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Link to Rick Rule’s Symposium on Natural Resource Investing: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumofNaturalResourceInvesting#/?affl=BlockWorksRick Rule, veteran natural resource investor and former CEO of Sprott Inc., an investment firm with over 20 Billion in assets under management, joins Jack to share his current outlook on the commodity complex as well as several lessons he has learned over the course of his career. Lesson #1: don’t overstay your welcome. When the price of a stock is assuming a price for the commodity it produces that is higher than you think is sustainable, it might be time to ring the register.Does the recent jittery price action mean a recession is in the cards? Perhaps so. But Rule still believes that underinvestment in production will make a durable commodity bull market very likely. Rule explains his outlook on natural gas, oil, copper, iron, and Uranium, and shares his opinion on several natural resource stocks from all around the globe.Filmed on July 5, 2022.--Follow Rick Rule on Twitter https://twitter.com/RealRickRuleFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_--Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--(00:00) Introduction(01:29) Commodity Thesis(04:20) Globally Synchronized Recession(10:15) What Matters More - Supply Or Demand?(14:52) Oil (26:23) The Energy Crisis In Europe(35:20) Natural Resource Symposium(39:44) Greatest Lessons Learned(48:53) Uranium(55:00) Natural Gas(57:07) Specific Stocks(1:01:50) Canadian Oil Stocks(1:04:58) Copper and Iron(1:07:32) Hedging(1:13:10) Gold--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Emil Kalinowski, Co-Host of Eurodollar University, joins Jack Farley on Forward guidance to talk about the current economy in which Kalinowski describes as “the silent depression.” Kalinowski and Farley exchange views on whether the Eurodollar system controls the Fed or the other way around.--Follow Emil Kalinowski on Twitter https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(00:30) The World's Third Depression(14:25) Recession Trends(16:08) Reasons For Current State of Depression(24:25) Banker Greed(30:28) Bit.com Ad(31:00) Speculation During A Depression(34:31) Inflation(44:23) The Euro Dollar System(51:20) Lending With the Euro Dollar System(53:29) Federal Reserve's Role in the Economy(1:06:19) Emil's Predictions for the Next 6 Months--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "Forward Guidance", Jack Farley is joined by Victoria Greene the Chief Investment Officer at G Squared Private Wealth. After a confusing year for many investors, Victoria joins the show to asses current market conditions. Reflecting on the past 10 years of stock market performance, Victoria describes why now is not a "buy the dip" scenario. After seeing exuberance in certain equities, Victoria explains why she is more interested in value equities as we undergo Fed tightening, recession risk and market liquidity issues. To hear Victoria's thoughts, you'll have to tune in!--Follow Victoria Greene on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/victoria-greene-cfa-b51521119/Follow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/=-(00:00) Introduction(00:20) What is G Squared Private Wealth(07:20) Shifting From Growth to Value In 2021(11:42) Why 2022 Isn't A "Buy The Dip" Scenario(17:44) Current Market Liquidity (28:02) More Pain To Come For Unprofitable Technology Companies(33:13) VC, Private Equity & SPACs(40:50) Risk of Recession(46:58) Final Thoughts--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Ronald Stöferle and Mark Valek of Incrementum AG are pioneers in the world of hard assets, stern devotees of gold and Bitcoin, and deep skeptics about the sustainability of debt-based monetary systems. They join Jack to explain why a new era of stagflation has already begun, one in which inflation (“the wolf”) and a striking economic downturn (“the bear”) conspire to wreak havoc on the 60/40 portfolio and beguile central bankers all around the world.Ronnie and Mark share their near-term outlook on gold and Bitcoin, and explain why they think the Federal Reserve will have little choice but to reverse course as economic growth falls rapidly.--Follow Mark Valek on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkValekFollow Ronnie Stoeferle on Twitter https://twitter.com/RonStoeferleFollow Jack on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/--Referenced In The Show: 2022 In Gold We Trust report: https://ingoldwetrust.report/igwt/?lang=en--Bit.com is a full-suite cryptocurrency exchange launched by Matrixport, an integrated financial services firm headquartered in Singapore. Since August 2020, Bit.com has been online supporting the spot, perpetual, futures, fixed income and options products, with a particular highlight being pioneers to launch BCH options. Bit.com is the second-largest in the BTC and ETH options market.Call to action: For any further enquiry, please contact vip@bit.com.Sign up URL: https://bit.ly/3KlgLR3App download URL: https://bit.ly/3xer6uI--(00:00) Introduction(00:28) Background(06:10) The Fed Put And The Everything Bubble(26:14) Gold and Bitcoin, Going Back In Time(40:45) Bit.com(41:16) Bitcoin Near-Term Outlook(54:32) Gold Near-Term Outlook(1:03:10) What If The Fed Doesn't Pivot?(1:14:00) Counterparty Risk--Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.