Disorder

When it comes to Russia, Trump’s America appears on the verge of a major foreign policy U-turn. A couple of weeks ago, Trump called Zelenskyy a dictator and lyingly claimed that Ukraine had started the war. Then there was the February 28 ‘Oval Office Ambush’ heard round the world. Don’t forget that after years of isolating and sanctioning Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Team Trump met face to face with the Russian Foreign Minister in Saudi and now appears ready to do direct business with Russia and to be actively seeking to humiliate the Ukrainians. Despite these worrying moves, at the moment, the U-turn remains hypothetical… all words, not yet binding actions. So… how seriously should we take this perspective shift? Does the ‘Vance/Trump Oval Office Ambush’ change everything? And what are the implications for Europe and its allies if America actually switches sides to support Russia long term? To discuss this perilous moment, we’re joined again by Sir Bill Browder, a successful investor, a globally acclaimed author, and a famous philanthropist/humanitarian advocate. Browder’s tireless advocacy for holding dictators and their henchman to account is widely known. He was a guest on the Disorder programme in Ep 26, a few days after his friend Alexei Navalny was murdered by Putin. [NB: the interview at the core of this episode was recorded on Feb 26 before the Oval Office Trump/Zelenskyy/Vance meeting.]   Today, Jason and Sir Bill discuss the transactional nature of Trump 2.0 and the seek to work out whether the recently announced Ukraine mineral deal actually amounts to a hill of beans. Browder emphasizes the unpredictability of the situation, the moral implications of Trump’s proposed U-turn. Finally: as they Order the Disorder, Bill and Jason discuss the practicalities of how to turn confiscate currently frozen Russian assets and use them to fund Ukrainian defence. Producer: George McDonaghExecutive Producer: Neil Fearn Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Show Notes Links: Jason’s substack on the the Oval Office Trump/Vance ambush of Zelenskyy: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/p/he-may-not-be-a-russian-agent-but For a podcast produced out of Kyiv and dedicated just to the War in Ukraine: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/history-in-the-making-the-war-in-ukraine/id1752915858 Watch Bloomberg Editor Javier Blas on the fact that Ukraine doesn’t have any significant rare earths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=nqJ6Vgetyn8&t=23s&fbclid=IwY2xjawIuZ8ZleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfHqQQ2oA1u0f9dwlY57utRKDAlMk3uustcJ_QaiEBTeO2Duhzu5d1guUA_aem_CogDpEa6G7WcwC-7R5q6DQ Read the FT explainer of the US-Ukraine Mineral deal: https://www.ft.com/content/1890d104-1395-4393-a71d-d299aed448e6 Listen to our previous episode with Sir Bill Browder: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece  Read Sir Bill’s piece calling for Russian asset seizure:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14418689/UK-Europe-Russia-frozen-billions-Ukraine-noble-cause.html And his article co-authored with a leading Ukranian lawyer, Yulia Ziskina calling for seizure of Russia’s state assets: https://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2024-11-22/if-trump-cuts-ukraine-aid-the-west-should-seize-russian-assets Watch United States has ‘abandoned Ukraine’ | Bill Browder https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImN1fFJKHIc For more on illicit funds and foreign interference, listen to our recent episode with Peter Geoghegan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a7b4de27e0e05e297d97a505357d7050 Part 1 & 2 with Tom Burgis on the issue of UK’s permissiveness over foreign political financing https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b / https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/2ccf0f088b7679b5b053679466f6a42d Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The hosts dive into pressing listener questions about the UK's role in global politics and the lasting impact of Brexit. They discuss how Keir Starmer might navigate the UK's future with the EU amidst rising political tensions. The conversation also takes a critical look at the ramifications of tax breaks for billionaires, emphasizing the need to follow the money to understand today's societal challenges. Lastly, they tackle the political distractions that mask deeper issues of inequality and corruption.

Description: As Trump and his cronies attempt to tear down all the checks and balances which have traditionally governed how the Executive relates to other branches of American governance, especially over the issue of impoundment, will the Courts or Congress genuinely stand up? If they don’t, or are unable to, is America facing a genuine constitutional crisis? Or is the issue not so much a constitutional crisis but a coordination one - and because we’re in an era of peak disorder – Congress, the Courts, the Dems, popular opposition, protesters, Lincoln Project people, business advocates of non-monopolistic competition – aren’t able to coordinate coherently enough to make a difference? Also why are there not massive popular protests across America, or is now not the right time for them?  This week, Jason and Alex unpack these issues and more as they try to navigate listeners through the choppy seas of peak Disorder washing over the world. They reflect on the impact of recent Trump policies to defund USAID and undermine Ukraine, debating whether there’s any real coherent end goal to these radical policies beyond strewing Disorder. They also debate whether Trump’s America First agenda makes America stronger or weaker. Jason explains the importance of Russell Vought within Trump’s team, while arguing that Neo-populism isn’t actually about any real solutions or making America Stronger, but is merely about increasing the ‘Disorder and Distraction quotient’ to keep the Neo-populists in power.  Meanwhile, Alex and Jason argue that the Democratic Party needs to coalesce around a single ‘leader of the opposition’ type-figure to prosecute the case against Trump’s actions. They also dive into Lala-land with their alter-egos, Xela Llah Llah and Nosaj Kcap. They finish not by Ordering the Disorder, but by diagnosing exactly why the world is living through peak Disorder.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack (for free, or get the PAID version to attend our March 11th event at RUSI): https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links To examine the real architect of the Disorder, listen to the Today Explained episode about Russell Vought https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-explained/id1346207297?i=1000693687429   To grasp the constitutional implications of what is transpiring, listen to the excellent 538 podcast with Galen Druke interviewing constitutional law professor Peter Shane https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/trumps-theory-of-presidential-power/id1077418457?i=1000693800713   Read more from RUSI: by Jack Watling ‘US Clarity Underscores Ukraine’s Peril’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/us-clarity-underscores-ukraines-peril  Also by Jack but in the Guardian: ‘As the US walks away, Europe needs to step up for Ukraine. But does it have the will?’, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/16/us-europe-ukraine-russia-peace-analysis   And from Neil Melvin (our guest on our March 11 live recording) ‘Securing Ukraine is the UK’s Challenge, but It Needs to be Done Right’, https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/securing-ukraine-uks-challenge-it-needs-be-done-right  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defense minister and academic in defense technologies, shares insights on European security dynamics post-Munich Security Conference. He discusses the confusion in Europe's defense priorities amid shifting U.S. commitments and the urgent need for strategic unity against Russian aggression. Tagarev also explores Ukraine's mineral resources and concerns about exploitation versus cooperation, emphasizing the importance of stronger security guarantees. His expertise sheds light on rethinking defense strategies in a volatile geopolitical landscape.

Join Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at RUSI and former national security official, as he explores Britain's military preparedness amid global tensions. He discusses the significant role of AI in modernizing defenses and the ethical implications involved. The conversation also highlights the challenges in military procurement, revealing the gaps in communication between government and public regarding foreign policy. Delve into the complexities of Britain's potential to maintain its status as a global player in an increasingly chaotic world.

Peter Geoghegan, an Irish investigative journalist and author of 'Democracy for Sale,' joins Jane Kinninmont to explore the evolving landscape of political influence. They discuss how financial power shapes political narratives, focusing on super donors and the corrosive impact of anonymous donations. Geoghegan emphasizes the role of social media algorithms in spreading disorder and the urgent need for transparency in governance. The conversation culminates in calls for reforms, including capping individual political donations to safeguard democracy.

The chaos of neopopulist politics and its disruptive tactics takes center stage. The hosts dive into the art of distraction, highlighting how crucial issues like tariffs can get overshadowed by sensational news. They analyze the current state of leadership and the implications of U.S. political dynamics on international relations. The controversial idea of resettling Palestinians sparks a deeper discussion about the complexities of foreign policy. Finally, the challenges of global trade amidst rising tensions and disunity among allies are explored.

In this episode, Jason and Alex tackle some probing listener questions. They return to a theme from previous episodes (especially the previous episode with Marcel Dirsus): whether today’s autocratic regimes (China, Russia, Iran) are actually as strong as they appear or might be weaker than we imagine. In response to multiple listen questions on this theme, Alex and Jason debate the cultural and economic missteps of the center-left and the importance of addressing real voter concerns about the pace of social and culture change in the face of rising populism.  Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links  For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast   Alex’s article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky   Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f   Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e   Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934  Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

During his second inaugural speech, Trump declared January 20th, 2025 as Liberation Day. His indoor inauguration kept the hoi polloi of the MAGA world literally out in the cold. Inside, the Rotunda was filled with billionaires and family members. Trump’s speech screamed performative sound and fury. "For many years, a radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens, while the pillars of our society lay broken and seemingly in complete disrepair." He then said without a hint of joking, “I was saved by God to make America great again.”  But beyond the pomp and circumstance, what meaningful actions is Trump taking in his first days in office?   Here at the Disorder programme, we try to help Order the Disorder by separating the performative sound and fury of Trump 2.0 from its actual meaningful actions. Jason’s hunch is that much of Trump 2.0 will be Kabuki theatre, as many of Trump’s so-called signature policies are things that he cannot enact as they violate the constitution, but a large implication of his overall programme is to foster deliberate disorder making the US completely different from other markets on things like EVs, oil and gas exploration, manufacturing, worker safety, and regulation, in general.  To break it all down, in this episode, Jason and Alex reflect on the implications of Trump's pronouncements, the combination of lofty Presidential rhetoric mixed with Trump’s standard American carnage imagery, why previous POTUSs and VPs showed up for the Inauguration, and the impact of Trump's executive orders. They also look at the ceasefire in the Middle East and examine if similar tactics might actually work with Russia/Ukraine.   Plus: the depressing and corrosive precedent of Biden's pardons, the shift in Silicon Valley's political allegiance, the role of BitCoin and AI on the American economy, the dynamics between the UK and US, and the role of the UK in a Trumpian World… Why can’t Starmer step up and be a mega Orderer?  To Order the Disorder, the pair suggest that Europe and aligned powers get their act together and start mega ordering, without the US in tow. The show concludes as Jason and Alex postulate that constraining Trump will not happen from external forces, but maybe just maybe there is a potential for the excesses of Trumpism to be contained or managed by internal forces within the Republican Party.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links  For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast   More on Trump’s pardons for Jan 6th rioters https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/opinion/trump-pardons-bolton-jan-6.html   More on the Hamas-Israel ceasefire https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/world/middleeast/hamas-gaza-israel-cease-fire.html   Hear Jason on The Bunker - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934   Jason was interviewed by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 2022, Nina Jankowicz was appointed to a brand new role within the US Government – Executive Director of the DHS's Disinformation Governance Board, tasked with tackling disinformation. Within weeks, she was the target of a mass disinformation campaign – driven primarily by Fox News – that put her life, family and career at risk.  In today’s episode, Nina joins Arthur Snell to tell that story – and look at the role of dis- and mis-information around the globe. If the US under Trump turns into a deliberate disorderer in the information space, who will be left to order? There is an argument that medium powers like the UK, Brazil and the EU will hold the key to stemming the tide.  Nina is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but in the early 2020s, she became better known as an expert on disinformation. In 2022, she was appointed by the Biden administration to the Disinformation Governance Board, part of the United States Department of Homeland Security. But after Fox attacked her personally, the role was pulled. Since then, she has worked in various NGOs and in other foundations, and her current work is with American Sunlight, which tries to counteract disinformation by providing clear information and research to Americans.  In her conversation with Arthur, she shares insights into the challenges of combating misinformation in the current political landscape, the role of media and big tech in amplifying disinformation, and the implications for democracy. Plus: the duo discuss shifting dynamics within the Republican Party regarding Russia, Elon Musk's influence, the rise of deepfake technology, and the gendered dimension to the violence that permeates online spaces.   And then as they try to Order the Disorder, they look at Brazil as a place where disinformation regulation is starting to work, the importance of information literacy, and what’s been done educationally in Ukraine, plus – could smaller, stronger online communities be the answer?  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links For more on Nina visit https://www.ninajankowicz.com/   For a CBS explainer on what happened to Nina and the role played by Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=64&v=z6havT5C9_M&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2F   Follow Arthur’s pod Behind The Lines https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5   Read recent report from the American Sunlight Project on Deepfake Pornography Targeting Members of Congress https://www.americansunlight.org/updates/deepfake-pornography-targeting-members-of-congress    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices