Disorder

Todor Tagarev, former Bulgarian defense minister and academic in defense technologies, shares insights on European security dynamics post-Munich Security Conference. He discusses the confusion in Europe's defense priorities amid shifting U.S. commitments and the urgent need for strategic unity against Russian aggression. Tagarev also explores Ukraine's mineral resources and concerns about exploitation versus cooperation, emphasizing the importance of stronger security guarantees. His expertise sheds light on rethinking defense strategies in a volatile geopolitical landscape.

Join Matthew Savill, Director of Military Sciences at RUSI and former national security official, as he explores Britain's military preparedness amid global tensions. He discusses the significant role of AI in modernizing defenses and the ethical implications involved. The conversation also highlights the challenges in military procurement, revealing the gaps in communication between government and public regarding foreign policy. Delve into the complexities of Britain's potential to maintain its status as a global player in an increasingly chaotic world.

Peter Geoghegan, an Irish investigative journalist and author of 'Democracy for Sale,' joins Jane Kinninmont to explore the evolving landscape of political influence. They discuss how financial power shapes political narratives, focusing on super donors and the corrosive impact of anonymous donations. Geoghegan emphasizes the role of social media algorithms in spreading disorder and the urgent need for transparency in governance. The conversation culminates in calls for reforms, including capping individual political donations to safeguard democracy.

The chaos of neopopulist politics and its disruptive tactics takes center stage. The hosts dive into the art of distraction, highlighting how crucial issues like tariffs can get overshadowed by sensational news. They analyze the current state of leadership and the implications of U.S. political dynamics on international relations. The controversial idea of resettling Palestinians sparks a deeper discussion about the complexities of foreign policy. Finally, the challenges of global trade amidst rising tensions and disunity among allies are explored.

In this episode, Jason and Alex tackle some probing listener questions. They return to a theme from previous episodes (especially the previous episode with Marcel Dirsus): whether today’s autocratic regimes (China, Russia, Iran) are actually as strong as they appear or might be weaker than we imagine. In response to multiple listen questions on this theme, Alex and Jason debate the cultural and economic missteps of the center-left and the importance of addressing real voter concerns about the pace of social and culture change in the face of rising populism.  Then the Disorder programme pushes out the envelope a bit exploring: the significance of secrecy in intelligence and diplomacy, the political realignment of blue-collar workers, and the looming threat of a cryptocurrency bubble.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links  For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast   Alex’s article on the resemblance of Donald Trump to a Tituskhy: https://www.bylinesupplement.com/p/donald-trump-is-assembling-a-titushky   Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f   Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e   Hear Jason on The Bunker talking about post-Assad Syria and the Middle East in the age of Trump - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934  Jason was interviewed about backgammon and Gambling regulation by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

During his second inaugural speech, Trump declared January 20th, 2025 as Liberation Day. His indoor inauguration kept the hoi polloi of the MAGA world literally out in the cold. Inside, the Rotunda was filled with billionaires and family members. Trump’s speech screamed performative sound and fury. "For many years, a radical and corrupt establishment has extracted power and wealth from our citizens, while the pillars of our society lay broken and seemingly in complete disrepair." He then said without a hint of joking, “I was saved by God to make America great again.”  But beyond the pomp and circumstance, what meaningful actions is Trump taking in his first days in office?   Here at the Disorder programme, we try to help Order the Disorder by separating the performative sound and fury of Trump 2.0 from its actual meaningful actions. Jason’s hunch is that much of Trump 2.0 will be Kabuki theatre, as many of Trump’s so-called signature policies are things that he cannot enact as they violate the constitution, but a large implication of his overall programme is to foster deliberate disorder making the US completely different from other markets on things like EVs, oil and gas exploration, manufacturing, worker safety, and regulation, in general.  To break it all down, in this episode, Jason and Alex reflect on the implications of Trump's pronouncements, the combination of lofty Presidential rhetoric mixed with Trump’s standard American carnage imagery, why previous POTUSs and VPs showed up for the Inauguration, and the impact of Trump's executive orders. They also look at the ceasefire in the Middle East and examine if similar tactics might actually work with Russia/Ukraine.   Plus: the depressing and corrosive precedent of Biden's pardons, the shift in Silicon Valley's political allegiance, the role of BitCoin and AI on the American economy, the dynamics between the UK and US, and the role of the UK in a Trumpian World… Why can’t Starmer step up and be a mega Orderer?  To Order the Disorder, the pair suggest that Europe and aligned powers get their act together and start mega ordering, without the US in tow. The show concludes as Jason and Alex postulate that constraining Trump will not happen from external forces, but maybe just maybe there is a potential for the excesses of Trumpism to be contained or managed by internal forces within the Republican Party.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links  For more on our Partnership with RUSI: https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-announces-partnership-disorder-podcast   More on Trump’s pardons for Jan 6th rioters https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/opinion/trump-pardons-bolton-jan-6.html   More on the Hamas-Israel ceasefire https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/23/world/middleeast/hamas-gaza-israel-cease-fire.html   Hear Jason on The Bunker - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000685022934   Jason was interviewed by Sigma one of the leading Magazines in the e-gaming space, Sigma: https://sigma.world/news/the-art-of-risk/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In 2022, Nina Jankowicz was appointed to a brand new role within the US Government – Executive Director of the DHS's Disinformation Governance Board, tasked with tackling disinformation. Within weeks, she was the target of a mass disinformation campaign – driven primarily by Fox News – that put her life, family and career at risk.  In today’s episode, Nina joins Arthur Snell to tell that story – and look at the role of dis- and mis-information around the globe. If the US under Trump turns into a deliberate disorderer in the information space, who will be left to order? There is an argument that medium powers like the UK, Brazil and the EU will hold the key to stemming the tide.  Nina is an expert on Russia, Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but in the early 2020s, she became better known as an expert on disinformation. In 2022, she was appointed by the Biden administration to the Disinformation Governance Board, part of the United States Department of Homeland Security. But after Fox attacked her personally, the role was pulled. Since then, she has worked in various NGOs and in other foundations, and her current work is with American Sunlight, which tries to counteract disinformation by providing clear information and research to Americans.  In her conversation with Arthur, she shares insights into the challenges of combating misinformation in the current political landscape, the role of media and big tech in amplifying disinformation, and the implications for democracy. Plus: the duo discuss shifting dynamics within the Republican Party regarding Russia, Elon Musk's influence, the rise of deepfake technology, and the gendered dimension to the violence that permeates online spaces.   And then as they try to Order the Disorder, they look at Brazil as a place where disinformation regulation is starting to work, the importance of information literacy, and what’s been done educationally in Ukraine, plus – could smaller, stronger online communities be the answer?  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links For more on Nina visit https://www.ninajankowicz.com/   For a CBS explainer on what happened to Nina and the role played by Fox: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=64&v=z6havT5C9_M&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2F   Follow Arthur’s pod Behind The Lines https://open.spotify.com/show/4bpdB1iEN3irFueS5CMuq5   Read recent report from the American Sunlight Project on Deepfake Pornography Targeting Members of Congress https://www.americansunlight.org/updates/deepfake-pornography-targeting-members-of-congress    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A tentative ceasefire between Israel and Hamas offers a glimmer of hope, but its fragility raises concerns about trust and potential outcomes. The hosts delve into U.S. foreign policy differences, particularly Trump's strongman tactics versus Biden's diplomatic hurdles. They discuss the pressing need for credible Palestinian leadership and a comprehensive plan for Gaza's recovery. With a focus on local governance and the economic challenges ahead, the conversation emphasizes empathy in conflict resolution while highlighting the voices often overlooked in peace negotiations.

In 2024, the Disorder podcast looked a lot at Ukraine, Syria, Israel-Palestine, India, Bangledesh, and even north Africa… but we didn’t devote sufficient time to sub-saharan Africa. So what does Africa look like in the Age of Disorder?  To find out, Jason is joined this week by Professor Clionadh Raleigh. Cliona created Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) which is a US-based NGO. She is also Professor of Political Violence and Geography in the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex in the UK.  The duo discuss, how the Second Trump administration with its proposals for tariffs and increased tensions with China might affect Africa. And then muse on the roles of middle powers like Nigeria and Ethiopia in a disordered world, highlighting their internal challenges and regional influences.   Then they turn their attention to the civil war in Sudan, the impact of external forces like the Wagner Group in that region, and the future of American policy towards Africa amidst these challenges. And as they Order the Disorder, Clionadh suggests that we need for a nuanced understanding of local politics and the impact of external influences on African stability, and that women and girls need to be supported as part of this.  Plus, we announce the start of our new partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). The world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank. As part of that partnership we will be featuring research and guests from their network, and regular live events at their base in Whitehall. To attend the first event on March 11th, pay for a Subscription to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/  Show Notes Links Read: Did Wagner Group prove an effective tool for Russian foreign policy? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/did-wagner-group-prove-effective-tool-russian-foreign-policy  Read Has Sudan’s Conflict Reached a Turning Point? By RUSI https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/has-sudans-conflict-reached-turning-point  More on Professor Clionadh: https://acleddata.com/team/prof-clionadh-raleigh/   Read ACLED’s Raleigh Report from December 2024: https://acleddata.com/2024/12/19/the-raleigh-report-december-2024/  Read Semafor’s Predictions for Africa in 2025: https://www.semafor.com/article/01/02/2025/africa-in-2025   RUSI experts in this region are, Dr Joana de Deus Pereira https://www.rusi.org/people/de-deus-pereira, Christopher Hockey https://rusi.org/people/hockey , Michael Jones https://rusi.org/people/jones  Read RUSI’s paper, Conclusions Paper: Thematic Research Meeting on the Impacts of Disinformation Campaigns in the Sahel (Southern Neighbourhood) and Effects on Radicalisation and Extremist Movements in the EU: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/external-publications/conclusions-paper-thematic-research-meeting-impacts-disinformation-campaigns-sahel-southern   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With Trump due to be inaugurated in less than 15 days, it is high time to come to grips with his foreign policy vision as it can be gleaned from his cabinet appointments. The incoming cabinet appears isolationist, transactional, and lacking a coherent view of what an American-led global system should look like.   This begs the questions: Could Trump 2.0 symbolise a shift in the Republican foreign policy establishment away from the neoconservatism which has dominated it for four decades and towards a novel and novel approach to American foreign policy? Is this new approach filled with internal contradictions? And what do these countervailing wings of Trumpism mean for Trump 2.0 Administration’s approach to American adversaries such as Russia, China and Iran?  To investigate, Jason is joined by Dr Alan Mendoza, founder and Executive Director of The Henry Jackson Society -- a Westminster think tank known for proposing bold and neo-conservative solutions to the crises facing Britain and the world.  The duo begin by reflecting on the historical significance of figures like Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson(D-WA) and the historical inversions represented by Trump's isolationist and transactional approach to global order. Then: Alan and Jason embark on an around the world tour investigating the current structural weaknesses of Russia under Putin, the fragility of dictatorships in general, the growing threat posed by China, strategies for confronting it, and the importance of deterrence in global politics.  After the ad break Alan and Jason look at: Britain's historical and current role in the Middle East, asking, could Britain compensate for Trumpian aloofness by seeking to reassert a leadership in the MENA region? They explore the influence of Iran as a destabilizing force, the situation in Gaza, the challenges posed by Hamas, and the need for an activist and bold British foreign policy to draw on Britain’s unique strengths and secure her interests.  As the Order the Disorder, Alan proposes that Britain should invest more in cultivating hard power, while Jason stresses the need for upping Britain’s capacity in the sanctions space. Finally, if he were King for a day, Alan would established a new international institution just for functioning democracies – that could work adjacent to the UN – and act as a coordinating forum for the world’s ordering powers.  Producer: George McDonagh Executive Producer: Neil Fearn  Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ In this week’s substack we will have extra audio content about Hamas disinformation about Gazan civilian casualties during the Israel-Hamas war  Show Notes Links  Watch/read interview with Alan about Putin: https://www.the-sun.com/news/13187114/putin-rule-power-russia-mafia/amp/   Read Restoring Deterrence: Destabilising the Iranian Regime by the Henry Jackson Society https://henryjacksonsociety.org/publications/restoring-deterrence-destabilising-the-iranian-regime/   Read Timothy Snyder on Trump, Russia and Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/books/2025/jan/01/timothy-snyder-trump-musk-russia-ukraine-putin   Listen to our episode on Canada’s role in the world: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/601e6a1721995fa854010c309c11ab24   Listen to our episode on China’s economy: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/eaa3d94ed88eb3142a9f4ed571fe4a1f   Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices