Excess Returns

Join Jason Buck from Mutiny Funds, an expert challenging conventional stock investing wisdom. He argues that historical U.S. stock returns might be an anomaly and stresses understanding real versus nominal returns. Buck shares insights on building resilient, diversified portfolios through concepts like fractal diversification. He challenges traditional views on withdrawal rates in retirement and discusses the advantages and risks of leveraging investments. Plus, discover unconventional investing strategies that could reshape your financial mindset.

Andy Constan, founder of DampedSpring and expert in market volatility, tackles the intricacies of recent financial shifts. He dissects deleveraging mechanics and the implications of overleveraging on asset prices. Andy emphasizes the need to think in probabilities while assessing market outcomes and discusses inflation dynamics shaped by technologies like AI and deglobalization. The conversation also includes insights on the Federal Reserve's strategies amid changing economic signals, making for a deeply engaging analysis of current market conditions.

Meb Faber, founder of Cambria Investment Management and known for his unconventional investing views, delves into challenging mainstream financial beliefs. He critiques the Federal Reserve’s performance and advocates for innovative strategies like trend-following and international diversification for U.S. investors. Meb addresses behavioral biases that lead to poor investment decisions, emphasizing the need for a systematic and diversified approach. He also discusses the risks of home country bias and the potential of various asset classes, urging investors to rethink their allocation strategies.

Wade Pfau, a retirement planning expert, dives deep into retirement strategies, focusing on the 4% rule and the evolving challenges retirees face. He elaborates on his 'safety first' approach, advocating for reliable income sources like annuities and Social Security. Discussion points include managing sequence of returns risk, the importance of flexibility in withdrawal strategies, and the impact of personal life changes on financial planning. Pfau also emphasizes the need for regular reassessment and effective communication when navigating retirement income.

Value investing expert Tobias Carlisle discusses the recent outperformance of small cap and value stocks, the challenges of value strategy underperformance, and his approach to stock selection. He emphasizes patience, skepticism of growth projections, and prioritizing survival in investing. The conversation also touches on the dominance of large tech companies and their future returns.

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, discusses market analysis, AI impact on productivity, market breadth, quality-driven ETF strategy, and combining systematic with discretionary investing. Topics include 60/40 portfolio outlook, inflation, labor market indicators, earnings expectations, seasonality, and retail sentiment.

Mike Green, expert in passive investing, discusses the impact of passive investing on markets, risks from increased options usage and the short volatility trade. He also shares his views on inflation, recession risks, Fed policy, and the bifurcation in the economy. Mike's thought-provoking perspectives cover a wide range of market dynamics and risks.

Financial expert Rick Ferri shares insights on simple, low-cost investing, emphasizing factors like simplicity, fees, market efficiency, and historical lessons. The podcast discusses critical thinking in finance, navigating investment decisions during market fluctuations, international diversification, ESG investing nuances, passive investing debates, and seeks feedback for future episodes.

Bob Elliott, a macroeconomics expert from Unlimited Funds, delves into inflation, Fed policies, and market dynamics. Topics include evaluating market price targets, gold in portfolios, investing in hedge funds, and fiscal policies' impact. The discussion covers central banks' cautious approach, economic indicators, political decisions' macroeconomic consequences, and the role of gold as a hedge. The podcast explores portfolio diversification strategies, tax efficiency with ETFs, and the complexity of navigating hedge fund fees.

In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Standpoint's Eric Crittenden. Eric discusses the all weather approach he uses to construct his personal portfoio. He emphasizes maximizing "true wealth" per unit of risk, which he defines as compounded returns after accounting for all costs, taxes, and inflation. Eric's all-weather investment approach, which combines global equities, bonds and a systematic global macro program investing in various uncorrelated markets. He discusses the importance of diversification beyond traditional stock and bond portfolios, his views on homeownership, wealth transfer to children, and the value of focusing on health and sleep. Eric also shares insights on risk management, the challenges of investor behavior, and the importance of getting the basics right in investing. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.validea.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.valideacapital.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JACK Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠