Macro Minutes

Rate volatility continues to be elevated, with policy rate expectations swinging around as determining the terminal rate and what happens afterwards is proving complicated. The unwinding of banking sector concerns accelerated into a more meaningful sell-off and rate hikes continued from most major central banks.Participants:Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates Strategist, Izaac Brook (Desk Strategy), US Rates Strategy Analyst, Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy) - Senior UK Economist, Alvin T. Tan (Desk Strategy) - Asia FX Strategist, Lori Calvasina (Research) - Head of US Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The last week felt much calmer than anything experienced since the SVB and CS induced turmoil over the prior weeks. Volatility is much reduced, credit spreads are tighter and primary markets are re-opening again. Can this last and what are the lingering implications for markets and the economy from the March volatility? Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategySean Taor (Debt Capital Markets), Head of European DCM and SyndicateJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

It might be an overly simplistic argument, but in hindsight it should not be surprising that aggressive Fed rate hikes broke something in financial markets. Policy actions to ring fence the problems have been fast and furious but can all the kings horses and all the king's men, put dislocated markets back together again?Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyNicola Dransfield (Desk Strategy), European financials credit strategistAdam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo TradingTom Porcelli (Research), Chief US EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

As hockey and basketball enter the last weeks of the regular season, central banks themselves are approaching the end of their hiking cycles. There is significant divergence among global central banks, ranging from a conditional pause from the BoC in January (which we expect to be reiterated this week) to ongoing tightening messages from the ECB and the Fed.Participants: Cathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia EconomistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyAdam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Are markets being fooled by lags? Not unusual for this point in the cycle, some data is coming stronger and some weaker. Recently the market has taken its cue from strong labor market data which might be a mistake. It has only been 6-8 months since large-scale rate hikes started and with monetary policy lags being anywhere from 12-24 months, there is a possibility that the bond market is underestimating the timing and magnitude of the growth downturn. But the patterns are not uniform across countries and this episode examines some of the nuances.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyRobert Hogue (Research), Assistant Chief EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The US payroll report sent shock waves through the fixed income market. Market pricing shifted aggressively - terminal pricing is now the highest in the cycle and finally consistent with the FOMC dots. Contagion has also spread to other markets. What now? Can the Fed keep hiking, can the BoC stay on hold, how much further will the BoE, ECB, or RBA go? And what are the implications for equities and FX? This episode delves into these topics.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategySu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief Australia Economist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Recent months have seen widespread hikes across most G10 central banks, but the potential for divergence is high in the coming months as some central banks are approaching the end of their hiking cycle.Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistAmy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives StrategySu-Lin (Research), Chief Economist & Senior Corporate Relationship ManageRobert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

While upcoming policy increments and terminal values for various countries are highly debatable, Can't, Won't, Don't Stop seems like an appropriate characterization of current near term central bank policy. To reiterate our message from late last year - 2023 could turn out to be as challenging as 2022 but for different reasons. 2022 was how high policy rates would go. In 2023 market expectations should become fractured into the hike, hold, cut camps.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyMichael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

BoC/Fed/BoE/ECB are all on tap over the coming week. How high rates will go, whether there will be a quick U-turn to rate cuts in 2023 and by how much, is a central theme for markets that will influence not only yield levels and curve shapes, but also important for FX and broader risk assets.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

2022 was complicated, but it was dominated by a one-sided risk event - how high would rates go. 2023 should be even more complicated; policy scenarios could oscillate between various outcomes depending on the depth of the growth slowdown and inflation dynamics.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistAmy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts