Macro Minutes

The bond market overreacted to inflation fears in June and yields overshot on the topside. July was a complete reversal (and some) as growth fears escalated and yields overshot on the downside. Bond market volatility should remain high until there is better clarity on inflation, central bank terminal rates and how deep the impending recession will be, and this will continue to impact all asset class.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), FX Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Central banks are full throttle on rate increases in a throwback to the early 1980's inflation fighting era. The ultimate end game of current central bank policy will be recession. Will this surprise anyone? How quickly will it happen? And what does it mean for financial markets?Participants: Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Startegy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsJason Daw (Desk strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

The weather isn't the only thing heating up; North American central banks are expected to deliver large rate increases in July and the ECB should hike for the first time since 2011, while August should see sizeable rate hikes in the UK and Australia. Will the heat from rate hikes suffocate economies and markets?Participants: Jason Daw (Desk strategy), Head of North America Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Startegy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistAdam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

We continue in an ebb and flow between market focus on inflation and growth risks, with the latter taking more prominence in recent sessions as concerns that a recession is coming spike. With inflation still not having peaked and central bank concerns on inflation expectations elevated, is such a shift too soon?Participants: Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategyDaniel Rico (Desk Strategy), Latin America FX StrategistLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S Equity StrategyTom Porcelli (Research), Chief US EconomistMichael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

After markets started to shift attention towards growth risks, hawkish central banks and still elevated inflation have re-focused attention on inflation risks and spiked volatility once again. RBC's rates, FX and volatility experts discuss the specifics and implications of recent developments.Participants: Simon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyAmy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategyRobert Thompson (Research), Macro Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Markets have sharply reserved course. Is this the start of a new trend, a consolidation phase, or just a pause before past trends resume? In this episode, RBC’s rates, FX, equity, and credit experts opine on this critical topic.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates StrategyAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyAdam Jones (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo TradingGeorge Davis (Desk Strategy), Chief Technical Strategist, FICC* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategyBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistAmy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives StrategyMichael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Central banks Strike Back! There are clear parallels (rates vol, inflation uncertainty, aggressive central bank tightening) to the early 1980's when Volcker raised rates at all costs to control inflation. In this episode, RBC experts opine on the macro landscape, fixed income, currencies, and credit markets.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates StrategyTom Porcelli (Research), Chief US EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief AU EconomistDaria Parkhomenko (Trading), FX StrategistAdam Cole (Trading), Head of US Credit Algo Trading* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Bond markets have gone wild - the sell-off has intensified and the new dimension of the move higher in rates has been dramatic curve steepening. In this episode, RBC experts discuss what it means for bond markets (levels, curve, volatility), currencies, the equity market and equity volatility landscape.Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates StrategyTom Porcelli (Research), Chief US EconomistPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsAdam Cole (Desk Strategy), Chief Currency StrategistLori Calvasina (Research), Head of U.S. Equity StrategyAmy Wu Silverman (Desk Strategy), Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Global central banks continue to shift more hawkish, but can lofty market pricing for tightening be realized? What are the risks and opportunities in the current backdrop? RBC global rates experts delve into these issues, while FX and energy specialists discuss the latest developments in their markets. Participants: Tom Porcelli (Research), Chief US EconomistBlake Gwinn (Desk Strategy), Head of US Rates StrategyElsa Lignos (Desk Strategy), Head of FX StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategistJason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates StrategyPeter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsSu-Lin Ong (Research), Chief AU EconomistMichael Tran (Research), Global Energy Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts