NGI’s Hub & Flow

Despite talk of an energy emergency and regulations that have impeded resource development, U.S. producers have been pumping out more natural gas than ever. However, production levels have shifted widely in recent years, sinking between 2023 and 2024 and now rising again. What will 2025 bring for U.S. natural gas supply? NGI’s Leticia Gonzales, managing director of North American natural gas pricing, and senior markets editor Jodi Shafto delve into the production situation. They discuss recent production trends and the driving forces behind them, what may lie ahead for some of the biggest production basins and the impacts to natural gas prices amid continued capital discipline and drilling efficiencies.

The podcast dives into the recent executive orders by President Trump to revive LNG export projects. It highlights how these orders could expedite approvals for key initiatives while addressing ongoing regulatory challenges. The hosts analyze significant projects like Port Arthur LNG and Lake Charles LNG, exploring their progress amidst a shifting political landscape. Environmental concerns also play a role as they discuss the implications of the Biden administration's studies. Ultimately, the dialogue emphasizes the stakes for economic growth and energy security in the U.S.

Chilly winter weather has led to a surge in natural gas demand, pushing prices higher than the previous year. Analysts discuss how shrinking storage surpluses and production disruptions, like wellhead freeze-offs, shape the market's future. Increased LNG demand is expected to create further shifts, while the dynamics between Canadian and U.S. prices reveal cautious producer strategies. The potential impact of new tariffs and North American exports to Mexico adds another layer of complexity to this volatile landscape.

Steve Blair, Managing Director of Institutional Energy Sales at Paragon Global Markets LLC, shares insights on the shifting landscape of natural gas prices this winter. He discusses the impact of increased production and storage levels on market dynamics, emphasizing how extreme cold weather could drive demand. Blair also highlights potential wild cards for 2025, such as tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and the ongoing buildout of the U.S. export complex, shaping the future of the natural gas market.

Natural gas demand continues to defy forecasts calling for renewables to halt the fuel's growth in the Lower 48. That’s no surprise to one clean energy investor, Prithvi Ventures’ Rakesh Radhakrishnan, who spoke with NGI’s senior markets editor Chris Newman about how lifecycle costs and other factors would continue to play a huge role in decision making for power resources.

Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with about 75% of the country’s natural gas originating from the Lower 48 states. Cross-border energy trade in 2023 reached $66.5 billion, and imports of U.S. natural gas have increased for years as Mexico’s domestic production has decreased.  With Mexico President Sheinbaum’s recent inauguration, however, the role of state-owned energy companies has been put in question. Now, with former President Trump’s re-election, NGI’s Andrew Baker, senior editor, sits down with Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, to discuss how the cross-border energy trade may evolve. Baker and Lenton dive into the implications for Mexico’s export projects should Trump reverse the Biden administration’s LNG permit pause, as well as the outlook for natural gas demand in both Mexico and the United States as nearshoring and power generation needs evolve.

Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations.  Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come.

NGI LNG editors Jamison Cocklin and Jacob Dick discuss the upcoming election and what a Harris or Trump presidency could mean for the U.S. LNG sector. They explore how either candidate may approach new export projects after a lengthy pause on authorizations that was imposed by the Biden administration. The conversation also focuses on Trump's tariff proposals and a potential trade war with China, as well as how down-ballot races could impact U.S. exports.

Graham Bain, an expert in carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS), leads Enverus Intelligence Research's subsurface group focused on energy transition. He discusses the ambitious goal of capturing 500 million tons of carbon per year in the U.S., largely funded by supermajors like ExxonMobil and Chevron. Bain highlights the challenges of permitting and public opposition but underscores the Gulf Coast's advantages for these projects. He also examines the economic dynamics of CCUS, including the potential impacts of recent policy changes on carbon pricing.

NGI senior markets editor Jodi Shafto interviews Andy Huenefeld, managing partner at Pinebrook Energy Advisors and contributor to The Energy Buyers Guide report. Huenefeld discusses key factors for the Lower 48 winter heating season that begins on Nov. 1.