NGI’s Hub & Flow

With the ramp up of two LNG projects on the Gulf Coast this year and more demand on the way in 2026, all eyes are on the swift rise in prices. But will producers be incentivized to swiftly grow production volumes after a prolonged period of low prices? NGI's Jacob Dick, senior editor of LNG, talks with East Daley Analytics’ Jack Weixel, senior director of energy analysis, about the price and production outlook headed into 2026 and how volatility may be here to stay.

NGI’s Christopher Lenton managing editor of Mexico, speaks to Sergio Chapa, senior energy analyst at Poten & Partners, on the latest trends in North American LNG and natural gas markets. Times have changed in the past few months with natural gas roaring to the forefront of the U.S. energy discussion. New LNG facilities are ramping up and other projects have taken on added impetus. How does the Trump administration in the United States impact natural gas supply and demand? How about Mexico projects sourcing U.S. gas? When are major projects like Plaquemines and Corpus Christi Stage 3 ramping up? What about Argentina's LNG ambitions? Lenton and Chapa get to the bottom of all of this and more.

NGI’sKevin Dobbs, senior markets editor, and Patrick Rau, senior vice president of research and analysis, dig into the state of natural gas fundamentals and price implications. Coming off earnings season and executive outlooks shared on analyst calls, the two discuss the various factors that could influence producers to further ramp up supply – from key price thresholds to macroeconomic conditions. They also delve into long-term demand drivers, including swelling calls by LNG facilities for feed gas and a growing number of data centers with robust energy needs. Rau and Dobbs tie together supply and demand and how the various puts and takes could line up to impact natural gas prices this year and beyond.

A harsh winter has flipped natural gas inventories from surplus to deficit, creating challenges for the upcoming summer. Producers are exercising caution despite higher prices, complicating the ability to rebuild stocks. Fluctuations in LNG demand and weather forecasts further complicate storage strategies. Regional differences in gas supply levels add to the complexity, with surpluses in some areas and deficits in others. The podcast also highlights the impact of drought conditions on energy supplies, stressing the importance of staying informed.

Ed Crooks, Vice Chair for the Americas at Wood Mackenzie, offers expert insights into the shifting landscape of the natural gas market under the Trump administration. He discusses the implications of new tariffs and their impact on North American pricing and trade relations with Canada and Mexico. The conversation touches on the future of LNG supply amidst a slowing transition to renewables and explores whether the U.S. is facing an energy emergency as AI technology develops. Crooks also highlights Europe's escalating natural gas challenges amid geopolitical tensions.

Tom Sharp, Director of Permitting Intelligence at Arbo, shares insights on the complex landscape of LNG project regulation. He discusses the recent regulatory slowdowns and the implications of agency changes under the Trump administration. Sharp examines litigation risks that threaten export projects and the intersection of environmental justice with regulatory challenges. He highlights how court rulings and NEPA regulations impact decision-making and emphasizes the need for actionable data to navigate these hurdles effectively.

Despite talk of an energy emergency and regulations that have impeded resource development, U.S. producers have been pumping out more natural gas than ever. However, production levels have shifted widely in recent years, sinking between 2023 and 2024 and now rising again. What will 2025 bring for U.S. natural gas supply? NGI’s Leticia Gonzales, managing director of North American natural gas pricing, and senior markets editor Jodi Shafto delve into the production situation. They discuss recent production trends and the driving forces behind them, what may lie ahead for some of the biggest production basins and the impacts to natural gas prices amid continued capital discipline and drilling efficiencies.

The podcast dives into the recent executive orders by President Trump to revive LNG export projects. It highlights how these orders could expedite approvals for key initiatives while addressing ongoing regulatory challenges. The hosts analyze significant projects like Port Arthur LNG and Lake Charles LNG, exploring their progress amidst a shifting political landscape. Environmental concerns also play a role as they discuss the implications of the Biden administration's studies. Ultimately, the dialogue emphasizes the stakes for economic growth and energy security in the U.S.

Chilly winter weather has led to a surge in natural gas demand, pushing prices higher than the previous year. Analysts discuss how shrinking storage surpluses and production disruptions, like wellhead freeze-offs, shape the market's future. Increased LNG demand is expected to create further shifts, while the dynamics between Canadian and U.S. prices reveal cautious producer strategies. The potential impact of new tariffs and North American exports to Mexico adds another layer of complexity to this volatile landscape.

Steve Blair, Managing Director of Institutional Energy Sales at Paragon Global Markets LLC, shares insights on the shifting landscape of natural gas prices this winter. He discusses the impact of increased production and storage levels on market dynamics, emphasizing how extreme cold weather could drive demand. Blair also highlights potential wild cards for 2025, such as tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and the ongoing buildout of the U.S. export complex, shaping the future of the natural gas market.