NGI’s Hub & Flow State of the Market: How Will the Trade War Impact U.S. LNG Demand
May 17, 2025
Ben Cahill, Director for Energy Markets and Policy at the University of Texas at Austin, dives deep into the implications of the trade war on U.S. LNG demand. He discusses how geopolitical tensions and European methane regulations could reshape the LNG landscape. Cahill analyzes the balance between domestic need and export growth, while shedding light on Qatar's emerging role and shifts in global markets. With a focus on price volatility and market dynamics, this conversation brings forth critical insights for the future of natural gas.
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US LNG's Growing Geopolitical Role
- The European gas crisis revived global energy security concerns significantly.
- US LNG supply has gained geopolitical and economic significance, potentially supplying a third of global LNG by 2030.
Tariffs Impact LNG Costs
- Tariffs on steel and aluminum increase LNG project costs and create economic uncertainty.
- LNG projects like Woodside's Louisiana LNG use strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, like lump sum contracts and foreign trade zone delegations.
Low Oil Prices Threaten Gas Supply
- The Trump administration's preference for lower oil prices surprises the industry and risks reducing associated gas production.
- This production risk complicates meeting growing LNG export demand alongside rising domestic gas needs, such as for data centers.