Eurodollar University

Recent payroll data and FOMC minutes hint at a possible July rate cut. Despite seemingly positive job numbers, there are concerning signs such as falling hourly earnings and reduced work hours. This chapter explores the mixed signals in the labor market and their implications for Federal Reserve actions. It also critiques traditional inflation theories, suggesting a low inflation risk, while analyzing how the swap market might forecast future interest rates. Will policymakers avoid repeating past mistakes? Tune in for the insights!

The podcast discusses Amazon's extended Prime Days, highlighting unusual consumer economy weaknesses. A significant drop in credit card usage indicates deeper economic woes. Despite narratives of consumer resilience, troubling indicators point to declining job security and earnings. The analysis contrasts optimistic payroll reports with stark realities, revealing the challenges retailers face amid reduced spending and overall economic strain.

This wasn't supposed to happen. In fact, many said it was impossible up to and including central bank officials at the Federal Reserve. Yet, one of them, the head of the all-important New York branch, just released a report which say the market is taking ZIRP possibilities very seriously - and so should those at the highest levels of the Fed. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis*****If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/************To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps******FRBNY Liberty Street Blog The Zero Lower Bound Remains a Medium‑Term Riskhttps://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/07/the-zero-lower-bound-remains-a-medium-term-risk/FOMC Transcript March 2007https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20070321meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The conversation dives into the curious case of rising speculation around the Euro compared to the stable reality of the US Dollar. Analysts highlight that this trend is driven more by short-term speculation than by robust economic indicators. There’s a critical examination of how flawed economic models are leaving traders confused and unprepared. As everyone leans towards a singular trading perspective, the risks of a sudden market shift loom large, setting the stage for potential turbulence in global currencies.

Steve Van Metre, a macroeconomic analyst, dives into the troubling economic situations in Canada and Mexico as potential warning signs for the U.S. He discusses how ineffective rate cuts fail to address rising unemployment and declining exports. The disparity between robust stock markets and a faltering bond market reveals a more accurate economic landscape. Van Metre emphasizes the risks facing U.S. consumers, particularly in real estate, and warns that a global economic downturn could have severe implications if trends continue.

It was supposed to be one single out-of-control Wall Street bank. When authorities were forced to look into the matter, what they uncovered was a shocking. Not one but EVERYONE. Yet, after uncovering what was going on, the full astonishing scale, they never figured out WHY. And that was the whole thing, what the scandal said about a world that had already drastically changed. Eurodollar University's Make It Make Cents*******To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps******Treasury Joint Report on the Government Securities Market (Jan 1992)https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/276/joint-report-on-the-government-securities-Market-1992.pdfLA Times Taming the Bond Buccaneers at Salomon Brothers : How Warren Buffet and friends swept up after the Salomon scandal, possible saving the firm from federal regulators furious after a decade of skuldggery [sic] on Wall Street.https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-02-16-tm-4654-story.htmlSEC Chronology of Salomon Scandalhttps://www.sechistorical.org/collection/papers/1990/1991_1016_ChronologySalomonT.pdfJay Powell Treasury Markets and the TMPG (Oct 2017)https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20171005a.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swapsLike last month, this June payroll report was taken one way in the mainstream while the details went entirely in the other direction. Headline was a beat and the unemployment rate stalled. Yet, the former was ironically a product of government jobs while the latter slid a tiny amount for ALL THE WRONG REASONS.

Recent trends in the money system raise eyebrows as primary dealers in Treasury bills hint at underlying financial disturbances. A disconnect between soaring stock prices and ominous market signals points to potential deflation. The swap market emerges as a key indicator for forecasting economic shifts, revealing a drop in inflation risk and foreshadowing possible decline. Additionally, negative swap spreads suggest troubling implications for future interest rates, echoing the silent depression experienced in the 2010s.

Fedex is a global bellwether for good reason. What the company said about the economic environment at the start of Q3 was...nothing. But in choosing not to forecast anything, the company said a lot especially given the evidence that has come piling up. We haven't seen consumer spending and incomes like this in America since 2020. That's not a typo. Flat Beveridge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis*******To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps******https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Big moves in yields, especially at the front. While twos are making a move on their own, it's the very front at the first-in-line bills that draws our attention. Steepening has been given a boost by some ugly recent data from right where it counts - incomes and spending.Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre*****If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/************To sign up for our webinar on July 10, follow the link below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/swaps******https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU