The Most Important Line Everyone Missed at Jackson Hole

Aug 23, 2025

Steve Van Metre joins Jeff Snider to delve into overlooked insights from Jay Powell's Jackson Hole speech. They dissect the implications of evolving Fed sentiments on inflation and employment risks. The conversation highlights the significant shift in market reactions, including SOFR futures, and critiques the idea that interest rate cuts can solve deeper economic problems. Additionally, they explore consumer behavior amid rising prices and the challenges faced by businesses due to inflation, revealing a complex economic landscape.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

INSIGHT

Powell Admits Rising Job Risks

Jay Powell signaled rising downside risks to employment rather than persistent tariff-driven inflation.
Markets priced that as deeper, longer SOFR inversion extending into early 2027.

INSIGHT

Bonds See Cuts As Economic Signal

The bond and forward-rate markets reacted more soberly than stocks, extending expected cuts farther out.
That reflects belief cuts will follow a deepening economic slowdown, not a liquidity boost.

INSIGHT

Fed Messaging Shifted Toward Jobs

Powell's tone shift followed a string of Fed speakers and weak payroll data that changed the committee's focus.
Powell prioritized preventing a labor-market slide even if markets read that as dovish.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

There were several key points from Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole which everyone seems to have missed. The market picked up on them, however, with SOFR futures reacting by pushing its inversion deeper and further out, now early 2027. What Chair Powell meant under everything he said was he finally gets the big Beveridge risk.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.
All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out!
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdf

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank.

Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:
-Not insured by the FDIC.
-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.
-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal. Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.

Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU