Eurodollar University

The podcast discusses the decrease in oil prices, impact on global economy, and signs of a recession. It explores the correlation between falling oil prices and lower gasoline prices in the US. The weak gasoline supply and decline in demand for petroleum reflect questionable demand in the global economy. The analysis of global bond rates and yield movement highlights the potential move into a recession. The inversion between the three month and six month on the yield curve reflects hedging demand and indicates the state of the economy.

Exploring the conflict between hedge funds, regulators, and academics over the basis trade in the treasury market. Understanding the basis trade and its significance in the global monetary system. The impact of the basis trade on financial markets in March 2020. Uncovering the causes of the March 2020 treasury market blow up. Understanding FEMA, the basis trade, and liquidity risk.

In this podcast, the hosts debunk misconceptions about the relationship between interest rates, stock prices, and the economy. They discuss the potential impact of rising profits and revenues on stock prices and caution against investing too late if a soft landing scenario doesn't occur. The speakers also analyze inflation, the labor market, and the Federal Reserve's stance on cutting interest rates. They question the belief that rate cuts can save the economy and emphasize the importance of analyzing assumptions rather than relying on central banks for rescues.

Analyzing weak employment numbers confirming the start of a recession, discussing businesses during the transition and decreasing interest rates, exploring the decline in yields in Europe and its implications, analyzing labor market trends and manipulated payroll reports, discussing recent labor market data and confirmation of recession.

This podcast explores the potential un-inversion of the yield curve and the Federal Reserve's influence on interest rate policies. It debunks misconceptions surrounding interest rates and yield curves, analyzes swap spreads as signals beyond the Federal Reserve's views, discusses recent changes in the yield curve, and explores various scenarios and signals related to the bond market and the economy.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #europe #fed #federalreserve #ecb Hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller has gotten cold feet on the economy and the financial system, taking a huge leveraged position right at the spot on the curve we've been highlighting for months. The primary reason why is being made perfectly clear as globally synchronized data spotlight a global economy falling apart. Perhaps rapidly. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: Druckenmiller Says He Has ‘Massive’ Bullish Bets on 2-Year Noteshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-31/druckenmiller-says-he-has-massive-bullish-bets-on-2-year-notesISM Manufacturing PMI October 2023https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/october/Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #china #yuan #purge There appears to be an honest-to-goodness (not good) purge underway across China's top leadership. This political instability appears to be driven by disagreement over the direction of the Chinese economy, currency and property sector and what to do - if anything - about it. Despite recent Western headlines blaring "China has turned a corner" the data, and the intrigue, shows conclusively it hasn't. The fallout will be felt worldwide - more than it already has. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNN: China removes Defense Minister Li Shangfu after two-month disappearancehttps://www.cnn.com/2023/10/24/china/china-names-new-defense-minister-intl-hnk/index.htmlReuters: China's Xi makes first known visit to central bank -sourceshttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-xi-makes-first-known-visit-central-bank-sources-2023-10-24/Bloomberg: Country Garden’s Missed Bond Payment Triggers CDS Payouthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-10-26/country-garden-s-missed-bond-payment-triggers-cds-payoutSCMP: China’s economy ‘turned a corner’: 7 takeaways from third-quarter GDP, September datahttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3238369/chinas-economy-turned-corner-7-takeaways-third-quarter-gdp-september-dataTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Brent Johnson, an expert in the finance industry, discusses the emotional aspect of de-dollarization and the need to reevaluate views based on reality rather than personal emotions. The podcast also explores the misconceptions about China's impact on the United States, the misleading narrative of mainstream economics, and the complexity of changing the monetary system. It provides potential solutions for replacing the dominant dollar.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #eurodollar #income #jobs #europe #germany #yieldcurve Is the bond selloff finally over? How would we tell? One way is to look at European specifically German rates and rate behavior. Over the last half decade, bunds et al have led US Treasuries including the similar cases in 2018 not to mention last year. Not only are cash market yields trending that way, forward European money rates are more strongly inverted this month, too. The reason why is equally clear, coming straight from statements by top ECB officials. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChristine Lagarde, President of the ECB: Press Conference 10/26/2023https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2023/html/ecb.is231026~c23b4eb5f0.en.htmlTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Consumer price numbers have come back during the summer. Since US GDP was up big in Q3, quite a few seem concerned this could mark the beginning of a second "inflationary" phase. But underneath the oil surge there is overwhelming evidence disinflation remains firmly entrenched. A little too firmly, according to the markets.Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre