Eurodollar University

This podcast discusses the resurgence of deflation and its implications for the economy. It explores the effects on major retailers like Walmart, the practice of channel stuffing, rising unemployment claims, and the global slowdown. The speaker highlights signs of caution among consumers and the shift towards a deflationary environment.

The podcast explores the factors that influence interest rates and how the government's attempts at economic stimulus have failed. It discusses the importance of treasury bonds for safety and liquidity and explores disconnects between the federal government's deficit and bond rates. The correlation between interest rate theory and market behavior in depressionary periods is also examined.

Walmart's warning about a deflationary recession and the impact on consumer behavior. Crashing oil and gas prices and their implications on the energy sector. Analysis of the shift from backwardation to Contango in the oil market. Economic concerns: rising jobless claims and the potential for a deflationary recession.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates #cpi Massive buying in global bonds sparked by the US CPI. The consumer price estimates weren't shocking or even much of a surprise, instead they confirmed a lot about economic risks as well as what has been happening in bonds of late. The selloff isn't just over; it was never what everyone said it was. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg: The Rapid Bond Rally Is Looking Fragilehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-10/rapid-bond-rally-is-looking-fragile-as-fed-supply-expose-cracksTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Exploring the connection between consumer weakness and bond market nervousness, caution in consumer spending and its impact on retail inventories, the consequences of reduced consumer spending on inventory levels, the disinflation cycle and weakness in producer prices, and the weak retail spending in China and Europe.

#recession #money #recession2023 #money  #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #interestrates They were all lovey-dovish last month in pausing rate hikes, then last week suddenly they're all hawks again. What changed? It wasn't the economy nor the economic data derived from it. The Fed's entire worldview is exposed when markets diverge from policymakers' preferred path. From rate hikes to the Phillips Curve, there is no basis for what central bankers do...accept to manipulate public opinion.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChair Jerome H. Powell At "Monetary Policy Challenges in a Global Economy," a policy panel at the 24th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference, hosted by the International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20231109a.htmNBER: IT’S BAAACK: THE SURGE IN INFLATION IN THE 2020S AND THE RETURNOF THE NON-LINEAR PHILLIPS CURVEhttps://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31197/w31197.pdfTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

#stocks #interestrates #dollar #money #stockcrash The full video with Mike Green is available to Eurodollar University members and DDA subscribers. To see what memberships and research subscriptions offer, go here: https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptionsEurodollar University's guess conversations featuring Mike GreenTwitter: https://twitter.com/profplum99Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

China's banking system is facing challenges with a frozen repo market and increasing short-term debt borrowing. The central bank's response and the unusual rise in repo rates are causing concerns. The rollercoaster ride of China's reopening efforts and the impact on deflation are also discussed. Financial indications in the banking system and the possibility of a political purge in China's leadership are analyzed.

The podcast discusses the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and term premiums. It analyzes how economists estimate term premiums and explores the challenges in defining and measuring them. The recent shift in term premiums, with the 10-year term premium turning positive, is discussed, along with its implications for the bond market and alignment with central bank policies.

The podcast discusses the current state of the oil market, the announcement of a recession in Japan, challenges in economic forecasting, revolving credit trends, Germany's export reliant economy, and the potential for a global recession.