Eurodollar University

Soft landings and resilient economy supported by strength in labor markets. At least that's the narrative, the truth is completely different. Much of the developed world is being swept up in a wave of rising unemployment. Yes, including the US.;/Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBank of Canadahttps://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/opening-statement-2024-06-05/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another new low for JPY as the Japanese government is shuffling up its top Finance Ministry people. Everyone continues to blame the Fed for the yen's crash but the evidence conclusively shows that's not it. This only raises the question, what is it? The yen's own track record holds the answer and it is one that applies to you.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Japan names new FX diplomat as yen hits 38-year lowhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-appoints-atsushi-mimura-top-fx-diplomat-replacing-masato-kanda-2024-06-28/Reuters Japan warns against rapid FX moves, reiterates readiness for actionhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japan-warns-against-rapid-fx-moves-reiterates-readiness-action-2024-06-24/Bloomberg Yen Falls Through 161 Per Dollar, Putting Intervention in Focushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-28/yen-falls-through-161-per-dollar-as-intervention-wagers-increaseBarrons The Fed’s Higher for Longer Policy Is Breaking the Yenhttps://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-yen-b66308afhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Retail and Pharmacy giant Walgreens now says there won't be a second half rebound after all, not according to its view of the consumer economy. It was seconded by Levi's and then European behemoth H&M. All of that ties together with a record low in US pending home sales and a summer driving season that's already an enormous bust as recession forces bear down.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNBCNews Walgreens plans store closures as CEO says consumers 'stunned' by priceshttps://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/walgreens-plans-store-closures-ceo-says-consumers-stunned-prices-rcna159208CNBC Levi’s shares drop 15% as jeans maker’s sales disappoint despite denim crazehttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/26/levi-levi-earnings-q2-2024.htmlCNBC H&M plunges 13% on doubts over full-year margin target, June sales outlookhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/27/hm-plunges-12point5percent-on-doubts-over-full-year-margin-target-june-sales-outlook.htmlBloomberg US Pending Home Sales Index Slides to Record Low on High Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/us-pending-home-sales-index-slides-to-record-low-on-high-rateshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Discover the radical changes in China's Central Bank's operations, focusing on bond purchases, interest rate communications, and economic challenges. Explore the transition towards Western central bank strategies, including the impact of Eurodollars on the economy and the shift towards using interest rates for policy communication.

There have been a whole bunch of ripples through the monetary system coming in from all angles pointing toward a sizable collateral disruption. The primary culprit(s) appears to be from Europe, starting in bond spreads surging off election uncertainty though we can't discount the ECB's rate cut as a factor. The eurodollar aftershocks are pronounced regardless of origin.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIOSCO Securities Lending Transactions: Market Development and Implicationshttps://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d32.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Japanese banks have been bulking up on US junk corporate credit for the last year, driven entirely by an increasingly difficult reach for yield. That means overlooking dangers and risks which in other less distorted times would have been taken more seriously. The end result is a large and growing distortion in a key part of the credit markets.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBank of Japan Financial System Report October 2019https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/brp/fsr/data/fsr191024a.pdfVanEck Looking Beyond AAA Rated CLOs Pays Offhttps://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/income-investing/looking-beyond-aaa-rated-clos-pays-off/Deutsche Bank What impact is 'higher for longer' having on the CLO market in 2024https://flow.db.com/trust-and-agency-services/what-impact-is-higher-for-longer-having-on-the-clo-market-in-2024Bloomberg A $1.3 Trillion Fund Pool for Junk-Rated US Firms Has Unlikely Lifeline: Japan's Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/the-1-3-trillion-clo-market-grows-more-dependent-on-japan-bankshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Copper and aluminum were soaring and so were reflation expectations for the global economy. If the world wasn't too careful, those might even lead to resurgent inflation. What's happening in those and other commodities has shocked market observers. As has the most recent global macro data. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

Another CRE securitized structure is reportedly causing losses for its top tier, this one in another country and from a different corner of the real estate market. This matches recent reports that big banks are quietly beginning to sell their seniors in the space. Moreover, US homebuilder activity has plunged to new lows as the crosscurrents in the economy and financing are getting more unfavorable. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Pimco Warns of More Regional Bank Failures on Property Painhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/pimco-warns-of-more-regional-bank-failures-on-commercial-property-painBloomberg CMBS Buyers Face First Europe AAA Loss Since Credit Crunchhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/cmbs-buyers-set-for-first-europe-aaa-loss-since-credit-crunchBloomberg Losses Pile Up in Top-Rated Bonds Backed by Commercial Real Estate Debthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/cmbs-buyers-suffer-first-loss-on-aaa-debt-since-financial-crisisCREDiQ CRE CLO Distress Rate Widens to 9.74%https://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/14/cre-clo-distress-rate-widens-to-9-74/CREDiQ Loan Modifications Swell 195% in 12 Monthshttps://cred-iq.com/blog/2024/06/21/loan-modifications-swell-195-in-12-months-cred-iq/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

The Swiss National Bank surprised Economists by cutting rates for the second time in a row. Citing a number of potential worries starting with more recession, the rate cuts are aligned with growing dollar troubles roiling the rest of the world. Major currencies are sinking fast, hitting new lows and pointing toward the same reasoning just acted on in Switzerland. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg SNB Silence Sets Up Another Rate-Cut Cliffhangerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/swiss-national-bank-interest-rate-cuts-central-bank-silence-sets-up-cliffhangerSwitzerland Economic forecast largely unchanged: Swiss growth in 2024 to be below averagehttps://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/media-releases.msg-id-101432.htmlSNB Monetary Policy Assessment June 20, 2024https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20240620CNBC Switzerland makes second interest rate cut as major economies diverge on monetary policy easinghttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/20/switzerland-trims-key-interest-rate-to-1point25percent-in-second-cut-of-the-year.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates

A Japanese bank giant announced it was going to begin selling tens of BILLIONS in USTs and other European government bonds knowing full well the institution is going to take huge losses on the sales. Is this the start of another bank run? Will this kill the Treasury market? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisAbout Norinchukin Bankhttps://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/about/Norinchukin Financial Summary Fiscal Year 2023https://www.nochubank.or.jp/en/ir/results/pdf/cap_results2023_04_02.pdfBloomberg Echoes of 2009 Crisis Thrust Japanese Bank Norinchukin Back Into Spotlighthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-21/japan-s-bank-for-farmers-and-fishermen-returns-to-spotlight-for-overseas-lossesBloomberg Norinchukin Bank to Sell $63 Billion of Sovereign Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-18/norinchukin-bank-to-sell-63-billion-of-bonds-to-stem-lossesBloomberg A $1.3 Trillion Fund Pool for Junk-Rated US Firms Has Unlikely Lifeline: Japan's Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-20/the-1-3-trillion-clo-market-grows-more-dependent-on-japan-banksFRBNY Standing Repo Facility Approved Counterpartieshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/srflist-231201CBO Budget Update June 2024https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2024-06/60039-Outlook-2024.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUEurodollar University's Anniversary Webinar: The Fundamentals of Interest Rates over the Next 12 months.Sign up below:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/rates