Eurodollar University

Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and then going from there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

First part of Mike Green conversation, including the retirement bombshell from IBM:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jfIDNqVnZoThe rest of it is available for EDU members and DDA subscribers. If you aren't one, you can become one here:https://www.eurodollar.university/memberssubscriptionsThe S&P 500 hit another record high. That's proof the US is on track to achieve its Goldilocks scenario, soft landing and disinflation combined. Or is it? What do stock indexes really tell us? Sifting through the averages they instead picture a different set of conditions (assist from Mike Green). The vast majority of US shares look far more Chinese than Magnificent 7.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

You often hear someone in the media say the bond market is currently pricing for five or six Fed rate cuts. That's not actually what's being priced. This is not a subtle difference or a few degrees of interpretation. This is night and day with stocks potentially getting caught in between. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

EDU's report on Collateral Shortageshttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralWhat was last year's banking crisis really about? Deposit flight was only the first part of it. In a bombshell report prepared by a working group of the G30, it admits the biggest challenge for banks and central banks alike was...collateral. What the group recommends authorities do about it is...insane. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisG30 BANK FAILURES AND CONTAGION LENDER OF LAST RESORT, LIQUIDITY, AND RISK MANAGEMENThttps://group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_Lessons-23-Crisis_RPT_Final.pdfBPI Comment on the New G30 Reporthttps://bpi.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Comment-on-the-new-G30-report.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

More data from the Chinese economy and real estate market which further confirms the dire situation China is facing. Xi Jinping is facing that situation by tightening his grip even further, waging a stepped-up war against corruption even though Xi declared corruption had been defeated five years ago. This isn't about corruption; the more the Chinese gov't does, including purges, the worst it is getting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSCMP ‘No one is safe’: China purges record number of senior officials in 2023, with more ‘tigers’ likely to fallhttps://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3247040/no-one-safe-china-purges-record-number-senior-officials-2023-more-tigers-likely-fallBloomberg China’s Defense Purge Strikes at Heart of Xi’s Military Reformshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-04/china-s-defense-purge-strikes-at-heart-of-xi-s-military-reformsAsia Times Water in Chinese missiles’ tanks is a fake storyhttps://asiatimes.com/2024/01/water-in-chinese-missiles-tanks-is-a-fake-story/VOA Dreary Economic Data Suggests Struggles Ahead for Chinahttps://www.voanews.com/a/dreary-economic-data-suggests-struggles-ahead-for-china/7444827.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #china #xijinping #taiwan

Ho ho wut? Data looks awful one day but fine the next. Yesterday's Empire Fed plunged, yet today the gov't reports retail sales numbers that look fine. Was Christmas a bust, or was it strong like everyone now says? Reconciling these numbers - including production - isn't really difficult starting with "strong" context. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

The Empire Fed's manufacturing PMI absolutely plummeted in January 2024. While it may be just one region for one month, these numbers are some of the worst on record and convincingly add to the growing list of evidence that the US economy is heading into the non-linear part of the recession process. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Germany Narrowly Escapes Recession But Outlook Remains Toughhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-15/germany-s-economy-shrank-last-year-for-first-time-since-pandemicNYT Recession: Some Criteria Missing, So Far (1974)https://www.nytimes.com/1974/08/28/archives/recession-some-criteria-missing-so-far-there-will-be-no-recession.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.universityThis conversation wasn’t just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

Jim Rickards Interview (1st Part)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NA4JH9S39wgFor memberships and subscriptions, there's a "secret" sale going on here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Chinese leadership ended 2023 on several ominous notes.  Economic and importantly financial data continues to defy expectations for a turnaround adding more evidence to the perilous situation. At the same time, the government is making more extreme political action, purging more top officials under the guise of "reform" when it is more likely the former is really driving the latter. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg  US Intelligence Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Armyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-militaryXi Jinping's July Military meetinghttp://www.81.cn/yw_208727/16238925.htmlAxios China's military purge deepenshttps://www.axios.com/2023/12/31/xi-jinping-china-military-corruption-purgehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot

This podcast discusses the movement and implications of the yield curve, including bear and bull steepening cases. It analyzes recent yield curve movements and warning signs, examines evidence for bull steepening in the global economy, and discusses the impact of J. Powell's speeches on the bond market. Additionally, it explores historical instances of yield curve inversions and their implications for the economy.