Eurodollar University

Discussion on the fear of inflation returning, the relationship between interest rates and inflation, the flaws in popular inflation narratives, historical examples of supply shocks and their impact on consumer prices, and the bond market's response to the hot CPI and expectation of interest rate increase.

This podcast discusses the significance of repo fails in the global monetary system, emphasizing their potential to indicate severe strain. It explores the concept of repo fails and the role of securities lending in facilitating collateral flow. The chapter also delves into the reporting instructions for dealers and the reasons behind fails, highlighting the importance of monitoring these indicators. It further highlights how spikes in repo fails serve as key indicators of worsening economic conditions.

The recent bond rally - which may not be over - was one for the books. The 10-year US Treasury dropped nearly 120 bps off its yield in only 47 trading days. A move that big and that fast for the 10s had only happened six other times over the last three decades. We'll go over what that means and what it can tell us about where we go from here; bonds and everything else. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

The podcast explores the recent surge in repo fails and the impact on swap spreads. It discusses the Treasury Department's cutback on collateral supply and its correlation with interest rates. Negative swap spreads signify deteriorating monetary conditions and increased demand for safety. The narrative of too many treasuries is debunked as the rising demand continues. The repo market failure is not just a bank arbitrage, but a broader issue affecting the monetary system.

Friday delivered labor market body blows to the soft landing's chances. Friday was filled with labor market data that isn't leaving us any gray area. The evidence continues to stack up and in more convincing fashion the US economy bonds were right. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

Full interview with Mr. Milkshake, Brent Johnson, on eurodollar (not dollar) dominance:https://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarWhile many cheered another payroll number, in reality the labor data were a complete trainwreck. The Household Survey's measure of employment plunged and full-time jobs crashed by an almost record amount during December. What's the meaning behind this bevy of increasingly grim numbers?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

Payrolls are positive. The unemployment rate is incredibly low. Stocks are soaring. What recession? Furthermore, we've been talking about one for so long it is more than understandable why people have tuned it out. But how could we know the recession call is wrong? It isn't just the continued lack of layoffs. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

The level of hiring in the US has collapsed in a way we haven't seen since 2008 and 2009 (outside the pandemic lockdowns). JOLTS survey results show the largest 6-month decline in hiring of any same-sized period over the entire 21st century (ex. '20). The labor market is more than halfway into recession; but what about that other half?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #credit #ratecuts #federalreserve #fomc #fedpivot #jobs #unemployment #employment

China's 'president' Xi Jinping made a startling admission in his New Year address. For the first time he said the economy struggled last year. The confession merely underscores the difficulties the country is currently facing and has so far been unable to surmount. But why? As more data pours in, we see how the answer to that question isn't actually Chinese. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFull text of President Xi Jinping's 2024 New Year messagehttps://english.news.cn/20231231/4e0fc2697d994cd2b4dcb5dca525a611/c.htmlNikkei Analysis: China's spy agency now watches for doomsayershttps://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-s-spy-agency-now-watches-for-doomsayersCNN China’s economy had a miserable year. 2024 might be even worsehttps://www.cnn.com/2023/12/27/economy/china-economy-challenges-2024-intl-hnk/index.htmlBloomberg China Home Sales Fall Again as Policy Shifts Fail to Stem Declinehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-31/china-home-sales-fall-again-as-policy-shifts-fail-to-stem-declineTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates #china #banks #xijinping

For quite a while there, you couldn't go long without hearing about how the 2020s were about to repeat the 1970s. That was never any real risk, but why? What is inflation? Where does it actually come from (spoiler: not the Fed)? Most important of all, how can we tell? The answer to all those questions are painfully clear, but once more Economics has the public thinking only backwards.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7#1940s #1970s #inflation #deflation #money #recession #federalreserve #fomc #interestrates