Eurodollar University

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarThis is getting ridiculous. We've become used to seeing Est. Survey vs. HH Survey in US labor data, but now it's Est. Survey vs. Est. Survey. The headline payroll number shows one thing, then the rest of the same data says the exact opposite. What in the hell is going on in the jobs report?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you're looking for a guide on collateral and how to spot shortfalls in it, get your copy of EDU's report on collateral shortages here:https://funnel.eurodollar.university/collateralThis isn't about a relatively small New York community bank no one had heard of until yesterday. The markets reactions to it were far more important than the details of that bank's announcement. There is not a whole lot of faith in banking, and it may be the ball is rolling once again on that front. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisNYCB Acquires Signature Assetshttps://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2023/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-THROUGH-ITS-BANK-SUBSIDIARY-FLAGSTAR-BANK-N.A.-ACQUIRES-CERTAIN-ASSETS-AND-ASSUMES-CERTAIN-LIABILITIES-OF-SIGNATURE-BRIDGE-BANK-FROM-THE-FDIC/default.aspxNYCB reports results for 2023https://ir.mynycb.com/news-and-events/news-releases/press-release-details/2024/NEW-YORK-COMMUNITY-BANCORP-INC.-REPORTS-RECORD-RESULTS-FOR-2023/default.aspxBloomberg Markets NY Community Bancorp Plunges as Real Estate Risks Jolt Markethttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/new-york-community-bancorp-slumps-on-surprise-loss-dividend-cut?fromMostRead=trueFOMC Statement January 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20240131a1.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Even though we don't yet have a topic or a possible guest scheduled, you can still sign up for the next EDU webinar anyway which will take place on Monday, February 19 at 6:30pm EDT. Link here:https://event.webinarjam.com/channel/EurodollarwebinarSuggest topics or someone to join Jeff on Presidents Day in the comments.Wild day in bonds has the market doing something highly unusual. There "shouldn't" be a rally in LT rates so soon after the last big one. Global markets are strong anyway which could be a warning about a couple things, from the monetary to the economy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Full interview with Brent Johnson on Eurodollar Dominancehttps://funnel.eurodollar.university/dollarYou won't believe how much debt our broke government issued last year. MULTIPLE trillions. At the same time, the Federal Reserve did three-quarters of a trillion USTs roll off its balance sheet (QT). Rather than destroy the Treasury market or bonds in general, quite the opposite has happened. You NEED to ask yourself WHY. There is no soft landing here.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTBAC Most Recent Quarterly Refundinghttps://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/quarterly-refunding/most-recent-quarterly-refunding-documentsTBAC Treasury Borrowing Estimates for Q1 2024https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2054https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

New York Fed's Empire PMI kicked off the January data cycle by plunging. In the meantime, the rest of the regional data filled in the picture for the month and the final one of the group ended up more like the first one than not. We shouldn't underestimate the usefulness of these surveys especially since there are numerous signs, however long it might end up being, this is still a cycle. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTexas Manufacturing Outlook Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2024/2401#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

To see the rest of Jeff's conversation with Hugh, become an EDU member or DDA subscriber. There is so much more available for EDU members and subscribers, starting with loads of background material, video series like the Basics, multi-part presentations, Q&A vids, Classroom pieces that go over the crucial parts of money and the eurodollar system. Subscribers to EDU's Deep Dive Analysis (DDA) get daily deep dives into current events, what's really happening and what they mean. We are having an "unadvertised" sales so you can take advantage of our best offer packaging the DDA and a membership together while also including our Daily Briefing, too. All the details here:https://www.eurodollar.university/sales-page-1Eurodollar University's Guest Conversations: Hugh Hendryhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The Fed keeps having to screw around with what should be its primary job. The Fed is now trying to go back to the past with its Discount Window, hoping to fix it so the program might work this time. Officials are in a bind being forced to unwind the BTFP after unintentionally granting too generous terms. What are they missing? Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For those in the Soft Landing USA camp, there was everything in today's Q4 2023 GDP report. Growth rate, consumers, an even more solid dose of disinflation. Near perfect Goldilocks. So why wasn't it taken that way in the market? Some answers from Europe. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Lagarde Says It’s Likely ECB Will Cut Rates in Summerhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-17/davos-2024-lagarde-says-agressive-rate-cut-bets-don-t-help-ecbECB Monetary Policy Statementhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2024/html/ecb.is240125~db0f145c32.en.htmlBloomberg  Lagarde’s Talk of Summer ECB Cut Sees Traders Bet on Aprilhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/ecb-s-lagarde-stands-by-comments-on-likely-summer-rate-cuthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The podcast discusses the recent emergency measures announced by the Chinese government, the reluctance of Chinese banks to lend, concerns about real estate funding, and the plan to rescue shares through offshore funds. It also analyzes the state of the Chinese Yuan, explores the actions of Chinese banks in the currency market, and assesses the risks and consequences of China's economic unwind.

Beside the S&P 500, Japan's Nikkei 225 has been basking in the global spotlight. Surging to its highest in decades and not all that far anymore from its own all-time mark, it might seem Japanese equity investors are expressing loads of confidence from the Asian perspective. Just like US indices, however, there are a number of reasons to look at the Nikkei with caution - starting with China and then going from there. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU