Eurodollar University

This podcast discusses China's economy collapse with low loan growth, missed GDP targets, and retail sales decline. It also covers Xi Jinping's power rise and ineffective stimulus efforts, revealing struggles in banking and real estate sectors.

Financial expert Steve Van Metre discusses the Japanese government's futile attempts to prop up the yen, highlighting the broader truth about monetary systems globally. Topics include central bank interventions, currency dynamics, impact of weakening Asian economies, and the consequences of a strengthening dollar on the US economy.

There was an unnoticed yet absolutely critical detail in the June CPI report that pointed to a lot more than just benign disinflation, a development that has only rarely been observed in decades of history. More disturbing still, the context behind this one is consistent with those few past instances including a few new pieces of subsequent information. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFOMC Transcript April 2010https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20100428meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The June consumer price estimates at first seemed like good news. Two months in a row at low and now negative changes. But these past two months have shown a little more weakness than most had bargained for, instead so many of the details consistent with recession indications spilling out from all over the economy. No wonder bond yields dropped sharply, though, alarmingly, swap spreads got there well before today. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBLS June 2024 CPIhttps://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdfBloomberg Stocks See Big Rotation as Yields Sink on Fed Bets: Markets Wraphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updatesEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-salehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly desperate over their inability to stabilize any of the economy, banking system, or markets. CNY keeps going down, as does the economy. Banks in China aren't lending while dozens are now 'disappearing.' Safety/liquidity of government bonds makes perfect sense. Not to the PBOC which is going to be shorting it by hundreds of billions and this is why.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleBloomberg Closer Yen, Yuan Correlation Is Danger Sign for Asian Currencieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-10/closer-yen-yuan-correlation-is-danger-sign-for-asian-currencies?srnd=economics-v2X Video showing Jiangxi Bank 'protest'https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1810456112652779538The Economist Why Chinese banks are now vanishinghttps://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/07/04/why-chinese-banks-are-now-vanishingBloomberg China Merges Hundreds of Rural Banks as Financial Risks Mounthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-merges-hundreds-of-rural-banks-as-financial-risks-mountBloomberg China's PBOC Readies Multibillion-Yuan Pool of Bonds to Sell by Tapping Major Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-05/pboc-readies-hundreds-of-billions-of-yuan-bond-sale-capacityCNN Chinese government bonds are on fire. That’s ringing alarm bells in Beijinghttps://www.cnn.com/2024/07/03/business/china-bond-market-bank-crisis-svb-intl-hnk/index.htmlChina NBS June 2024 CPIhttps://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202407/t20240710_1955508.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

From 'strong and resilient' to 'uh oh' in a heartbeat. The unemployment rate has intruded itself on the soft landing narrative, forcing a near-total rethink of the situation all across the mainstream. Some major bank strategists are now calling for aggressive rate cuts from the Fed at the same time the yield curve is beginning to flash bull. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY ANNIVERSARY SALE PAGEhttps://www.eurodollar.university/anniversary-saleFed Chair Powell testimony (courtesy CBS News)https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Og8W_VK1gMMFed Chair Powell prepared remarks before Congresshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/powell20240709a.htmCNBC The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicatorhttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/18/economist-sahm-who-devised-recession-rule-says-the-fed-is-playing-with-fire-.htmlFortune The Fed could slash rates by 200 points over 8 straight meetings as the economy heads for a sharper downtrend, Citi sayshttps://fortune.com/2024/07/07/fed-rate-cuts-outlook-200-points-economy-sharper-slowdown-citi/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Political turmoil in Europe is very easy to understand. The European economy is supposed to be recovering from its unofficial recession, and yet the most recent data shows instead alarming (re)acceleration to the downside in a number of places. Realizing this means the path to clawing back some of the supply shock's price increases is disappearing, voters are simply voting accordingly. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPew Research Center Economic ratings across 34 countries are more negative than positivehttps://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/06/07/economic-ratings-across-34-countries-are-more-negative-than-positive/World Bank Global trade has nearly flatlined. Populism is taking a toll on growthhttps://blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/global-trade-has-nearly-flatlined-populism-taking-toll-growthUN Trade and Development  Global economic growth set to slow to 2.6% in 2024, just above recession thresholdhttps://unctad.org/news/global-economic-growth-set-slow-26-2024-just-above-recession-thresholdhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Unemployment in the US is now steadily moving higher. The June 2024 employment report contained more substantial downward revisions, evidence more employers are cutting hours, and most concerning is another increase to the unemployment rate. And, contrary to many claims, it's not the "good" kind of rising unemployment.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBLS Employment Situation Summary June 2024https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmBloomberg The US Economic Slowdown Is Looking More Threateninghttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-05/us-jobs-report-economic-slowdown-is-looking-more-threateningFOMC June 2024 Minuteshttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20240612.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

According to multiple recent reports, banks are very quietly selling out of CRE positions. Those reports are backed up by banking data which clearly shows an inflection in systemic loans in the space. Combined, we have strong evidence showing the second stage of the CRE bust has now started. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Big US banks withstand Fed's commercial real estate shock scenariohttps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/big-us-banks-withstand-feds-commercial-real-estate-shock-scenario-2024-06-26/Federal Reserve Stress Test Results 2024https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/2024-dfast-results-20240626.pdfNYT Office Building Losses Start to Pile Up, and More Pain Is Expectedhttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/business/office-building-foreclosures-losses.htmlNYT Fearing Losses, Banks Are Quietly Dumping Real Estate Loanshttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/commercial-real-estate-loans.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Explore the transition from physical currency to ledger money and the potential role of Bitcoin. Debunk myths about Bitcoin as a replacement for the dollar. Analyze the utility of the dollar as a reserve currency and its impact on global transactions. Discuss the international dynamics of the Euro Dollar system and challenges in evolving reserve currencies.