Eurodollar University

Sign up for our free March 24 webinar right here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/27/l3k2rby6Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPolitico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spendinghttps://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdfWilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Target issued another warning on the economy and then joined Best Buy as merely the first to say they're raising prices. While that may sound inflationary, it's the opposite and will end up pushing interest rates even lower. Those are already happening in the market, in part as markets more confidently price how the Fed is going to have to follow along, too. Just like last summer. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Target, Best Buy Warn US Consumers of Tariff Price Hikeshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/target-sees-flat-sales-this-year-warns-of-risk-from-tariffsBloomberg Traders Pile Into Fed Rate-Cut Bets as Tariffs Roil Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-04/us-yield-curve-steepens-on-growth-angst-with-tariffs-now-realityAtlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Sales are plummeting at Mercedes-Benz, sparking fears of a broader economic downturn. The company’s plans for job cuts reflect a troubling trend in the luxury market, indicating that growth might be slipping away permanently. As bond yields fall and stock markets feel the heat, concerns mount over consumer confidence and rising costs in manufacturing. The signals are mixed, but the looming specter of recession is becoming harder to ignore.

Steve Van Metre, an expert in economic indicators and market trends, shares valuable insights on the current financial turmoil. The conversation highlights concerns over a resurging 'growth scare' impacting oil, stocks, and crypto. Van Metre discusses the troubling drop in GDP projections from the Atlanta Fed, leading to investor caution. Rising consumer fears and declining confidence are explored, as savings rates rise amidst economic uncertainties. It's a must-listen for anyone seeking to understand the shifting landscape of today's markets.

A new leader at the Reserve Bank of India is struggling to stabilize the rupee as India's dollar short position skyrockets to a record $77.5 billion. The country faces economic instability with GDP growth faltering and the dollar surging. Meanwhile, trends in other currencies, such as the declining Australian dollar, mirror these challenges, raising concerns about global economic repercussions. The discussion highlights the tangled web of monetary policy and currency dynamics shaping India's future.

European banks are surging into safety, buying the third most on record in January. At the same time, they scaled back activities in the real economy expecting further deterioration. Their behavior also backs up market pricing especially interest rates, while also exposing the fallacy behind them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisECB BLS Q4 2024https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China is launching a substantial bank bailout, injecting over $55 billion into major banks amidst rising credit and liquidity crises. The podcast discusses the troubling state of China's banking system, characterized by bad loans and growing turmoil. Strategies for recapitalization are explored, alongside historical precedents for bailouts. Listeners will find insights into the complex financial landscape and the urgent need for intervention, raising questions about the effectiveness of these measures in addressing deeper economic challenges.

Interest rates have dipped sharply, leading to a concerning reinversion of the yield curve, which raises red flags about economic growth. This shift reflects a steep decline in consumer confidence and highlights a loss of momentum, particularly in the services sector. The Federal Reserve's slow response to these signs is also under scrutiny. As market skepticism grows towards the Fed's rate-setting efficacy, the podcast delves into the implications for precious metals investors amid looming recession signals.

Is the AI bubble about to burst? A Wall Street report suggests vulnerabilities in AI investments, especially after Microsoft canceled data center leases. The discussion highlights alarming parallels with the dot-com bubble, pointing to investor sentiment and high valuations without substantial gains. Concerns rise over South Korea's economic challenges, with weakening exports and stagnant demand painting a troubling picture. Strategies for navigating this uncertain landscape are also explored, urging caution as market signals hint at potential downturns.

Steve Van Metre, an economic expert, shares his insights on alarming trends in consumer behavior and the U.S. economy. He highlights Walmart's pivot to house brands due to financial strain, suggesting a deeper crisis. The conversation delves into the risks of stagflation as rising costs outstrip wage growth, revealing a disconnect between consumer spending and economic recovery narratives. Additionally, rising unemployment and global economic challenges exacerbate fears, prompting consumers to cut back on major expenses.