Eurodollar University

The podcast dives into the troubling signs of a goods recession, with major companies like Nestlé and Unilever reporting disappointing sales. It highlights the automotive sector's struggles, including rising inventories and declining consumer demand. The discussion extends to the disconnection between expected and actual energy recovery in China versus the U.S. economy. Finally, it emphasizes how rising unemployment creates a vicious cycle that threatens to deepen the recession, impacting consumer spending and overall economic stability.

Most Americans believe the country is in a recession, despite a surprising 2.8% GDP growth in the second quarter. The podcast delves into the contradictions between positive economic reports and public sentiment, highlighting fears of a goods recession. It also discusses underlying issues like increasing unemployment and a shrinking goods sector, emphasizing that surface-level growth may mask deeper economic troubles. Tune in to explore why consumer discontent might pose risks to future stability.

The U.S. Treasury curve is experiencing significant bull moves, reflecting unsettling economic signals. Luxury conglomerate LVMH reports a revenue miss, indicating consumer spending is on the decline, particularly among the affluent. Former Fed members advocate for urgent rate cuts, sparking debates on their timeliness. Meanwhile, central banks, like the Bank of Canada, are also slashing rates, but concerns grow over whether these measures can combat looming recession fears. The luxury market is feeling the pressure as middle-class consumers face economic challenges.

Replay of the livestream Member Q&A 100 epic discussion. George. Jim. Steve. Mike. Eric. Brent. Emil and Jeff back together again. Two hours of back and forth. Including why Home Alone lied to you.There was so much all in one place. Spirited back and forth between all the fellas, a real deep dive in true Eurodollar University style. Arguing about the past. Angling toward the future. Even a few questions from EDU members. We just might have to do this again. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

China's dollar woes have jumped in recent months, so much that they've come out of the eurodollar shadows enough to impact the onshore banking system in an unexpected way. Foreign holdings of negotiable bank CDs have exploded. We'll discuss what that means and how it relates to China's dollar shortage and the surprise set of rate cuts announced by the PBOC earlier today.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Global Funds Pile Up Nearly a Trillion Yuan of China Bank Bondshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/global-funds-pile-up-nearly-a-trillion-yuan-of-china-bank-bondsBloomberg China Surprises With Rate Cut After Xi’s Big Meeting Disappointshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-22/pboc-cuts-seven-day-reverse-repo-rate-to-1-7-to-support-economyhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Delving into the current job market woes in the US, the podcast discusses the challenges of job scarcity and high unemployment rates. They explore the implications of rising initial and continued claims on the economy, the struggles of businesses in finding qualified labor, and the complexities of Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Additionally, they analyze bank behavior during recessions and question the effectiveness of Fed rate cuts.

All year all anyone has heard is the Fed and its rate cuts. Soft landings imply a little weakness but no worry, Jay Powell will cut rates once maybe twice and everything will be just fine. The only question is, why on earth does anyone believe this? The evidence and history of interest rate targeting - as you'll see - is indeed 100%, as in total failure. Rate cuts (like hikes) are pure superstition. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityPBS Is the Fed going to cut interest rates? What was once a question of ‘when’ is now less certainhttps://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/is-the-fed-going-to-cut-interest-rates-what-was-once-a-question-of-when-is-now-less-certainMorningstar We Expect GDP Growth to Weaken Until Fed Starts Cutting Interest Rateshttps://www.morningstar.com/economy/we-expect-gdp-growth-weaken-until-fed-starts-cutting-interest-ratesFOMC Transcript March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfRemarks by Chairman Alan GreenspanRules vs. discretionary monetary policyAt the 15th Anniversary Conference of the Center for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University, Stanford, CaliforniaSeptember 5, 1997https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/1997/19970905.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In the midst of other major warnings, here comes another substantial one. Copper has moved way past its supply squeezed record high from just two months ago and is now crashing. At the same time, gold is reaching new heights. The copper to gold ratio therefore just dropped to its lowest since...November 2020. Taking a deeper look at what all this means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityBloomberg China’s Unusually Large Copper Stockpiles Fuel Demand Concernshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-05/china-s-unusually-large-copper-stockpiles-fuel-demand-concernsBloomberg Gold Slips From Record High as Traders Ponder Bet on Fed Pivothttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/gold-holds-at-record-high-as-rate-cut-bets-fuel-demand-rushhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Swaps are of paramount importance to the financial world, priced by the very monetary system itself. As a consequence, swap market indications are even more critical than the yield curve. But what does it all mean, and how can you decipher what appear its confusing signals? A few minutes on some manageable basics and you're ready to read the market's big move.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another part of the yield curve un-inverted, this time the short to long segment. Demonstrating the perpetual inability to make sense of it, mainstream sources are suggesting some "Trump trade" is behind this. No. Unequivocally no. The classic bull case is building and this is merely the latest nascent signal. It isn't complete yet, but incoming data including today's negative retail sales continues to suggest the same case.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S LIVESTREAM NEXT TUESDAY, 7/23 btw 6 - 8 pm ETEURODOLLAR UNIVERSITY'S ANNIVERSARY SALE:https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUNYT 30-year U.S. bond is back in big wayhttps://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/09/business/worldbusiness/30year-us-bond-is-back-in-big-way.html