The ECB Podcast

What are inflation expectations? How do our personal experiences shape them? And why do they matter to central banks? In this episode of The ECB Podcast, our host Stefania Secola and researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos discuss how people form expectations about inflation and how we measure them. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 26 April 2024 and recorded on 19 April 2024. In this episode: 01:35 – Inflation expectations What are inflation expectations, and why do they matter for central banks? How do people form such expectations? 9:25 – The impact on prices Can inflation expectations shape the prices we end up paying? How might personal perceptions influence wages? 11:30 – Measuring inflation expectations Why is it important to measure inflation expectations, and how do we do it at the ECB? What were the findings of our latest survey? 16:38 – The role of the ECB What can the ECB do to inform people’s inflation expectations? And what role can communication play in this? 21:15 – Our guests’ hot tips ECB researchers Geoff Kenny and Dimitris Georgarakos share their hot tips and some final thoughts with our listeners. ECB Consumer Expectations Survey https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/consumer_exp_survey/html/index.en.html Working Paper: Tell me something I don’t already know: learning in low and high-inflation settings, March 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2914~d6a8832bf5.en.pdf?e655c8b68e7c2fb096387a4da34c42e6 Research Bulletin: Recent changes in consumers’ medium-term inflation expectations – a detailed look, February 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/research-publications/resbull/2023/html/ecb.rb230224~558beec65c.en.html Economic Bulletin issue 3/2024: Trust in the ECB – insights from the Consumer Expectations Survey, April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202403.en.html#toc24 European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: - how the economy is performing - how we expect prices to develop - the risks to the economic outlook - the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 11 April 2024 Additional material Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/visual-mps/2024/html/mopo_statement_explained_april.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/2024/html/ecb.is240411~9974984b58.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240411~1345644915.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 11 April 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/press_conference/monetary-policy-statement/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240411~58dd9ec73d.en.pdf?566c397f0364d717913bf7770e67bf17 European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast

We have made good progress in our fight against inflation since we started to tighten our monetary policy in 2022. Where do we stand right now? And what are we keeping a close eye on in the economy? Host Stefania Secola discusses these topics with our Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. They also talk about the ECB’s recent changes to its operational framework for implementing monetary policy. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 25 March 2024 and recorded on 21 March 2024. In this episode: 01:23 – Inflation right now How has inflation evolved since its peak in late 2022? What is the outlook for the year ahead and what will shape our future decisions? 03:30 – Wages and inflation How are rising wages affecting inflation, and is the situation the same across all euro area countries? 09:54 – The state of the labour market Unemployment is historically low, but economic growth is projected to be lower than in previous years. What might the coming months hold for the labour market? 13:54 – The ECB’s operational framework Why have we reviewed our operational framework for implementing monetary policy? How does it help our work to keep prices stable? 19:02 – Our guest’s hot tip Our guest, Philip R. Lane, encourages our listeners to read a paper that looks at the macroeconometric models used at the ECB for forecasting and policy analysis. Further Reading: The ECB Podcast: Are wages and greedflation really pushing up prices? June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230623_episode62.en.html Occasional Paper 344: ECB macroeconometric models for forecasting and policy analysis https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op344~53b9e2aa4d.en.pdf?14821c7f99280514dbdaa26114c4f565 Press release: ECB announces changes to the operational framework for implementing monetary policy https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr240313_1~a3a50a9add.en.html Economic Bulletin Issue 2/2024, Article 1: The impact of recent shocks and ongoing structural changes on euro area productivity growth https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2024/html/ecb.ebart202402_01~d63ecff49c.en.html Press release: Monetary policy decisions (7 March 2024) https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240307~a5fa52b82b.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

President Lagarde discusses the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates, aiming for future growth and 2% inflation. They cover economic performance, price expectations, risks, and financial conditions. Analysis includes economic activity, inflation, employment trends, risks, and interest rate decisions.

Did you know that euro banknotes are getting a makeover? As the euro turns 25, let’s look at the road ahead for our banknotes. What will future euro banknotes look like, why do we need them, and when can we start using them? Join our host Stefania Secola and Sarai Artiles, who works on banknote communications, to find out more. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 10 February 2024 and recorded on 1 February 2024. In this episode: 00:05 – The euro is turning 25 The euro unites us – it is used by 350 million people in 20 countries! Euro banknotes are a physical reminder of our shared identity. 01:56 – Why are we redesigning euro banknotes? Security, environmental aspects and relatability: these are just some of the reasons we are designing a new series of euro banknotes. 05:28 – Many cultures, one euro Euro banknotes are used by people with different backgrounds, cultures, and languages. How can future banknotes represent them all? 08:50 – What will they look like? “European culture” and “Rivers and birds” have been selected as the themes for future euro banknotes. Does this mean we already know what they’ll look like? 10:20 – When can we start using them? We have the themes, but what’s next in the banknote redesign process? When can we expect to start using these new banknotes? 12:30 – Our guest’s hot tip Additional material: Press release: ECB selects “European culture” and “Rivers and birds” as possible themes for future euro banknotes https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr231130~cad7fa27ab.en.html Press release: ECB surveys Europeans on new themes for euro banknotes https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2023/html/ecb.pr230710~77cf718c59.en.html Podcast: All you need to know about euro banknotes https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod220205_episode27.en.html Webpage: FAQ on the redesign of euro banknotes https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/future_banknotes/html/ecb.faq_banknotes_redesign.en.html Webpage: The redesign process https://www.ecb.europa.eu/euro/banknotes/future_banknotes/redesign/html/index.en.html European Central Bank http://www.ecb.europa.eu/

What lies ahead on our path to a greener future? How can we assess the impact of extreme weather on the economy? And how can we tackle financial risks from nature loss and degradation? With its new climate and nature plan, the ECB is stepping up its work in these areas over the next two years. Our host Stefania Secola discusses this and more with the head of the ECB’s climate change centre, Irene Heemskerk. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 31 January 2024 and recorded on 23 January 2024. In this episode: 01:00 – The ECB’s work on climate What has the ECB done so far to help tackle climate change, what does it plan to focus on going forward and why is this work important? 04:35 – The intensifying climate crisis As global temperatures rise and extreme climate events become more frequent and more devastating, what is the impact on the economy and the financial system? What can the ECB do about it? 07:40– Keeping the green transition on course Time is running out to contain global warming and meet the Paris Agreement targets. Governments are in the driving seat but we’re all heading in the same direction. How can economic analysis contribute to these efforts, and how can we unlock the funds needed to keep the green transition moving forward? 13:15 – Defining a role for monetary policy The ECB has already tilted its corporate bond holdings towards issuers with better climate performance. What else can it do, within its mandate, to support the green transition? What role can interest rates play? 15:00 – From climate change to environmental crises: nature and biodiversity loss Euro area firms and banks are highly dependent on nature, but nature is being rapidly devastated by human activity. What are the economic and financial risks stemming from nature degradation? 17:22 - Our guest’s hot tip ECB climate change centre head Irene Heemskerk shares her hot tip with our listeners. Additional material: Press release: ECB steps up climate work with focus on green transition, climate and nature-related risks, 30 January 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.pr240130~afa3d90e07.en.html The ECB’s climate and nature plan 2024-25 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/our-climate-and-nature-plan/html/index.en.html Climate change and the ECB https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/climate/html/index.en.html The ECB’s publications on climate change https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/search/html/climate_change.en.html The ECB Podcast: What biodiversity and nature loss mean for our economy, 25 November 2023 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP3tRzELPLY European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu

Today our Governing Council decided on monetary policy, determining what’s needed to return inflation to our 2% goal in a timely manner. Listen to President Christine Lagarde present today’s decisions. The statement also covers: - how the economy is performing - how we expect prices to develop - the risks to the economic outlook - the dynamics behind financial and monetary conditions Published and recorded during our press conference on 25 January 2024. Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 25 January 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2024/html/mopo_statement_explained_january.en.html Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos: Monetary policy statement, 25 January 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2024/html/ecb.is240125~db0f145c32.en.html Monetary policy decisions, 25 January 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2024/html/ecb.mp240125~f738889bde.en.html Combined monetary policy decisions and statement, 25 January 2024 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/shared/pdf/ecb.ds240125~d65b43331a.en.pdf European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more pod.link/ecbpodcast

President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions and discusses factors influencing interest rate decisions, plans to normalize the balance sheet, and expectations for inflation reaching the target of 2% in 2025. The episode also covers the Euro-area economy, labor market impact, changes in financial and monetary conditions, and concerns about financial stability.

Outgoing Supervisory Board Chair Andrea Enria sat down with President Christine Lagarde during the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision to look back on his five-year term, marked by challenges such as the pandemic and reflects on the most difficult decision he had to take. He also reflects on the decisions taken to overcome these challenges, and what the future holds for European banking supervision. Recorded on 1 December 2023 and published on 9 December 2023. Additional material: President Christine Lagarde’s welcome address at the fifth ECB Forum on Banking Supervision https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp231130~48f5947179.en.html ECB Forum on Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20231130_5th_ECB_Forum_Banking_supervision.en.html European Banking Supervision https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu

How are financial markets reacting to higher rates, a sluggish economy and geopolitical tensions? Should we worry about property markets? Our host Stefania Secola puts these questions to financial stability expert John Fell on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 2 December 2023 and recorded on 27 November 2023. In this episode: 01:08 – Financial markets’ optimism is put to the test How are financial markets reacting to the new environment of high interest rates, a sluggish economy and rising geopolitical tensions? 06:00 – The conundrum of banks’ increasing profits and stagnant valuations Banks’ profits are at multi-year highs, yet their valuations haven’t changed much. What factors explain this? 10:31 – Real estate markets are a source of concern Residential and commercial property markets are feeling the impact of higher interest rates. What are the implications for banks and financial stability? 16:06 – The yin and the yang of financial stability As the credit cycle turns, and with several vulnerabilities unravelling, can resilience compensate? 18:22 – Conclusion Additional material: Financial Stability Review, November 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/index.en.html FSR Box 5 on Euro area bank fundamentals, valuations and cost of equity https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.html#toc27 Special feature B on Real estate markets in an environment of high financing costs https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202311~bfe9d7c565.en.html#toc40 The ECB Podcast: Financial stability and bank runs, June 2023 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod230607_episode60.en.html European Central Bank www.ecb.europa.eu